America's Maverick Part 2: Madame President

[OSR stands with Israel]

House Battleground Projection:

Blitzer: 72 hours from now, not only will we be electing who will be our President for the next 4 years but also who will control congress for the next 2 years. So John how does the race to control the House look like

King: Well if we pull out our house battleground tracker we get this

Republicans: 214-232(-16-+2)
Democrats: 203-221(+16- -2)
Tossup: 18

King: As you can see while the Democrats do have a shot of taking back the house they do have a very uphill climb given Republican start out with 214 seats meaning they only need 4 more seats to take the House. So really if Democrats want to improve their chances they will probably will have to take some of these Lean Races and if you move the lean races into battleground this is how they look


Republicans: 207-243(-23 - +13)
Democrats: 192-228(-13 - +23)
Battleground: 36

King: So yes while that does improve the Democrats chances of taking the House, it also improves the Republicans chances of making gains so it does go both ways. So If I had to say how the race for the house is going at the moment, I would rate it as Lean Republican.

Blitzer: Thanks and If you want to see our ratings for individual house races please visit our website as on there we have listed out how each seat has been rated.

Battleground Senate Seats:

Blitzer: Now lets go to the Senate

King: Lets go over to the senate battleground and see how it looks

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Nebraska: Former Senator Bob Kerrey(D) vs State Senator Deb Fischer(R) - Likely Republican Gain

Michigan: Senator James Blanchard(D) vs Former State Attorney General Mike Cox(R) - Lean Democratic Hold

Montana: Governor Jon Tester(D) vs Representative Denny Rehberg(R) - Tossup

Ohio: Senator Sherrod Brown(D) vs Former Representative John Kasich(R) - Tossup

Tennessee: Senator Harold Ford Jr(D) vs Lieutenant Governor Ron Ramsey(R)- Tossup

Wisconsin: Representative Tammy Baldwin(D) vs Former Governor Tommy Thompson(R) - Tossup

Washington : Senator Jay Inslee(D) vs Governor Dino Rossi(R)- Tossup


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Maryland- Senator Michael Steele(R) vs State Attorney General Doug Gansler(D)- Likely Democratic Gain

Missouri- Senator Jim Talent(R) vs State Attorney General Jay Nixon(D)- Tossup

Nevada: Senator Dean Heller(R) vs Representative Shelley Barkley(D) - Tossup

Rhode Island: Senator Lincoln Chafee(R) vs Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts(D)- Tossup

Virginia: Lieutenant Governor Bill Bollings(R) vs Former Governor Tim Kaine(D)- Lean Republican Hold

King: So as you can see pretty much everyone believes the Republicans will pick up Nebraska and the Democrats will pick up Maryland which would give the Democrats 46 seats compared to the Republicans 44. Now most people also believe that the Republicans are strongly favored to hold Virginia while the Democrats to hold Michigan .

Blitzer: Are those seats winnable by the other side

King: Yes they are but at this point if you see Republicans win Michigan you likely will see them win every other tossup senate seat as well, increase their majority in the House and solidly take back the White House. The same is true for Democrats winning Virginia in reverse so I would say Republicans winning in Michigan or Democrats winning Virginia will mean a wave for each party.

Blitzer: Ok so assuming those races go to the party they are favored to how does Senate control look like.

King: You start out with Democrats having 47 Seats and Republicans having 45 Seats with 8 seats still in play and as you can see 5 of those seats are seats Democrats currently hold and 3 of the seats are currently held by Republicans. This means all Democrats have to do is hold 4 of the 5 seats they currently hold and they take back the senate even if they lose another senate seat and dont pick up any other GOP one. So their path is pretty straight forward which is not true for the Republicans as even if they hold all their seats they have to pick up 3 of the 5 seats held by Democrats to take back the senate and 2 of 5 even if they win the Presidency . Keep in mind though if Democrats hold the presidency they only need to hold 3 of the 5 seats the currently hold

Blitzer: So what are the 3 most likely seats Republicans for the Republicans to take from those 5

King: Well, many people believe at the moment Mr. Ramsey is favored so that is 1 and I would say Ohio and Montana look better for them than Washington or Wisconsin so I would go with those 3. I would like to say though even if they get those 3, that does not mean the Democrats hopes are done as Democrats can counter by taking Rhode Island or Missouri which would make the balance of the senate 50/50 meaning if the President gets reelected so would the Democratic Senate Majority. Of course if they won both, they would be at 51 and Republicans then would have to take Wisconsin and Washington as well to get back to 51.

Blitzer: These races will be interesting indeed, now lets look at some key governor races

Battleground Gubernatorial Races:

King: There are 6 battleground races up this time and here they are

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Missouri: Governor Bekki Cook(D) vs Businessman John Brunner(R)- Lean Democratic Hold

Montana- State Attorney General Steve Bullock(D) vs Former State Senator Corey Stapleton(R) - Tossup

North Carolina: Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton(D) vs Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory(R)- Lean Republican Gain


Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Indiana: Representative Mike Pence(R) vs Former Indiana Speaker John Gregg(D) - Tossup

Vermont: Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie(R) vs State Senator Peter Shumlin(D) - Tossup

Washington: State Attorney General Rob McKenna(R) vs State Senator Majority Leader Lisa Brown(D) - Tossup

King: So as you can see there is gonna be truly a lot at stake on Tuesday and all I can say at this point is to go out and vote given not only will the Presidency, Congress, many gubernatorial races be at stake but many local races and important ballot initiatives  as well.

Blitzer: Yup and some initiatives we will be watching are over gay marriage and recreational marijuana legalization. Here the state's that have each of those referendums up :

Gay Marriage: Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, Washington

Marijuana Legalization: Colorado, Oregon, Washington

Blitzer: So as John said , there is a lot at stake on Tuesday so we encourage everyone to vote.

[2016]

Election Night 2012
President Hillary Clinton vs Senator Bobby Jindal

My Predictions
Popular Vote: Clinton 52 / Jindal 47 / Others 1
Electoral College: Clinton 337 / Jindal 201

Senator Jindal takes Missouri & Arkansas
President Clinton takes Nevada (by winning Washoe & Clark Counties), Colorado (by winning Jefferson, Adams, Araphaoe Counties), Florida (South FL Hispanics/Puerto Ricans + she will do better in the Tampa/St. Pete Areas compared to 4 years ago), Virginia (NoVa Suburbs like Prince William, Loudoun, Fairfax will provide a boost for Hillary + she will run more even in the Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, Norfolk Area), West Virginia (which will be the closest State in the Presidential Race) and Ohio.

Republicans narrowly hold the House.

Senate
Nebraska: Deb Fischer Wins
Michigan: Senator James Blanchard Wins
Montana: Governor Jon Tester Wins
Ohio: Former Rep. John Kasich Wins. I think this will be a split Decision with Hillary taking Ohios' 18 EC Votes and Kasich will get elected to the Senate because Ohioans will view Sherrod Brown as too liberal
Tennessee: Lt. Governor Ramsey Wins
Wisconsin: Representative Tammy Baldwin Wins
Washington: Senator Jay Inslee narrowly gets re-elected

Maryland: State Attorney General Doug Gansler Wins
Missouri: Split Decision here. State Attorney General Jay Nixon has enough crossover & moderate credentials in the Rual Areas to knock off Senator Jim Talent while Senator Bobby Jindal takes Missouris' 10 EC Votes
Nevada: Split Decision here as well: Hillary takes Nevadas' 6 EC Votes and Senator Dean Heller by virtue of winning Washoe County narrowly gets re-elected.
Rhode Island: Lt. Governor Elizabeth Roberts Wins. Senator Chaffee despite being a Moderate is basically facing the same dilemma Senator Scott Brown faced in the OTL when he had to run against Elizabeth Warren in a Presidential Year. Very problematic for him when Hillary wins the State with over 60 % of the Vote.

Virginia: This is the Race I mostly disagree on and could be a potential big Upset despite it being rated as Lean R. I'd say Kaine wins by less than 20,000 Votes.

Here are all the Senate Seats up for Re-Election in 2012:

Governors
Missouri: Bekki Cook Wins
Montana: Steve Bullock Wins
North Carolina: Pat McCrory Wins
Indiana: Mike Pence Wins
Vermont: Peter Shumlin Wins
Washington State: Rob McKenna Wins; Republicans will finally win the Governors Mansion there as McKenna successfully distanced himself from Republicans in Congress and the top of the Ticket.

Going to be an interesting Night no doubt about it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2012 Election Night Preview:

Blitzer: With 24 Hours left till the election lets go over to John King and the Magic Wall to see where we stand.

King: Really the Battleground Map has not changed much since the debate other than the fact that we were able to move Oregon from Lean Clinton to Safe Clinton after the Senator Jindal camp pulled out of that state in the final couple weeks. This as you can see gives the President a pretty big advantage going into election night



Clinton/Rockefeller 257 51%
Jindal/Romney 185 46%

Blitzer: What can Senator Jindal do if he wants a chance to pull out the upset

King: Well first he must and I mean must win Florida , Ohio and Virginia as each one of those states alone would be enough to put the President over the top. So those 3 are mathematically must win states for Senator Jindal and if we see any of one those 3 states go to President Clinton election night than we will pretty much know its all over. Next Senator Jindal must win Colorado as while that is not mathematically needed, the fact is if a combination of Colorado and Nevada have 15 electoral votes which is enough to put the President over the top so he will need the more Republican of the two states which is Colorado.

