When did German failure become virtually certain in WW2?

[TheReckoning]

In your opinion, when was Germany’s defeat in WW2 pretty much a guarantee? I would say Option 6.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably when it invaded the USSR. I'm not gonna do the meme and say it's impossible to invade Russia, but trying to invade Russia while pursuing a grinding war with a US-armed Britain (and the increasing likelihood that the US was going to intervene eventually, was always going to be a recipe for disaster. Hitler's best bet was always going to be to wait out the UK until they broke and negotiated a separate peace. Then if he really wanted to stick it to Stalin he should probably have waited at least a few years to consolidate his hold over continental Europe and rebuild his strength. Of course even then it would have been a tall order, but at least he wouldn't have forced himself into the situation that even the Kaiserreich was desperately trying to avoid in 1914.

Thank goodness for evil's self-defeating nature.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Russia was on our side they became our enemy during Cuban Missile Crisis threat of nukes and Assassination of Kennedy KGB trained Oswald

[OSR stands with Israel]

Probably when it invaded the USSR. I'm not gonna do the meme and say it's impossible to invade Russia, but trying to invade Russia while pursuing a grinding war with a US-armed Britain (and the increasing likelihood that the US was going to intervene eventually, was always going to be a recipe for disaster. Hitler's best bet was always going to be to wait out the UK until they broke and negotiated a separate peace. Then if he really wanted to stick it to Stalin he should probably have waited at least a few years to consolidate his hold over continental Europe and rebuild his strength. Of course even then it would have been a tall order, but at least he wouldn't have forced himself into the situation that even the Kaiserreich was desperately trying to avoid in 1914.

Thank goodness for evil's self-defeating nature.

I mean invading the USSR though was the entire goal of the war to begin with , not defeating the UK . So I don’t get the what ifs behind what if the Nazis didn’t invade the USSR because in that case they would not be Nazis to begin with .

[Mr. Smith]

Launching Barbarossa at all.

But doing it earlier [this would've meant telling Italy to go suck eggs, but to be fair, Italy should've just pulled a Spain and stayed neutral] and getting Japan in on it might have made it a bit less certain.

I guess you could say the real answer is, Japan and The Soviets sign the non-aggression pact.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Stalingrad

[President Johnson]

Stalingrad

Yeah, I agree. At this point it became evident that the war was about to be lost.

Of course, Hitler lived in total denial, costing millions of lives.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Victory was always extremely unlikely, one could say as early as the beginning of the war itself, or at least after Britain refused to make peace in 1940 - again somewhat inevitable. But it was really certain after Stalingrad. I think there was maybe sorta some outside chance of a very bad failed harvest collapsing the Soviet war effort in 1942, which could perhaps allow Germany to hang on against an Anglo-American invasion (although I still find this very doubtful). But after Stalingrad the odds went to zero.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Probably when it invaded the USSR. I'm not gonna do the meme and say it's impossible to invade Russia, but trying to invade Russia while pursuing a grinding war with a US-armed Britain (and the increasing likelihood that the US was going to intervene eventually, was always going to be a recipe for disaster. Hitler's best bet was always going to be to wait out the UK until they broke and negotiated a separate peace. Then if he really wanted to stick it to Stalin he should probably have waited at least a few years to consolidate his hold over continental Europe and rebuild his strength. Of course even then it would have been a tall order, but at least he wouldn't have forced himself into the situation that even the Kaiserreich was desperately trying to avoid in 1914.

Thank goodness for evil's self-defeating nature.

I mean invading the USSR though was the entire goal of the war to begin with , not defeating the UK . So I don’t get the what ifs behind what if the Nazis didn’t invade the USSR because in that case they would not be Nazis to begin with .

good thing I said this then

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

When Romania fell to the Soviets, resulting in Germany losing access to its petroleum.

[NYDem]

When Romania fell to the Soviets, resulting in Germany losing access to its petroleum.

German failure was certain well before August 1944.

[PSOL]

Stalingrad produced irreplaceable losses, but the root cause of that were offenses slowing down sometime during 1942.

[Orser67]

While Stalingrad (and to a lesser extent, the concurrent Guadalcanal campaign) was a huge turning point, I think the Axis powers may have still had a chance of victory until later in 1943. During that year, the Allies more or less achieved victory in the Mediterranean theater, the Soviets won a major victory at the Battle of Kursk, and Churchill and FDR committed to invade France at the Tehran Conference.

But I think people sometimes ignore the possibility of some kind of negotiated outcome, which is what Germany was shooting for towards the end of the war. I think the Battle of the Bulge was the last chance the Germans had of anything short of unconditional surrender, though I could also see an argument for mid-1944 (Operation Bagration+D-Day).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Another point where German failure arguably became certain in WW2 was when the US began the Manhattan project because even if the war turned into a stalemate from 42-44, the US probably would just nuke Berlin and Munich in 1945.

[Badger]

I would say as soon as America declared war. Once the Allies had our natural resources and massive industrial production behind them, it was only a matter of time.

