Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano? (user search)
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  Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano?
#1
Kari Lake
 
#2
Doug Mastriano
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Stronger candidate for the GOP: Lake or Mastriano?  (Read 651 times)
ProgressiveModerate
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,176


« on: August 06, 2022, 01:58:42 AM »

Lake is a longtime news anchor with name recognition and experience in playing an audience (this matters because people vote for a package and not for a set of ideological beliefs), can claim the outsider/celebrity banner for herself, actually manages to stay on message most of the time (whereas Mastriano's campaign - from what Iíve seen - lacks a coherent message and basically just consists of incoherent rambling that can make you feel really uneasy at times), and is also more charismatic than Mastriano (who, letís be honest here, looks incredibly threatening and gives off actual skinhead and neo-Nazi vibes). Democrats have also had more success in PA than AZ at the local level, and Iíd expect that disparity to be amplified in a midterm where presidential/national trends tend to lag a little and local issues and candidates still matter to a great extent (which is why you get results like Scott winning in FL but Democrats holding far more Republican states like WV or MT in 2018, Hogan winning MD-GOV while Kobach loses in KS, etc.). PA also voted to the left of AZ in 2020, and thereís every reason to believe that virtually any other Republican President running in a year with the same fundamentals that Trump was benefiting from/had to navigate would have carried AZ in 2020.

I donít think Lake is really a worse candidate than Jan Brewer was, but I can see how Mastriano would genuinely scare people. AZ-GOV would still be Lean R with Lake in my view, but PA-GOV would be a Toss-up at best with Mastriano, even in a Republican wave.

Imo, it really depends upon how Lake campaigns over these next few months. She has the possiblity to run on her former status as a news anchor, chill on some of the rhetoric a bit, and really make herself likeable to a lot of folks, particularly those who don't have strong ideological convictions.

On the flip side though, never underestimate some of these candidates abilities on the Republican side to just end up making a fool of themselves. A good recent example in AZ would be McSally who went from a decently likeable conservative female veteran to just a mess. Had she run her 2020 campaign with the same convictions as 2018 she may have been able to hold Kelly closer or even win.

I don't think there's any way in which being a popular news anchor would *hurt* Lake though, it's just really how much she makes it help herself.
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