So if he wins the 4 must win states of Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado we are in an interesting position as that would give the President Clinton 257 votes and Senator Jindal 254 leaving Nevada , Missouri, Arkansas and West Virginia as states that are still undecided. From this point there are two ways either candidate can win , one by winning every state other than Missouri or winning Missouri plus one other state.

Blitzer : Is it possible to get to yet another 269-269 tie

King : Yea it is , as say you give President Clinton Nevada and Arkansas and then give Senator Jindal Missouri and West Virginia then the result as you can see would be 269-269. I would like to point out though that thanks to the electoral reform amendment, this time rather than each house delegation having one vote for president , each representative will have one vote for president and it is almost impossible to see the democrats taking the House if they aren’t well above the 270 EV line . So if it’s 269-269 , it’s almost certain that Senator Jindal would be the next president.

Blitzer: Thanks John, and For fun lets now go over to our panel for their final predictions.

Carville: I think the President gets solidly reelected as I think she will end up winning every swing state on this map with the exception of Virginia and Arkansas which would give her 334 Electoral votes compared to the Senator Jindal at 204

Begala: My prediction is similar to James but I also think the President actually carries Virginia which would give her 347 electoral votes compared to Senator Jindal at 191

Martin: My prediction is a little more conservative than my Democratic friends on the panel as I have President Clinton carrying Ohio , West Virginia, Missouri , Colorado and Nevada while Senator Jindal carries Virginia and Arkansas. This would give President Clinton 305 electoral votes and Senator Jindal 233 Electoral Votes

Cupp: Unfortunately I do not think Senator Jindal wins but I do have it close as I have Senator Jindal winning Florida Arkansas Virginia Colorado and Nevada but loses Ohio and West Virginia which would give the President 280 Electoral votes and Senator Jindal 258

Buchanan: My prediction is similar but I think demographic changes in Nevada and Colorado will cause those states to also vote Democratic which gives the President 295 Electoral Votes while Senator Jindal gets 243.

Gingrich: I will go out of a limb and say not only will Senator Jindal win the election and not only will he win every swing state on the board but also carry the states of New Hampshire and Iowa which would give him 291 Electoral Votes compared to President Clinton who will finish at 247.

Blitzer: Ok we will check back to see which one of you had the closest prediction but for our viewers at home, I hope you join us tomorrow night on CNN for full coverage of the 2012 Election

[2016]

Hillary now at 51 % to 46 %. This was probably the Final CNN/ORC Poll before the Election.

Yup, I think she has this given the early Vote that has already being counted but not yet announced. Remember: Florida counts pretty quick and so does Virginia & Ohio. In Colorado maybe 70 % of the Vote is presumably in as well, Nevada the same.

Jindal needs some overwhelming support from Late Deciders to pull off the Election and I don't see it.

Can't wait for the first Exit Polls tomorrow!

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Exit Polls)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: The polls are about to close in the first states tonight and we will soon be getting an indication of whether or not the first female President in our history will be getting another first years or whether or not we will get our first President of South Asian descent . Its gonna be a really exciting night but to get our first indications of how this night will go , lets go to John King to see our exit polls.

King: Well I want to start out by noting that exit polls while different from other polls given exit polls are based on polls of people after they have voted rather than before , they still have a margin of error so all they give us is an indication of how the night will go but we will still need to wait for the actual results to come out. So here are some of our exit polls

Race:

White: 73%; Jindal 56% Clinton 43%
African American: 12%; Clinton 90% Jindal 9%
Hispanic 10%; Clinton 65% Jindal 34%
Asian 3; Clinton 63% Jindal 36%
Other 2%; Clinton 60% Jindal 39%

Gender:

Male: 48%; Jindal 50% Clinton 49%
Female: 52% : Clinton 54% Jindal 45%

Age:

18-29: 17%; Clinton 54% Jindal 45%
30-44: 28%; Clinton 53% Jindal 46%
45-64: 38%; Clinton 51% Jindal 48%
65+: 17%; Jindal 50% Clinton 49%

Income:

0-30k: 18%; Clinton 59% Jindal 40%
30k-75k: 42%; Clinton 53% Jindal 46%
75k-150k: 28%; Jindal 51% Clinton 48%
150k+: 12%; Jindal 54% Clinton 45%

King: So really some things our exit poll is telling us is that African American Turnout is up which is certainly news for President Clinton in key battlegrounds like Ohio and Missouri given how Democrats are reliant of running up the Margins in places like Cleveland, Kansas City and St Louis in winning those key midwestern states. Also another interesting thing to point out is the fact that Senator Jindal is leading with seniors which is a change from 4 years ago which is good for him in a place like Florida but of course on the flip side, the drop of Hispanic support from 39% to 34% is not good for him in a state like Florida either.

Blitzer: Thanks John, so David what do you think

Gergen: Well I think the main fact is these exit polls are in line with what the pre election polls have been saying so far . Now I want to remind everyone that these are just exit polls and elections are not decided based on that so if you have not voted yet, please go ahead and do so.

[2016]

Senator Jindal leading the Male Vote by 1 (50-49) while President Clinton leading the Female Vote by 9 (54-45) in these earlish Exit Polls is probably everything you need to know.

It does Point to a 51-46 or 52-47 National lead for Clinton.

Given that in every Battleground State Women are likely voting more than Men this is Hillarys Race to lose I think.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Part 1)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

7:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: The first 6 states have just closed their polls and CNN can now project that President Clinton will win the reliably Democratic State of Vermont while Senator Jindal will win the reliably Republican States of Indiana and South Carolina. We are currently though unable to make a projection in the state of Kentucky, Virginia or Georgia



Blitzer: So far in Kentucky, Senator Jindal leads the President 51.5% to 47.5% with around 2/3rd of the vote so lets go over to John King to see how the state of Kentucky is going so far.

King: Many Democrats at home may be looking at the state of Kentucky so far and saying wow its much closer than expected but I want to point out that its misleading because at the moment none of Western Kentucky is in because while the polls have closed on the Eastern half of the state for just over and hour, they just closed in the Western Half. As you can see Western Kentucky is more Republican than Eastern Kentucky so its very likely that once these voters come in that Senator Jindal starts expanding his lead more to what was expected.

Blitzer: As you may know many Democrats believe that Virginia , a state that has not gone Democratic since all the way back in 1964, may fall into their column tonight. What will the President have to do to make those dreams a reality

King: Well the first thing to keep in mind is Virginia is changing and no more profoundly than in Northern Virginia which is the fastest growing part of the state and Democrats are hoping to capitalize on that fact. We have seen the shift in Northern Virginia all throughout the past decade as if we go back in time we can see that Northern Virginia was Republican for the longest time, then in 2004 the Democrats were able to take Fairfax County, in 2008 take Prince William County so the question is will they add Loudon County to that list as well. Another key thing for the President in the state is to reduce the Republican Margins in the GOP suburbs around Richmond and in particular Chesterfield County. It is a place where Republicans have gotten over 60% of the vote in every election going back to 1972 other than 1992 which was a three way race thanks to Ross Perot, so if the President is to take Virginia then she must keep Senator Jindal under 60% in counties such as that.

If she can do both then the state will truly be 50/50 and we will likely have to wait all night before seeing the winner.

Blitzer: Now lets go back to Anderson Cooper and hear what our panelists have to think

Cooper: So James what do you think of the exit polls and some of the early results so far

Carville: I would say I am pretty optimistic as the exit polls are in line with pre election polls and I would say I like what I see from Kentucky so far. The fact that the state was not able to be called at poll closing time tells me that Senator Jindal has not been able to to get the swings he was hoping for in Appalachia which may be critical in places like West Virginia, South Western Virginia, and South Eastern Ohio all of which Senator Jindal is hoping for strong performances tonight

Buchanan: I would like to point out that Kentucky was less contested this time by the Democrats than it was back in 2008 which means you would likely see larger trends to the Republicans than you would see otherwise. So I would not even be certain that we can extrapolate whats happening in the rest of Appalachia because Ohio, Virginia and West Virginia were all heavily contested unlike Kentucky.

Also I’d like to point out that the President doenst need any of those states as given her 30 point advantage with Hispanics , you have to say she’s the favorite in Colorado and Nevada and if you add those electoral votes to the 257 that already lean or are solidly in her camp then she ends up with 272 electoral votes . So unless Governor Romney can deliver Senator Jindal an upset in New Hampshire, I would say the Clinton camp is very happy at these numbers.

Borger: I would like to say though Republicans would argue that these exit polls have a margin of error so if Senator Jindal gets 37% of the Hispanic vote rather than 34% then he probably would be favored in at least Colorado so I would say we should wait before really jumping to any conclusions.

Cooper: Dana any updates on the Senate so far

Bash: At this moment we are classifying Virginia as too early to call but based on the exit polls done for that race and insider comments in both the Republican and Democratic camps , the senate race in Virginia seems more like the Presidential race there 4 years ago rather than the one tonight. To make following these races easier, we will color in a race yellow on the key battleground list if the polls have closed but we are unable to make a call in that race just like we do on a map

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia


7:30

Blitzer: The polls have just closed in Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina and CNN is unable to make a projection in any one of those states at the moment. On the other hand we are able to project that Senator Jindal will carry the state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes as expected.



