I don’t think any states would be a safe yes
Equivalent constitutional amendments have already passed in Tennessee (2014), Alabama (2018), West Virginia (2018), and Louisiana (2020). The Tennessee and West Virginia amendments barely passed. In Alabama, it ran even with the statewide Republicans in 2018. The Louisiana amendment actually ran ahead of Trump in 2020!
One could argue that none of this matters because it was all theoretical back then. I'm not sure about this, though, because the Louisiana amendment was voted on after Barrett's high profile confirmation and the Alabama and West Virginia amendments were both voted on after Kavanaugh's high profile confirmation.
I do think the earlier Southern results still point to passage in Kentucky this fall, but I expect something like 54/46, not the Trump/Biden margin. So that's 5 states. From there, I'm quite confident it would pass in Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The other possibilities are Utah, Idaho,
and Wyoming. If there's enough of a libertarian revolt, it may not pass in any of those, though. I'll say they get the 8 core Southern states and just 1 of the super Republican Western states.