[Meclazine for Israel]

When the US Industrial machine started producing the Bombers and Mustangs in such large quantities, they had the necessary advantage to turn the war.

The German Albert Speer, Architect, Nazi Party member, family man, gave his assessment on this exact question.

On his LinkedIn profile, it says Albert was Reich Minister of Armaments and War Production (Feb 1942 - April 1945).

Albert is quoted as saying:

"(With the Americans) flying provocatively low, the bombers of the American Fifteenth Air Force crossed the Alps from their Italian bases to attack German industrial targets."

That was the moment he said was when he knew the Germans had lost the war.

[NewYorkExpress]

December 7, 1941

Japan bombing Pearl Harbor also proved to be the Death sentence for Nazi Germany as well.

Hitler had no reason to support Japan in their war against the United States, and got nothing out of it, not even a deal with Japan for an invasion of Siberia, which would have helped him.

Before the U.S entered the war, the Soviets probably could have pushed Germany out of their territory, but actually making it to Berlin would have been difficult, if not impossible, even with all the Lend-Lease equipment.

With the U.S in the war, a two front (North Africa/Italy) and eventually three-front (France/Western Europe) became plausible, and that sealed Hitler's fate.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

When Steiner failed to attack

[Cassius]

There are probably three key junctures here:

June-December 1940: The success of the Dunkirk evacuation and the failure of the Battle of Britain (thus making it certain that Britain would continue to fight)  meant that Hitler lost his best opportunity to reorder the European state system along the lines that he wished.

June-December 1941: The failure of Barbarossa and the entry of the Americans into the war made it very unlikely that the Germans would ‘win’ the war.

October 1942-July 1943: The disaster in Stalingrad, the loss of the war in North Africa and subsequent invasion of Italy helped lock in not simply a German defeat, but the catastrophe of 1945.

[Constitutional Democrats for Trump]

9/1/1939

[Fuzzy Bear]

The failure at Barbarossa. Germany could have still won if they had made it to Moscow.

[RINO Tom]

9/1/1939

I don’t buy this at all, and I feel like it’s becoming an increasingly popular take.  Especially if you consider an armistice where Nazi Germany remains a sovereign state, German failure was not “inevitable” from day one.

[Senator-elect Spark]

December 7, 1941

Japan bombing Pearl Harbor also proved to be the Death sentence for Nazi Germany as well.

Hitler had no reason to support Japan in their war against the United States, and got nothing out of it, not even a deal with Japan for an invasion of Siberia, which would have helped him.

Before the U.S entered the war, the Soviets probably could have pushed Germany out of their territory, but actually making it to Berlin would have been difficult, if not impossible, even with all the Lend-Lease equipment.

With the U.S in the war, a two front (North Africa/Italy) and eventually three-front (France/Western Europe) became plausible, and that sealed Hitler's fate.

[PSOL]

9/1/1939

If we are going that far, might as well go to the Night of the Long Knives where Hitler purged all the competent officers, making the German military rely on aristocrats who were incompetent at their jobs.

[Lumine]

There are probably three key junctures here:

June-December 1940: The success of the Dunkirk evacuation and the failure of the Battle of Britain (thus making it certain that Britain would continue to fight)  meant that Hitler lost his best opportunity to reorder the European state system along the lines that he wished.

June-December 1941: The failure of Barbarossa and the entry of the Americans into the war made it very unlikely that the Germans would ‘win’ the war.

October 1942-July 1943: The disaster in Stalingrad, the loss of the war in North Africa and subsequent invasion of Italy helped lock in not simply a German defeat, but the catastrophe of 1945.

This, with the caveat that the last window should be June-September 42. By October it was clear Fall Blau and the attempt to seize Leningrad were not going to work (even if Operation Uranus was - somehow - contained), the Afrika Korps was in an unwinnable position at El Alamein with Operation Torch incoming, the window to seize Malta had gone, the Japanese being mauled at Midway lessened their ability to keep the US busy for longer, and so on.

For Barbarossa, the failure to seize Moscow is often cited as a key turning point... but it's not clear that the Germans could have taken it at any point. It was always logistically out of reach for an absurdly overstreched and mauled Army Group Center, and even if the Germans had made it there and the government evacuated... it could have easily degenerated into a bloody siege and an early Stalingrad at the first opportunity for a Soviet counteroffensive. And while losing Moscow would have seriously hampered the Soviet war effort, it's not by any means certain - probably the opposite - that Soviet morale would have finally cracked.

9/1/1939

If we are going that far, might as well go to the Night of the Long Knives where Hitler purged all the competent officers, making the German military rely on aristocrats who were incompetent at their jobs.

With respect, I don't see how that's accurate. The only generals killed there were - if memory serves right - Schleicher and Bredow, and both were political generals.

And while the competence of several Wehrmacht officers has been overrated due to legend (Rommel), covering up for their own blunders by blaming Hitler (Halder), and recent re-evaluation of their limited grasp of logistics and strategy (compared to an overreliance on tactics) it's not like they were a gang of incompetent aristocrats either.