Blitzer: Now lets go over to John King and the Magic Wall to see how things are going in the battlegrounds. John lets go to Florida first

King: Keep in mind 4 years ago , Senator Bush won Florida by 4.4 points so really what we will be looking at is not only how the counties have changed since 2008 but if they have changed by that amount. One county the President is hoping to make gains in is Miami-Dade which is the biggest county in the state and also very Hispanic so the hope is the gains the President is making among Hispanics nationwide can be replicated here. Right now she is ahead by 13 or so points which is up 6 points from 4 years ago so that is good for her on the flip side some of these rural counties you can see Senator Jindal is actually overperforming what then Senator Bush did so that is good news for him.

So it is very likely I would say given these early results we will be waiting quite a while before we know who has won this state as its likely to be within a point either way.

Blitzer: What about in Virginia

King: As you can see Senator Jindal is ahead but so far not much in Northern Virginia has come in yet. From what little that has come in we can see so far the President is leading by around 18 points in Fairfax County which is up 7 points from 4 years ago but again you can see that Senator Jindal has flipped Tazewell County a county in the south western part of the state which is good news for him too. The question really is can he withstand the late surge democrats get in the state of Virginia as democrats usually get on there. One test I think we can use is to see how he is doing compared to Lieutenant Governor Bill Bollings and if we flip over to the senate side we can see not only does Mr. Bollings have a bigger lead, but he only trails Former Governor Kaine in Fairfax County by 11.5 points which is more similar to the margin of the presidential election 4 years ago than it is tonight.

Blitzer: Dana any update on the senate races

Bash: Currently CNN Is at the moment unable to make a projection in Ohio which is a critical senate race when it comes to deciding control of the chamber. Wolf, back to you

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia


Blitzer: Lets now see what our panel has to say so far about the results so far

Cooper: So Alex looking at the results in Florida so far what do you think

Castellanos: I would say the Miami-Dade number so far does not look good for Senator Jindal but on the other hand he is overperforming in many rural areas that do make up the state so things do not look really bad for him. So in my mind this race in Florida will come down to the I-4 corridor and in particular Hillsborough County which is a good bellwether in the state and I think whomever wins that county should be favored in Florida.

Cooper: Do you think Florida will be within a point

Castellanos: Yes I do

7:51:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Kentucky and its 8 electoral votes will be won by Senator Jindal.



Jindal 44
Clinton 3

Cooper: Early on this was a state that the President thought she could win but it was clear that it would be a very uphill battle so President Clinton and the Democrats didnt contest it as much as they did back in 2008.

Roland: Doing so was a good decision in my mind Anderson as keep in mind Bill Clinton in 1996 barely carried the state of Kentucky and likely only did cause of Ross Perot so it was never realistic and without a senate race in play like in 2008, I don't think this call is any surprise.

Begala: Yes I have to say what really is big though is the fact that we are seeing the fact that Florida a state Senator Bush won by 4.4 points 4 years ago and Virginia a state that he won by 5.6 points 4 years ago and is a state no Democrat has won since 1964 , are both very close is a very good sign for the President.

Cooper: We will be taking a quick break but will be back for the biggest round of poll closings at the top of the hour.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Part 2)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

8:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: It is 8 PM in the east where we will have our biggest batch of poll closings for the night and CNN can now project that President Clinton will win the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, 3 of the 4 electoral votes in Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Rhode Island. We can also project that Senator Jindal will win the states of - Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

At this time though we are unable to make a projection in Florida , Missouri , New Hampshire and Pennsylvania



Clinton 78
Jindal 77

Blitzer: President Clinton has just gone into the lead into the electoral vote count , and now lets send it to Dana for updates for Senate and House races

Bash: Thanks Wolf. Polls have closed in many of these key senate races and CNN Can now project that in Maryland- The Democrat Doug Gansler will defeat Republican Senator Michael Steele to be the next Senator of that State. We though are unable to make projections in Missouri, Rhode Island or Tennessee


Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia


Bash: For the House it is currently very early in the evening but we currently believe that at the end of the night the Republicans will hold anywhere between 213 and 230 house seats while the Democrats will hold anywhere between 205 and 222 house seats.

Cooper: Those house projections are very close to what the polls have been saying so is that bad news for the Jindal campaign

Cupp: It clearly is not a good sign but I would like to point out that most of the projections at this stage still come from exit polls given not many results from house races have actually come in yet and the upper end of the prediction of the projection would clearly imply that Senator Jindal has probably pulled out the upset. So his hopes are again what many have said they always were, which is the margin of error favors him and then he is able to pull out a win in the electoral college.

Carville: I would like to point out that we do have clues on how the night is gonna go from actual results too. Tazewell County a county in South Western Virginia usually votes 4 to 5 points more Republican than neighboring West Virginia and given Senator Jindal seems to have only won that county by around 3 points, it looks like the President should be favored in West Virginia.

Gingrich: I think thats just a ludicrous comparison James, as how can you compare a small county to an entire state. The fact is yes we are seeing swing to the Democrats in Northern Virginia and in South Florida but we are also seeing swings towards the Republicans in Appalachia as we saw in Eastern Kentucky and the fact that counties in South Western Virginia are flipping from Democrat to Republican so I think right now the results show that its gonna be a long night

Borger: The fact is I think as political analysts we try to read sometimes way too much into these individual results of counties to then judge how other states will go. Keep in mind that campaigns now days microtarget far more than they used to so the type of message you saw from the candidates in Virginia wont be the same as you see in West Virginia so its very possible you can see Senator Jindal perform better or worse with White Working Class whites in West Virginia than he has in Virginia so far.

Cooper: Back you Wolf


8:30

Blitzer: The polls have just closed in Arkansas and currently we are unable to make a projection in that state but we are able to project that Senator Jindal will carry the state of North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes.



Jindal 92
Clinton 78

Blitzer: Lets now go over to John King and the Magic Wall. John currently the President leads in Ohio so far but not much is in so how do things currently look

King: For a Democrat to win they usually must perform very well in the North Eastern part of the state and run up the numbers in cities like Cleveland, Toledo, Akron, Youngstown and now in Columbus . Currently we have votes coming in from Mahoning County and as you can see the President is leading there by a whopping 28 points which is more than she won the county by 4 years ago as well. Now the question is whether or not Senator Jindal is running it up in the more rural areas and if you look at Morrow County here is an issue for him as it is a county that Senator Bush won by 26 points 4 years ago and tonight he is only leading it by 24.

Blitzer: Not much difference

King: It is not much difference but pretty much everyone expects the cities to vote more democratic than they did 4 years ago so for Senator Jindal to hold on here must at the very least match if not exceed Senator Bush's performance there and the early signs is he is not doing so.

Blitzer: What about in Florida where we are just over 60% in and currently President Clinton leads by a point

King: Yes she does but I do want to bump the breaks in the celebration in the Clinton camp as keep in mind much of the panhandle has still not come in yet and there are more than enough votes in those areas to not only wipe out that lead but give Senator Jindal the lead as well but there are also lots of votes as you can see left to count in South Florida as well so I would say really say this state is truly too close to count but we should know around 10 who the favorite is here.

Blitzer: Ok Anderson, back to you

Cooper: So Ana what do you think of the results so far in Florida

Navarro: I have to say things look good for Senator Jindal as keep in mind Republicans usually do around a couple points better from this point of the count onwards and given the President is only up 1 in Florida right now, I think that Senator Jindal will end up carrying my home state and its 29 electoral votes.

Gergen: Yes I would also agree that things do look promising for Senator Jindal in Florida but they do not look promising at all in Ohio as so far Senator Jindal is underperforming Senator Bush in both the cities and rural areas that have reported so far and Senator Bush didnt even with Ohio by much so it does not look promising at all.

Buchanan: I would like to point out that places like Youngstown, and Toledo are not places  that Republicans should be losing by anywhere near as much as they do. There are many cultural conservatives there who keep in mind voted for Ronald Reagan twice and George HW Bush in 1988 but the fact is since then the Republicans have sold them out by outsourcing their jobs so they have gone back home to the Democratic party.

O'Brien: I have to say that if you include the fact Black Turnout is up then it is very likely that President Clinton does better than she did 4 years ago in Cleveland as well in which case things do look pretty promising for her in Ohio at the moment

Cooper: Thanks , we now will be taking a quick break and will be back soon


8:51:

Blitzer: Lets go over to Dana for an update for the Senate Races

Bash: CNN at this time is able to project that Lieutenant Governor Bill Bollings will be the next Senator from Virginia as he will defeat former Governor Tim Kaine .

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Bash : Currently in Ohio , Senator Brown is leading but keep in mind the more democratic areas have come in at the moment and that he currently is underperforming President Clinton which could be huge . In Missouri, not much has come in but the Democrat Jay Nixon is ahead albeit again the more democratic areas have reported in but in this case he is actually overperfoming President Clinton and in Rhode Island the Democrat Elizabeth Roberts is ahead but it’s very early so far . In Tennessee you see the flip side of Ohio where the more Republican areas are in and you see the Republican Ron Ramsey ahead .

Wolf back to you

Blitzer : Thank Dana , let’s now go over to John King and the magic wall to see how the road to a senate majority has changed

King : Democrats started the night with 45 senate seats once you add in all the safe holds and Republicans with 43 and now it’s gone to Democrats at 46 and republicans at 44. Now let’s say for the sake of this argument republicans win Nebraska like everyone expects and democrats win Michigan like they are favored too , then you get to Democrats at 47 , republicans at 45 . Now the problem for the republicans is this and that is if you give the democrats Rhode Island where they are ahead and Missouri where they are ahead and over performing President Clinton then the Democrats get to 49 meaning republicans have to run the table to win a majority. That means they must win two close but tough races in Wisconsin and Washington state in order to get the majority, and win one of them in order to even get to a 50-50 tie .

