Lake vs. Mastriano
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  Lake vs. Mastriano
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Author Topic: Lake vs. Mastriano  (Read 592 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 07, 2022, 03:56:27 PM »

Why is it that people think that Mastriano would be an underdog if he got the nomination but Lake would be favored?

I know Arizona has historically been much more Republican, but the two states only voted about one point apart in 2020. And both are equally nuts.
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2022, 04:17:02 PM »

Why is it that people think that Mastriano would be an underdog if he got the nomination but Lake would be favored?

I know Arizona has historically been much more Republican, but the two states only voted about one point apart in 2020. And both are equally nuts.

Shapiro has been elected statewide twice and outrun the top of the ticket by 3-4% both times. He also had no primary opposition and didn't need to take any leftist positions out of the mainstream. His base is the Philly metro and he will probably substantially out-fundraise Mastriano.
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GregTheGreat657
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2022, 04:55:48 PM »

Katie Hobbs is a worse candidate than Josh Shapiro
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2022, 07:54:44 PM »

Why is it that people think that Mastriano would be an underdog if he got the nomination but Lake would be favored?

I know Arizona has historically been much more Republican, but the two states only voted about one point apart in 2020. And both are equally nuts.

Shapiro has been elected statewide twice and outrun the top of the ticket by 3-4% both times. He also had no primary opposition and didn't need to take any leftist positions out of the mainstream. His base is the Philly metro and he will probably substantially out-fundraise Mastriano.
Doug Mastriano has a very big following due to his Facebook “Fireside Chats” and I’ve even seen Trump supporters here in Monmouth County wearing shirts with his weird catchphrases “Walk as Free People” and “We Don’t Dither.” Due to his huge following, I would expect Doug Mastriano to defeat Josh Shapiro by around a 2% margin.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2022, 08:19:40 PM »

Ducey won by landslides and she is underperforming Ducey because she said Trump won the only poll we got was Lake 41/40 leading D's she is not the fav it's a Tossup
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2022, 09:57:39 AM »

I'd consider both races Tilt R.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2022, 10:44:27 AM »


Lake in the only poll we had was leading 41/40 well within the margin of error
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ConservativeRepublican
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2022, 10:45:01 AM »

Both races are Lean R. Mastriano is a good fit for PA and will win easily.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2022, 10:53:52 AM »

Both races are Lean R. Mastriano is a good fit for PA and will win easily.

There's no GE poll
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ConservativeRepublican
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2022, 11:02:02 AM »

Both races are Lean R. Mastriano is a good fit for PA and will win easily.

There's no GE poll
And we're going to start trusting polls now? After the last few cycles? Hell no.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2022, 11:10:30 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2022, 11:14:12 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Both races are Lean R. Mastriano is a good fit for PA and will win easily.

There's no GE poll
And we're going to start trusting polls now? After the last few cycles? Hell no.

Yeah Trump overperformed and the polls has a D bias and he has the same Approvals as Biden has now 44)54, that's hypocritical on the part of Rs, Biden says he doesn't believe those 44 percent polls either he said that D's are gonna overperform like Rs did under Trump on EDay

Rs are basing everything off of Biden low Approvals , we may not win a landslide but a 303 map with 129 M votes and AZ, NV, MI, PA, NH, GA and WI are well within the margin of error we are running Mark Kelly not Kyrsten Sinema and Maricopa went strongly for Biden, Kelly can pull our nominee whomever it is over the top due to Maricopa county
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2022, 11:37:53 AM »

Shapiro is pretty overrated, to be honest. He only won re-election narrowly in 2020 against a nobody Republican.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2022, 12:00:03 PM »

Shapiro and Fetterman as a tag team like Wolf and Casey won in 2018 are electable PA is a D plus 4 state anyways but beware we didn't win those elections in the tipping pt states like last time by 2 or 4 pts it was within 100 K votes Provisional ballots will put us over the top like in GA if the election is within the margin of error .


We haven't seen any polls in those States
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2022, 01:40:16 PM »

Shapiro is pretty overrated, to be honest. He only won re-election narrowly in 2020 against a nobody Republican.

He outperformed the rest of the ticket pretty strongly. He's as strong as the Pennsylvania Democrats could get, besides maybe Fetterman running here instead of for Senate.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2022, 01:58:36 PM »
« Edited: May 08, 2022, 02:02:18 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Shapiro is pretty overrated, to be honest. He only won re-election narrowly in 2020 against a nobody Republican.

He outperformed the rest of the ticket pretty strongly. He's as strong as the Pennsylvania Democrats could get, besides maybe Fetterman running here instead of for Senate.

WI, MI, PA, AZ, NV and GA are strong states, if need be it will come down to  Provisions ballots like last time and we are gonna still win them Biden never won 60/40 he won 50/45 and he is at 45/50 now and Turnout will help him


Users forget that Trump didn't win WI, MI and PA by that much either along with Biden they were within 50K Votes and that was helped by Jill Stein and Gary Johnson and with Russia

It's VBM it's unpredictable and we are getting quick results because primary are landslide but GE aren't landslide
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The Pieman
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2022, 12:59:08 AM »

Lake may have far-right policies but she presents herself in a moderate way. It's like the fabled "Trumpism without Trump".
Meanwhile Mastriano is a loud booming bald military guy who always looks angry and extreme.
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coloradocowboi
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2022, 11:00:35 AM »

I don’t think there is a difference at all. They both are risky candidates in races their party would probably be favored to win with a more moderate pick or even a just less rightwing pick. They risk making the election a referendum on Trump, which is pretty much the only way a GOP candidate could lose this fall in a state like PA or AZ
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2022, 10:08:10 AM »

Lake can claim she's a political outsider, Mastriano can't do that
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Respect and Compassion
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2022, 10:18:10 AM »

Both races are Lean R. Mastriano is a good fit for PA and will win easily.

Both Lake and Mastriano seem to be capable of talking about issues that appeal beyond their base, so you may actually be right, unfortunately.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2022, 01:59:46 PM »

Lake is a longtime news anchor with name recognition and experience in playing an audience (this matters because people vote for a package and not for a set of ideological beliefs), can claim the outsider/celebrity banner for herself, actually manages to stay on message most of the time (whereas Mastriano's campaign - from what I’ve seen - lacks a coherent message and basically just consists of incoherent rambling that can make you feel really uneasy at times), and is also more charismatic than Mastriano (who, let’s be honest here, looks incredibly threatening and gives off actual skinhead and neo-Nazi vibes). Democrats have also had more success in PA than AZ at the local level, and I’d expect that disparity to be amplified in a midterm where presidential/national trends tend to lag a little and local issues and candidates still matter to a great extent (which is why you get results like Scott winning in FL but Democrats holding far more Republican states like WV or MT in 2018, Hogan winning MD-GOV while Kobach loses in KS, etc.). PA also voted to the left of AZ in 2020, and there’s every reason to believe that virtually any other Republican President running in a year with the same fundamentals that Trump was benefiting from/had to navigate would have carried AZ in 2020.

I don’t think Lake is really a worse candidate than Jan Brewer was, but I can see how Mastriano would genuinely scare people. AZ-GOV would still be Lean R with Lake in my view, but PA-GOV would be a Toss-up at best with Mastriano, even in a Republican wave.
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