Which of these is the most likely to happen?
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  Which of these is the most likely to happen?		 « previous next »
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Question: Which of these is the most likely to happen?
#1
Republicans flip a Chicagoland seat in IL		  
#2
Republicans flip an NJ seat besides NJ-07		  
#3
Republicans flip an OR seat besides OR-05		  
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Total Voters: 8

Author Topic: Which of these is the most likely to happen?  (Read 135 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: August 07, 2022, 09:16:24 PM »
Which of these is the most likely to happen?
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2022, 09:41:01 PM »
Chicagoland because there are 4 different possiblities. In NJ, all the Dem seats are already pretty D and have solid incumbents, and in Oregon I think it's less likely we'll see a dramatic turnout dropoff on the Dem side that would cost them any of the seats.

IL-06 which contains a lot of heavily religious suburbs and has really had pretty neutral shifts overall would be the most likely IMO. IL-11 comes in a close second as it's basically the definition of moderate suburbanites who voted Romney-Trump-Biden or Romney-Clinton-Biden.
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