So at this moment you could definitely say taking the senate will be an uphill battle for the republicans

Blitzer : We will take a break and be back at the top of the order for more poll closings

[2016]

So Senator Jindal seems to have a better Night thus far then anticipated. That being said OHIO is the ballgame and it looks like I might be right with a split Decision there with Clinton taking the 18 EC Votes while former Representative John Kasich could be elected to the Senate.

And if I were the Clinton Campaign I wouldn't write of FLORIDA either. Yes, there will be more Vote coming in from the Panhandle but there will also be more vote coming in from the Southeastern portion of the State. It's a combination of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties that could erase any deficit Senator Jindal gets out of the Panhandle. And if Clinton does lead in Pinellas (St. Pete) and Hillsborough (Tampa) I just don't see her losing the State. It will be very close, less than 100K either way.

Hillary also seems to perform well enough in Appalachia which keeps West Virginia and Virginia as Toss Ups.

Jindal needs a Trifecta of FL, OH, VA + CO to have a chance at the Presidency.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Part 3)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

9:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: Its 9 in the east and CNN can now project that President Clinton will carry the states of New York and Michigan along with the outstanding electoral vote in Maine while Senator Jindal will carry the states of Arizona, Wyoming , North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Louisiana and Texas

We currently our unable to make projections in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico



Jindal 169
Clinton 124

Blitzer: Now lets go to Dana for an update on the senate races

Bash: Yes Wolf, we can now project that in Nebraska- the Republican Deb Fischer will defeat former Senator Bob Kerrey to be the next senator of that state. We are though unable to make projects in Michigan and Wisconsin at the moment

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Cooper: Thank Dana and now lets go over to our panel to discuss the most recent results. So Paul what is your reaction to President Clinton being called the winner in Michigan

Begala: It is big news and by that I don't mean the fact that the President won Michigan but won Michigan at poll closing and while yes I understand that large parts of the state closed an hour ago it is still the earliest Michigan has been called since 1996. So that very likely means that President Clinton is performing strongly in the rust belt overall which would be very good for her hopes of winning a 2nd term.

Cupp : While it isn’t good news , I don’t think it’s as big as you are making it out to seem . The past 3 elections convinced the Jindal campaign that Michigan is what you can call fools gold for republicans and thus he didn’t contest it anywhere near as much as John McCain or George W Bush did . So it makes sense that the democratic margins in Michigan would be larger than they otherwise would have been if he did but at the end of the day the margin of victory in a state makes no difference when it comes to the electoral college .

Martin: I think it goes to show you that again that African American turnout is up which in turn put Michigan out of reach for the GOP and really could complicate their attemps of winning key states like Ohio and Missouri if Democrats are able to run up the margins in Cleveland , St Louis and Kansas City. The Detroit Numbers in so far show me that its very realistic that it happens at this point.

9:26:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that President Clinton will carry the states of Minnesota and New Hampshire



Jindal 169
Clinton 138

Blitzer: Lets now go over to John King at the magic wall to see how the race is shaping up in the battlegrounds so far. First Lets go to Ohio which is such a major battleground state

King: Well at the moment President Clinton does have a pretty healthy lead in Ohio but again thats due to more Democratic areas being in at the moment. So the question really is how the candidates are doing compared to their bench marks and I can say one major red flag for the Jindal campaign right now is Hamilton County. Its a county thats long been a core Republican stronghold going back decades as since WW2 its gone Republican in every election but 1964 and so far tonight as well which is not good news at all for a Republican. Another piece of bad news so far for the Jindal campaign is Lake County a key bellwether county neighboring Cleveland is so far going to President Clinton as well while 4 years ago it was a county that Senator Bush won by 2 points.

Blitzer: How does the senate there look like in both counties

King: So far John Kasich the Republican is winning both Hamilton and Lake and is still overperforming Senator Jindal statewide

Blitzer: What about in Virginia

King: One key county all of us have been looking at all campaign season is Loudon County, a key suburban to exurban Northern Virginian County and while Senator Jindal currently has a very narrow lead there is a lot left to count there and its very possible that county could flip Democratic if the more remaining vote out in the county is from Democratic Areas. Another county to look at is from the Richmond area which is Henrico County and as you can see currently the President has a very narrow lead there which is a change from 4 years ago as Senator Bush won this county by 7.5 points. So I would say so far it looks like Virginia will be a nailbiter and yes while Senator Jindal is ahead by a healthy margin right now, that number likely will drop significantly as the more Democratic areas come in and the race here truly will be anyone's ballgame

Blitzer: What about Florida

King: As you can see in Florida, Senator Jindal has taken the lead with the panhandle in and while there is still vote out in South Florida there isnt that much out . So really this race comes down to the I4 corridor and right now in Hillsborough County Senator Jindal leads but its been going back and forth all night , in Pinellas County President Clinton leads but again very narrowly. So the fact is Florida is gonna be close even though things are starting to look optimistic here for Senator Jindal.

Blitzer: Thanks John and stand by as we have yet another projection to make and that is we can project President Clinton will carry the state of Pennsylvania and its very crucial 20 electoral votes.




Jindal 169
Clinton 158

Blitzer: That win puts the President just 11 electoral votes short of Senator Jindal and keep in mind California still has yet to close its polls. Now lets go to Anderson and see what our panel thinks

Cooper: Thanks Wolf, Newt looking at these election results are you still optimistic that Senator Jindal can win

Gingrich: Anderson, I will admit things arent going as good as I thought they would but I would like to point out that there is still much of the vote left to count in Ohio so its still in my opinion to early to say he is a major underdog there so if he wins it along with Florida , and Virginia where I think hes favored and Arkansas where I think he is heavily favored then he gets to 251 electoral votes. So from that point give him Missouri and Colorado and he wins the presidency so I think its still way to early to say that hes out of it yet

Carville: Sure but I would have to say that Ohio does not seem anyone's game as the President at this stage is definitely favored there and if she wins that its ball game and that isnt including the other battleground states too so I have to say the President is a clear favorite at this stage.

Blitzer: Before we go to break , lets get an update on the House so far and get an important projection for the Senate

Bash: Yes Wolf, So far CNN believes the Republicans will end up anywhere between 215 and 228 house seats while the Democrats will end up with anywhere 210 and 223 house seats. CNN Can also project in the Michigan Senate Race, Senator James Blanchard will be reelected .

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Blitzers : Thank Dana, and we shall be back after this quick moment

9:51

Blitzer: Now lets get an update on some of the key governor's races up tonight

Bash: So far CNN has been able to project the Democrat Bekki Cook has won a full term as governor in Missouri and in North Carolina the Republican Pat McCrory has won.  We are unable to make a projection currently in Indiana but right now the Republican Mike Pence holds a narrow lead nor are we able to make a projection in Vermont but again the Democrat Peter Shumlin holds the narrow lead.

Blitzer: stand by as we are right now able to project that President Clinton will win the state of  New Mexico and it’s 5 electoral votes .



Jindal 169
Clinton 163

Blitzer: The President is now only 6 electoral votes behind Senator Jindal going into the 10 PM poll closing and we will now be taking a short break and will come back for those poll closings

[2016]

Here is the State of Play heading into the 10pm ET Poll Closings:

If Clinton takes, as expected, the Pacific Coast States of Hawaii (4), California (55), Oregon (7), and Washington State (12) later tonight she is 241. Assuming she wins Wisconsin (10) which CNN had leaning her way in their Final Electoral Map before the Election she gets to 251. If she then takes Ohio (18) where she is leading that gets her to 269. At that Point she only needs one more State to win while Jindal has to run the table to sent it into the House.

I think though Clinton wins either Nevada or Colorado since they have quite a different Hispanic Population compared to Florida + the Denver Suburbs and Clark & Washoe Counties are more favorable to her.

Interesting: If Senator Jindal does eek out a win in Hillsborough County, Florida it could be the first time the County does not vote with the Winner of the Presidential Election.

[Sir Mohamed]

At the OP's request:

MR. BARAK OBAMA olawakandi Atlas legend ★★★★★ Posts: 79,369

2012 election results megathread « Reply #1454 on: November 6, 2012, 09:13:24 » PA hasnt flipped, consequently R nut map isnt happening. Blks of Philly arent gonna vote Jindal just bcz hes Indian lol and blk females voted to reelect PREZ CLINTON Now blue avs already talking 2014 but Rs arent gonna win back senate anyways. They make same threafs all over again Rs already have lost election, Jindal is DONE

Suburbia bronz4141 Atlas icon ★★★★★ Posts: 18,220

2012 election results megathread « Reply #1455 on: November 6, 2012, 09:14:01 » Looking at the results from NJ and Long Island, it's evident that Clinton faced some backlash over her handling of law enforcement issues. The fact she denied crime was up in the area and mainly driven by black males is an indictment on the Democratic Party. I hope she changes course in a what looks likely 2nd term as she doesn't have to run again. We will see now NJ state elections in 2013 turns out downballot, but I'm predicting a major backlash if Clinton doesn't change course on law enforcement and crime policy. Lots of white suburban voters are fed up with it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Part 4)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

10:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: It's 10 In the East and CNN can now project that Senator Jindal will carry the rock ribbed Republican States of Montana and Utah while in Iowa and in Nevada we currently are unable to make a projection. On the other hand though we are able to project that President Clinton will carry the state of Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes



Jindal 178
Clinton 173

Blitzer: Now lets go to Dana for an update for the Senate Races

Bash: Wolf, the polls have closed in Nevada and Montana but at the moment we are unable to make a projection in either contest but we are able to project that in the Wisconsin Senate race the winner will be Representative Tammy Baldwin as she will defeat Former Governor Tommy Thompson to become the next senator of that state.

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Cooper: Thanks, Dana now lets go back over to our panel to see what they think of the recent calls in Wisconsin. So David what do you think

Gregen: I have to say it is big news because while everyone expected Wisconsin to go Democratic, people did expect it to be called later than it was. The fact that it was called just an hour after polls have closed tell me that President Clinton should be in good shape to keep the state of Ohio in her column and if she does she will almost certainly be reelected

Borger: I agree with David but I would like to add that Tommy Thompson's defeat will create some headscratchers for the Wisconsin GOP. The fact is over the past decade with the exception of 2010 and maybe 2004, the Wisconsin GOP has had a pretty bad 10 or so years in the state so while the tandem of Governor Scott Walker and Senator Paul Ryan seems strong, the fact is their record other than the year they were swept in has not been great.

O'Brien: I also have to add the fact that New Mexico a state that for so long was considered a key tossup state was called for the President so quickly signals support in the West as well


10:19:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Arkansas, a state that has not gone Republican since 1988, will be won by Senator Jindal tonight. A huge win for Senator Jindal and also a must win as well .



Jindal 184
Clinton 173


So far with around 65% of the vote in Colorado President Clinton leads Senator Jindal 51% to 48%, in Florida with over 90% of the vote in Senator Jindal still leads the President 50.2% to 49%, With 68% of the vote in Ohio President Clinton leads Senator Jindal 51.5% to 47.5% , in Missouri with 60% currently Senator Jindal only leads the President 51 to 48, in Virginia with 85% Senator Jindal is still holding on to his very tight 50.3% to 48.8% lead and in West Virginia the President Currently enjoys a 51-48 lead there. Let's go now to John King and the Magic Wall so John how is the Missouri Belweather doing so far

King: I would like to point out that so far the votes have reported from more Republican areas so the lead Senator Jindal has is overstated and really if you go county by county you can see so far the results are very similar to the results here 4 years ago and an example of this is Jefferson County a key suburban county which went to the President by 9 points 4 years ago is going to the President by 8.5 so far. A similar thing you can see in the suburbs of Kansas City where in Clay County where the President won it by 7 points points 4 years ago and is leading it by around 7 points right now so so far the President is holding her margins in the suburbs from 4 years ago.

I want to remind folks that close elections are fought in the suburbs because in the vast majority of states what you will see happen is that Democrats will run up the margins in Urban Areas while Republicans will do the same in rural areas so the question is then who will win the suburbs. 4 years ago in the state of Missouri it was then Senator Clinton and right now it seems like President Clinton is once again doing well in their suburbs .

Blitzer: Lets now go over to Colorado where the President leads given its a county she lost by more than 4 points back in 2008

King: Well the key so far is again the suburbs as yes while Democrats do put up large margins in Urban Areas and Republicans in Rural Areas, what decides elections are the suburbs. One of those key suburban counties is Jefferson County Colorado which 4 years ago went to Senator Bush by 7 points and is a county which since the end of World War two has only voted Democratic once is currently showing President Clinton running ahead of Senator Jindal. Again a similar story is true in Arapahoe County which again was a county that other than 1964 has voted Republican in every election in the post WW2 era and 4 years ago was a county that Senator Bush won by more than 5 points is now a county that the President is up by over 3 points in.

So going across this map you see a similar patten going on in most of these swing states, whether in Ohio, Missouri, and now even Colorado and Virginia and that is increased support for the President in the suburbs of those states has been huge for her chances of getting reelected.

Blitzer: Thanks John for the update

10:31:

Blitzer: Let's go to Dana for an update for the senate races

Bash: Yes Wolf and that is CNN can currently project that in the senate race of Rhode Island- The Democrat Elizabeth Roberts will defeat Senator Lincoln Chafee to become the next senator of that state and in Tennessee- We can project that the Republican Ron Ramsey will defeat Senator Harold Ford to become the next Senator of that state.

In States we have been unable to make a projection in, currently in the state of Missouri Senator Talent currently leads 50%-49%, in Ohio currently Senator Brown leads Ohio 50-49 as well but that is an underperformance for him compared to President Clinton

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Bash: Wolf Back to you

Blitzer: Lets now go over to John King and the magic wall to see now how the Senate Map looks like at this moment

King: Right now Wolf the Democrats have 47 senate seats and if you give them California and Hawaii like everyone expects then that increases their number to 49 meaning the Democrats only need 2 more seats if they want to hold the Senate and only 1 if they keep the Presidency. Given Missouri is looking like its trending there way that would give them 50 meaning all they they would need to hold the senate is either to keep the Presidency or win any one of these battleground senate races. So I would say at this moment the Senate looks very good for them.

Blitzer: Stand by as we have a very major projection to make and that is CNN Can Project that Ohio and its extremely crucial 18 electoral votes will be won by President Clinton.



Clinton 191
Jindal 184

Blitzer: This is a huge deal indeed as keep in mind Ohio is a state Democrats have not won since 1996 and is also a state that no Republican has ever won the white house without carrying. So John is it possible now for Senator Jindal to win

King: Well lets do the math. Now if you give President Clinton the states of California, Washington and Hawaii all of which have long been safe for her and Oregon given Senator Jindal's campaign gave up on it in the end then you get to President Clinton at 269 electoral votes meaning the best Senator Jindal can do from here is tie, tie. Now lets say you give Senator Jindal Idaho and Alaska states that have long been safe for him and for the sake of argument you give Senator Jindal Florida and even Virginia then he gets up to 233 electoral votes. That leaves 5 states he must sweep to even tie and currently in 4 of them: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and West Virginia he trails and in Missouri while he leads things the map is ending up very similar to 2008 there so you have to say the President has an advantage there as well. This means in all 5 of those remaining states hes an underdog and he cannot lose a single one if he wants any hope of remaining in the White House.

To use an analogy, I will have to say its greater than being down 3-0. Its more like being down 5 touchdowns in the middle of the 3rd quarter which while hypothetically its possible for the team down that much to win, it would be nearly impossible.

Blitzer: Roland wants to seem to say something so lets go to him

Martin: I would just like to point out if you hand over all the states each candidate is favored in so give Florida and Virginia to Jindal and Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri and West Virginia to Clinton then you get exactly the map I predicted which would be the President at 305 electoral votes and Senator Jindal at 233.

Cooper: Speaker Gingrich do you still have hope that Senator Jindal can win

Gingrich: To be honest, no I don't as the fact is no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio and it does not look like that fact will change tonight. I will have to say though that while Senator Jindal does look like he will lose, the fact is he still likely will come closer than any losing challenger to an incumbent has since 1916 as he does seem like he will get at least 220 electoral votes tonight which would be more than what Dewey, or Biden got . Also while the senate does not look good either, I have to say we still have a chance at gains because while Missouri does not look good, Ohio does not which means we will have at least 47 senate seats and only need one of the remaining 3 to break even and 2 to gain seats.

Begala: I have to say that is is ultimately grasping at straws as the fact is unlike in 1996 it does not look like Republicans will have the senate so its hard to say overall this is a better night for the party than 1996 was . In fact I will have to say that tonight looks like it will be the worst defeat for the Republicans since 1992 as unlike 4 years ago it does seem like we will win outright and unlike in 1996 we will likely have the senate as well.

Navarro: Yes I have to agree with Paul that is night does seem to be going down as the worst defeat for the Republicans since 1992 and while yes it is not as bad as that night, things are worse than they were in 1996 and 2008. The fact is the reason for this is Republicans for the past 4 years really I have to say have not offered much to the voters other than talking points and while yes they can get you over 200 electoral votes they dont get you over 270 which is the number that actually matters.

So I will have to say for the Republicans to win in 2014 and then 2016, the party has to realize you have to offer the voters more than just a prepared lines come up by consultants in DC as voters are smarter then people give them credit for and when parties dont respect that they end up not doing well .

Cooper: Wolf back to you

10:50:

Blitzer: Lets now go over to Dana to get a update for the house races

Bash: Thanks Wolf and currently CNN is projecting that Democrats will pick up at least 4 house seats tonight and that numbers could go as high as 14 which would be just enough to take the house though it is not looking likely now

Republicans: 216-226
Democrats: 209-219

Right now in those 10 races , the polls have closed in 7 of them and so far the Democrats are leading in 4 of those seats while the Republicans are leading in 3. Those 3 would be enough for the Republicans to take the house but with a very narrow majority. Wolf Back to you

Blitzer: Thanks Dana and we will take a break and be right back for the poll closing in the West Coast.

[BigVic]

With 11:00pm West Coast polls closing, it is hard to see how Jindal wins

[2016]

The Clinton Midwestern Firewall consisting of Minnesota (10), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10) and Pennsylvania (20) held up for her. Ohio (18) was probably the biggest target for the Clinton Campaign heading into the 2012 Election Year knowing that if she would pull out a victory there she would ensure herself Re-Election.

Some lessons needed to be learned by both Parties though:

#1 The Democratic Party Brand isn't that strong. Many Democratic Statewide Candidates, with a few Excemptions, underperforming Hillary so it's more about her then about Democrats.

#2 I know Florida and Virginia haven't been called but this would be a Disappointment for Hillary not getting them. The last 10 % in the Sunshine State are probably Democratic-leaning Votes but it looks like that won't be enough to overcome the Jindal lead. Senator Jindal should sent Governor Rubio and Senator Jeb Bush a big "Thank You" for pulling that State out. Looks it will be by a 75,000-80,000 Vote margin which brings me to Ana Navarro. Someone should ask her if Florida is now permanently gone for Democrats given it voted for former President McCain twice, then Texas Senator Bush and now Louisiana Senator Jindal.
As far as Virginia is concerned the margin might be even tighter then in Florida when all is said and done. Fairfax County is likely going to decide it. Looking ahead Democrats probably do need to win Virginia to win the Election in 2016.

#3 The fact that the strong Walker/Ryan brand was unable to carry either the 10 Electoral Votes in Wisconsin or the Senate Race has to be a big disappointment for Republicans.

#4 Republicans need to do a better job reaching out to Minorities particularly Hispanics. I said at the beginning of the 2012 Election Year Hillary would be re-elected because of the Hispanic Vote and if she does carry Colorado and Nevada which seems more likely than not at this Point I will proven to be correct on this.

Finally, wouldn't it be something if the State of her Running Mate, VP Rockefeller puts Clinton over the top. They should be close finishing the Count there. Must be exciting times at Hillarys HQ ahead of the 11pm Poll Closing.

[President Johnson]

At the OP's request:

MR. BARAK OBAMA olawakandi Atlas legend ★★★★★ Posts: 79,369

2012 election results megathread « Reply #1454 on: November 6, 2012, 09:13:24 » PA hasnt flipped, consequently R nut map isnt happening. Blks of Philly arent gonna vote Jindal just bcz hes Indian lol and blk females voted to reelect PREZ CLINTON Now blue avs already talking 2014 but Rs arent gonna win back senate anyways. They make same threafs all over again Rs already have lost election, Jindal is DONE

Suburbia bronz4141 Atlas icon ★★★★★ Posts: 18,220

2012 election results megathread « Reply #1455 on: November 6, 2012, 09:14:01 » Looking at the results from NJ and Long Island, it's evident that Clinton faced some backlash over her handling of law enforcement issues. The fact she denied crime was up in the area and mainly driven by black males is an indictment on the Democratic Party. I hope she changes course in a what looks likely 2nd term as she doesn't have to run again. We will see now NJ state elections in 2013 turns out downballot, but I'm predicting a major backlash if Clinton doesn't change course on law enforcement and crime policy. Lots of white suburban voters are fed up with it.

I couldn't have done it any better.

Seems like Clinton has the election in the bag here. The West Coast and Hawaii already get her 269 electoral votes. She just needs to win one more of Nevada, Virginia or Colorado to seal the deal.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Part 5)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

11:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: The polls have just closed on the West Coast and CNN can now project that President Clinton will win the states of California, Washington and Hawai while Senator Jindal will win the state of Idaho. The polls have also closed in Oregon but we are unable to make a projection there at this time



Clinton 262
Jindal 188

Blitzer: President Clinton is now just 8 electoral votes away from getting the magic 270 number. Now lets go to Dana for an update on the senate races

Bash: The polls have just closed in Washington and at this moment we are unable to make a projection in that race between Senator Jay Inslee and Governor Dino Rossi . Wolf back to you

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Blitzer: Thanks Dana and for those who are wondering why we have not called Oregon at poll closing, the reason is since the Republicans have won that state in the past 3 elections and since all of Oregon votes by mail, we arent able to do as reliable exit polls there. So for that reason we want to wait for the first results to come in which should in 15 or so minutes and when it does we will see if it fits with our post voter survey there before deciding whether or not to call the state. Anderson lets head to you to see what our panel thinks so far

Anderson: Alex with these results , are there any early lessons you believe the Republicans need to take in order to do well in 2014 and 2016

Castellanos: First the Republicans will have to figure out what went wrong in the suburbs in these battleground states. The fact is a Republican cannot afford to lose Hamilton County in Ohio, Clay County in Missouri, Jefferson County in Colorado and Loudon County in Virginia if they want to have a good shot of winning those states. Now is it possible to win without those counties, yes but only by a nailbiter and that's not something you can rely on to win future elections.

Now how they start to do better in those areas, is something they deeply need to look into because coming back will require hardwork and not just rephrasing of bumper stickers.

Cupp: I agree with Alex but I think the key is Republicans need a positive agenda that resonate with voters which is something that Ronald Reagan had and something John McCain had which is not something Bobby Jindal had or going back something Bob Dole or George HW Bush had which is why 1992 and 1996 were bad defeats for them as well. Yes I agree doing so will require hard work and will require Republicans to work at a grassroots level in those areas and find a candidate who can appeal to swing voters without causing your own party turnout to fall which is what Ronald Reagan and John McCain both did. Now again doing so is not easy and requires hard work and its something they have neglected to do over the past 4 years and its come back to haunt them as winning elections is more than just repeating a bunch of talking points your consultants came up with.

O'Brien: I would like to add that something Ronald Reagan and John McCain could do better than any other Republicans was their ability to appeal to the Latino Vote. John McCain in 2004 won 44% of the Hispanic vote and while the numbers for 1984 are a lot more muddied, LA Times exits had Reagan getting as much as 46% of the Hispanic vote then . So while Republicans dont need to do that well with Hispanics, I think they will need around 40 or so percent to be able to win states like Nevada and Colorado in the future which while not big are 15 crucial electoral votes . If Democrats are able to win those, then they could win even without Ohio which shows while those states are small they are still important.

Cooper: We will take a short break and come back right after this


11:20:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project Oregon and its 7 electoral votes will be won by President Clinton



Clinton 269
Jindal 188

Blitzer: As you can see that puts the President up to 269 electoral votes, just 1 short of the magic number. If we look at how the other states are doing so far then so far . In Colorado with 68% in President Clinton so far leads 51.3%% to 47.6% , In Iowa with 59% in President Clinton leads 53.7% to 45.1%, in Missouri with 55% in Senator Jindal Leads 52.9% to 46.4%, in Florida with 92% in Senator Jindal still leads 50.2% to 49%, in Virginia with 90% of the vote in just look at that Senator Jindal only leads President Clinton 49.8% to 49.2%  in West Virginia with 88% in President Clinton leads 51% to 48.2%.

In Nevada only about 1% is in so far but Senator Jindal leads there by a huge margin so far but again only 1% is in so that's misleading as only the Republicans areas are in so far. So John, Senator Jindal needs to sweep the rest of the states just to get to 269, so how realistic is that

King: It is not realistic at all because if you look at West Virginia, its becoming harder and harder to see how Senator Jindal can win that state and if he loses that state its over. The Real question in my opinion is whether or not the President can get over 300 electoral votes because if she does not , it will be harder for her to go to congress and claim a mandate so that is crucial. Now the key for that is whether or not the President can take 2 of Missouri, Virginia and Colorado. Now Colorado looks good so lets look at Missouri and Virginia, first at Virginia. In Virginia Senator Jindal leads but again the issue is that there are more votes to come from places like Fairfax County then there are the more Republican parts of the state so its gonna be a nailbiter. Before we leave Virginia though, I want to point out to Alex's point earlier that Loudon County a County that from 1952 to 2008 only voted Democratic in 1964 is going to the President 50% to 49% and that could really be key in deciding who wins the state.

Blitzer: What about Missouri

King: Again, Senator Jindal's lead there looks good but I want to point out that more of the vote is out in Kansas City and St Louis than in the more Republican Rural Parts of the state as we can see by just going to them as we are now. One small county though thats almost all in that acts like a bellweather in the state is Saline County and as you can see right now the President is actually leading there 49.7% to 49.5% which is big and if you look 4 years ago, the President won this county by a little more than half a percentage point so not much change.

Same is still true in key suburban counties like Jefferson and Clay where the President leads so really this is a state that despite its lead, I think we will have to wait till its at least 97% in before we can call it tonight.

Blitzer: Stand by as we have major news to report

Breaking News: Hillary Clinton Reelected President of the United States

Blitzer: CNN Can now Project that Hillary Clinton will be Reelected as President of the United States and will be sitting behind the Resolute Desk for 4 more years. The reason we can make this projection is we can now make a projection in West Virginia, Vice President Rockefeller's Home State, and that is we can project President Clinton will win that state and its 5 electoral votes. That bumps her electoral count from 269 to 274 which means she will have surpassed the 270 electoral votes a candidate needs to be elected President.



Clinton 274
Jindal 188


Blitzer: Lets now go over to our panel to see their reactions

Cooper: James you worked with the Clintons for many years, so what is your reaction to this result

Carville: I am very happy as the fact is Hillary Clinton has been a really good President in both a domestic and foreign policy side and I am happy she got reelected as she deserved. I also do think she has a mandate because not only will she win reelection , I believe she will get over 300 electoral votes as well and its looking very likely we keep the senate and really reduce the GOP margin in the House. So all in all, I have to say this is probably the best Democratic night in 20 years

Begala: As someone who also worked with the Clintons , I have to say I am very excited as well and really look forward to how a 2nd term goes. While many may call this too optimistic, I think it is very possible to see the type of success the President saw her first two years get repeated over the next two . The reason is at this point, Speaker Boehner cannot afford to lose more than 10 votes on key bills if he wants to keep his influence so he will rather want to be the one who makes the compromises himself rather than risk losing floor votes on key bills.

Cooper: Pat what do you think the significance of this win is

Buchanan: Really it is hard to say at the moment as we will have to wait because the fact is it looks like Republicans will retain the house and while you say Speaker Boehner will have to make compromises, the fact is so will President Clinton so thats not as comparable to the first two years. Also I would like to add about the Republicans, I think really the Republicans need to find someway to expand their appeal among Reagan Democrats in the Midwest because losses in Colorado Nevada could easily be made up by taking Michigan for example . To do that though Republicans will have to return to how Republicans used to be on economic policy which was in favor of free markets but also economically nationalist.

Cupp: First of all I want to congratulate the President and her supporters on this win but I would like to add this speculation is a bit too early. Really I would say we need to wait till at least the 100 day mark of the new term before judging how significant this reelection win as we need to see how her new cabinet is gonna be and also what she gets done in the new term as well . I will say though she will probably get more of what she wants in the next two years than the last two but its still up to question if it will be comparable to the first two.

Gergen: I agree but really the question in my opinion comes also down to who Republican Leadership will be. Will John Boehner keep his job as speaker after another disappointing result and who will replace Jon Kyl. Will it be Jeb Bush or will it be Lamar Alexander so I think the impact of this result is inconclusive until at least the first month of the new session of congress which is something we haven't seen since 1988. In 1992 there was a clear Democratic Mandate, 1996 a clear mandate for keeping the centrist status quo, 2000 and 2004 were Republican Mandates under McCain , 2008 was slight wins for the Dems across the board while this we will have to wait and see.

Borger: I have to agree with that but I have to point out the fact that we now are gonna have the Clintons has President for 16 of the past 24 years is pretty significant and that does make this election significant in that way.  

Cooper: We will take a short break and be right back after this


11:41:

Blitzer: CNN Can now project President Clinton will win the state of Iowa and its 6 electoral votes.



Clinton 280
Jindal 188

Blitzer: Lets now go to Dana for some updates on the Congressional Races as well as the results on some of the major referendums as well

Bash: CNN Can now project that John Kasich will win the Ohio Senate race and defeat Senator Sherrod Brown to be the next Senator of the state.

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia


In the House we can now project that Republicans are just one seat away from retaining their house majority and this is our new projection now:

Republicans: 217-224
Democrats: 211-218

In the state referendums CNN is able to project gay marriage will be legalized in all 4 states it was up those being Maine, Maryland , Minnesota and Washington which many believe may set the precedent up for many more states to put legalization on the ballot in 2014. On Marijuana we can project that the states of Colorado and Washington have voted to legalize recreational marijuana while in Oregon we are currently unable to make a projection but right now it does seem like the no vote is winning.

Blitzer: Thanks Dana and we will be back after a short break

[2016]

Congratulations to President Hillary Clinton getting re-elected as President. This is quite a feet considering the Country was and still is at War and the uncertainty about the Nations Economy.

While the Presidential Race is decided there is still quite a lot of Real Estate when it comes to the remaining Battleground States and most importantly Senate Races.

As expected former Rep. John Kasich beat Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio who will be a one-termer.

That being said I expect this loss by Democrats to be cancelled out by the Missouri State Attorney General Jay Nixon who is likely going to unseat Senator Jim Talent as Talent only won by the skin of his teeth in 2006. (Keep in mind that Nixon won two landslide Victories for Governor in the OTL).

As far as the Presidential Race in Missouri is concerned the St. Louis & Kansas City Metro Areas are among the last Votes to be counted which will likely lift President Clinton over Senator Jindal.

I expect Hillary Clinton to carry the States of Colorado & Nevada. While in CO most of the Vote in the Suburban Counties like Jefferson, Araphaoe and Adams seems to be in given that only 68 % has been counted it suggests that a lot of Denver Metro and Boulder is still out meaning President Clinton is likely to grow her lead there.
And in Nevada we absolutely have nothing out of Clark & Washoe Counties. If Hillary manages to win NV by 5 or more that might spell trouble for Republican Senator Dean Heller.

That leaves us with Virginia & Florida and those two States are going down to the very thinnest of wires. The remaining 8 % of the FL Vote will be Democratic. There could be a Recount there should Clinton get some 50,000 extra Votes out of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. Given Senator Jindal leads 50.2 to 49.0 that's probably around 100K.
In Virginia we have to wait until all of Fairfax County is in. I don't know if all of Alexandria & Arlington has been counted. Those 3 Democratic Strongholds could theoretically help President Clinton getting over the line there.

The most fascinating State left is Washington State. While President Clinton has carried the States' Electoral Votes the State is in a unique Position having close Races for Senate & Governor which could end up in a split Decision with Senator Inslee winning Re-Election while Republican Rob McKenna winning the Governors Race.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Part 6)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

12:29:

Blitzer: Let's now go to Baton Rouge where Senator Jindal is about to give his concession speech

Excerpts from Jindal's Concession Speech:




Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/bobby-jindal-believe-candidate-stands-10-issues

Jindal: A few moments ago, I called President Hillary Clinton to congratulate her on winning the election and told her that I look forward to working with her in helping unite our nation after a tough campaign. While the President and I may have pretty significant different policy beliefs we both love this country and we both want to see it succeed which is why it is important that we all root for the President's success as her success over the next 4 years will be our nation's success(Applause). While losing a hard fought campaign is always tough, that does not mean the fight for the ideas we fought for dies as long as we keep pushing for them and I hope those of you who voted for me continue to push for those ideas(Applause). As the Senator of this great state, I can tell you that I will do my best to try to advocate for these policies on the floor of the senate and in trying to get them passed into law(Applause).

As someone who traveled all across this nation over the past 15 months, I can tell you that I have never been more optimistic about our nation's future and an outcome of an election does not change that(Applause). At the end of the day regardless of who wins or loses an election, it is not politicians or even a President who makes a nation great but its people and I can confidently say the spirit that made our nation great is more alive than it ever has been before(Applause) . I also want to thank my campaign staff for all of their hardwork over the past 15 months because I would not have come this far without you, to Mitt Romney for being an amazing running mate who I am sure would have been a great Vice President, and to my family for providing the type of support any candidate needs to run such a long and tough campaign(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You And May God Bless America

Blitzer: Before we analyze this concession speech, lets go over to Dana for some major projections

Bash: Yes Wolf and that is that CNN Can now project that the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives

Breaking News: Republicans to Retain Control of the United States House of Representatives
Bash: CNN at this current moment can project that Republicans will have at least 218 house seats when everything is decided while Democrats will have at least 212 seats meaning there are still 6 seats which we believe will be too difficult to project either way. This is a huge sigh of relief for Republicans who had worried about potentially losing control of the house which would have given the Democrats full control of the federal government again given that CNN Can now also project that Democrats will Retain Control of the Senate.

Breaking News: Democrats to Retain Control of the United States Senate
Bash: The reason we can project that is CNN Is now able to project that Jay Nixon will be the next senator of Missouri as he will defeat Senator Jim Talent to become the next senator of that state. This moves the Democrats up from 49 seats to 50 meaning that even if they lose every other seat up tonight, Vice President Jay Rockefeller will break the tie for them to control the chamber.

In Montana with around 20% of the vote in currently John Tester leads Representative Rehburg 51.5% to 47.7%  , and in Washington with around 55% of the vote in currently Governor Rossi leads Senator Inslee 50.5% to 48.5% so there is still a long way to go in both races. Wolf Back to you

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Blitzer: Thanks Dana, now lets go over to our panel and ask for their reaction to Senator Jindal's concession speech. Newt first to you

Gingrich: Listen, I am very disappointed in the outcome of this race but I have to say that I think his concession speech hit all the right tones. First he showed he was classy and not bitter by not only congratulating the president but also reaching out and saying hes willing to work with her and second he left his supporters with an optimistic note. The reason is he made it clear that he will continue to fight for the policies he advocated for on the campaign in the senate and also told them multiple times not to give up as policy battles are more than just elections.

Navarro: I will have to agree with Newt here and have to add that while he did lose , it was no blowout. As a Floridian I have to add that , it does seem like with today's results it could be quite a while before Democrats win Florida again as if they are not winning Florida on a night they are getting over 300 electoral votes than its likely they won't contest the state as hard as they did this time. So it does seem like at this point 1996 and 2000 were aberrations and given how Democrats have fallen in the rural areas of the state since then and how Miami is different from other major urban areas, I do think it will be a state that leans Republican for a while to come.

Gergen: I have to agree with both Newt and Ana overall but where I disagree is that Senator Jindal's speech was particularly optimistic.



1:00

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that Senator Jindal will win the state of Alaska but we can also project that President Clinton will win the Western states of Colorado and Nevada.



Clinton 295
Jindal 191

Blitzer: Also in a major turn of events that has taken place, the President has just taken the lead in Virginia a state that has not gone Democratic since 1964 with around 97% of the vote in and the trend line looks very good for her there. In Missouri with 92% of the vote in, right now both candidates look at this are tied at 49.6% to 49.6% and the President only needs either one of those 2 to get passed the elusive 300 electoral mark that was their goal from the start. Ok now we will take a break and when we come back we will head to the Javits Center where the President will be giving her victory speech.

1:13:

Blitzer: Welcome back to CNN's coverage of the 2012 election and now we will be heading to the Javits Center to hear the President give her victory speech

Excerpts from Clinton's Victory Speech:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rG8cGkbGbYQ

Clinton: A short while ago I spoke to Senator Jindal who congratulated us on our victory and I congratulated him on running a well spirited campaign and pledged to work with him over the next 4 years to help make our country a better place(Applause). While we may disagree with each other on the issues, we both agree that the next few years will be an important period for our nation and it is critical that now we all come together not as Democrats or Republicans but as Americans to solve the issues we are facing(Applause). While there are a lot of things we do great , it is important to understand the way to make our nation even better is to tackle the problems we currently face head on and resolve them and that is what we will do(Applause).

While we may face economic uncertainty, it is my belief we will come out of this time stronger than we ever have before and campaigning all across the nation over the past few months has only strengthened my belief that we will(Applause). I want to end by thanking all the people who have supported me through not only this campaign but throughout my political career because this victory is your victory and I will do all I can to repay that trust(Applause). Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America.


Blitzer: There you have it , the President just gave her victory speech thanking her supporters for reelecting her and pledging to bring the country together to try to solve the problems our nation faces. Lets send it to Anderson now to see what our panel thinks of this speech

Cooper: So Roland what was your thoughts about the speech

Martin: I think the speech was well delivered and a clear attempt by the President to reach out to those who did not vote for her and I think she did a good job at that like most candidates who give victory speeches do. I think what is interesting is the fact that while she did not directly say it but clearly implied the fact that she is claiming a mandate to push through many policies she did not get through in her first term and time will only tell if she is successful in that endeavor or not.

Borger: I have to add what is important is the fact is President Clinton will have regained the momentum she needed to push through a domestic agenda given the fact that it does look like she will get over the 300 electoral vote mark at this point , and we know the Democrats will retain the senate as well as pick up at least 8 seats in the House of Representatives which is why the President mentioned what she mentioned in her speech as I think the speech was not only aimed at her supporters or those watching at home on tv but also moderate House Republicans she will need to really deliver on this new mandate.

Begala: I have to say that no surprise but I thought it was a great speech as it did 1. make it clear she intends to unite the nation after a toughly fought campaign 2. at the same time claim a mandate to push for certain policies. I have to add given the circumstances of 4 years ago, the President also definitely is happy she can give her speech in front  of supporters back home rather than at DNC headquarters.

Cooper: Before we hear from more of you , I have to send it back to Wolf for one second

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that Florida and its 29 electoral votes will be won by Senator Jindal which while wont get him over the 270 mark, will get him well passed the 200 mark.



Clinton 295
Jindal 220


Blitzer: Anderson back to you

Cooper: Pat as a long time Republican how did you feel about this speech

Buchanan: I have to say that while it was not bad , I dont think it was that memorable either. I do have to agree with my colleagues that while she did claim a mandate , I don't think there was any line we will remember here. I think really what we should be watching is her inaugural address and her first state of the union in her new term to see how what will come out of this election.

[2016]

Nice Speeches by Senator Jindal & President Clinton aiming for "Unity". I like that.

6 House Races are Uncalled. Where are they? The fact is that the Networks had to wait until well past Midnight is not good for Boehner & Republicans. The Freedom Caucus is going to cause havoc for him.

3 Senate Seats Uncalled and it is conceivable Democrats could win all 3. I think the remaining Vote in Washington State is probably mostly from King County which makes the Math difficult for Governor Rossi.

In Montana Jon Tester is a strong Incumbent and in Nevada the Question how much coattails did Hillary provide to Shelley Berkley. This is probably the Seat that's most difficult to get for Democrats.

I think Hillary Clinton will win both Virginia and Missouri, although there could be Recounts.

[President Johnson]

Good work, as usual. I think Hillary will win Virginia on top of that while Jindal takes Missouri. But still kind of odd a Democrats wins West Virginia in 2012.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Good work, as usual. I think Hillary will win Virginia on top of that while Jindal takes Missouri. But still kind of odd a Democrats wins West Virginia in 2012.

Well , a large reason for this is because the Republican president of the 2000s was John McCain rather than George W Bush . McCain was known to be an environmentalist for a Republican as he pushed stuff like cap and trade even as far back as 2003(and in this TL got that legislation passed as well) while George W Bush was the exact opposite and under his presidency the environment became a major wedge issue between the two parties .

With McCain that does not happen so while West Virginia still trends Republican it’s not as rapid as OTL . Without Rockefeller on the ticket , it’s likely that Hillary loses WV here as well and republicans do have a senator there as well (Captio and Manchin’s seats are opposite classes of OTL though).

[BigVic]

Hillary gets another 4 years after she won a close and contentious election in 2008

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2012(Rest of Results)



2:13:

Blitzer : Let’s go over for Dana for a projection

Bash : Yes Wolf and that is CNN Can also project that Nevada Senator Dean Heller will win a full term to the US senate . This win means the Republicans at the very least will retain the 48 seats they had going into this election although they will remain in the minority in the senate .

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia

Bash: In the gubernatorial race CNN can now project that in Vermont The Democrat Peter Shumlin will be the next governor of that state in Indiana , The Republican Mike Pence will be the governor and in Washington- The Republican Rob McKenna will be the next governor of that state . We are currently unable to make a projection in Montana but at the moment Steve Bullock the Democrat is slightly outrunning Jon Tester so things do look favorable for him there . Wolf Back to you

Blitzer : Those are some interesting results indeed . Let’s now head to Anderson to see what our panel thinks

Cooper : James what do you think of those results

Carville : I am disappointed in Indiana but I have to say that Mike Pence is probably very happy the gubernatorial races there are in presidential and not midterm years as Indiana’s presidential lean almost certainly carried him over the top this year . As for Washington , I have to say that Governor Rossi probably is regretting running for the senate when he could have just run for reelection and easily won given McKenna won . The reason is while the Washington senate race isn’t over , multiple websites that do running probabilities on candidates chances of winning now have Senator Inslee chances at 90% and rising so it does seem like Governor Rossi will have given up his job for nothing .

Navarro: I disagree with James here as the fact is Governor Rossi has been governor for 8 years now which is a while in the position so why would he not want to try out something different. It’s not like the timing was gonna get better as the next senate race would be in 2016 as well which is a presidential year

Carville: Maybe so but at least you have a job in that case and also 2016 would have either been in a year which would be either open if President Clinton won like she did or with a Republican incumbent if Senator Jindal won both of which is better than running in a year with a democratic incumbent. So I think it does look like to be a miscalculation by Governor Rossi but not an uncommon one.

Cooper: Wolf we will head back to you


2:49:

Blitzer: CNN is now able to project that President Clinton will win the state of Missouri and its 10 electoral votes to go over the elusive 300 electoral mark she was targeting. With over 99% of the vote in the President is leading Senator Jindal by around half a percentage point and given the precients out we do not believe that Senator Jindal can overcome that margin in Missouri.



Clinton 305
Jindal 220

Blitzer: Now lets go over to John King and the magic wall to see how that happened

King: The reason the President won the state of Missouri and all these battlegrounds is actually very similar and that is she won the suburbs in those states. As has been said before, presidential elections are decided in the suburbs as we know rural areas will go republican and urban areas democratic so suburbs are what decides election.

Republicans after this election will have to see and reasses what they are doing wrong because if you go through these states and you can see a pattern : the President won the suburbs of Kansas City and St Louis and won Missouri, she won the suburbs of Cincinnati and won Ohio, won the suburbs of Denver and won Colorado, won the suburbs of Las Vegas and won Nevada and in Virginia you can see she is winning the suburbs of DC and is leading in Virginia. Heck even go to these smaller states that went Republican the last 3 elections and you can see in New Hampshire that the suburbs of Boston that used to be very Republican in New Hampshire have trended Democrats and in Oregon the suburbs of Portland that the last 3 times only barely went Democratic went Democratic by a healthy margin this time.

Blitzer: How hard of a problem is it for the Republicans to solve

King: I would say it all depends on the type of candidate as remember 8 years ago we were all talking about the problems the Democrats are having in the suburbs, in 1996 talking how the break up of the once solid GOP suburbia could make it hard for them to win elections and of course in the 1980s people said that that the GOP strange hold on the suburbs would make it impossible for the Democrats to win. Each time of course the party out of the white house did come back but the key is they had to work for it and the test for the Republicans is whether or not they are willing to put in the hard work to do it . Of course there also will be a test for the Democrats as outside the Clintons no Democrat has done well in the suburbs since 1964 so the next few elections are shaping up to be interesting.

Blitzer: Thanks John and we will take a short break

3:49:

Blitzer: Let's go over to Dana for our last downballot projections of the night

Bash: Yes Wolf and that is CNN can now project that in Washington - Senator Jay Inslee will be re-elected in a tight race over Governor Dino Rossi . In Montana though CNN can officially now say that we will not be able to project the winner of the senate race and as such we will now be coloring it purple given this news. This means at the end of the night the Democrats will have 51 Senators , the Republicans will have 48 while 1 will still remain outstanding.

 

Seats Currently Held By Democrats:

Nebraska
Michigan
Montana
Ohio
Tennessee
Washington
Wisconsin

Seats Currently Held by Republicans:

Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
Rhode Island
Virginia


Bash: This though is not true in the other Montana race as CNN Can project the Democrat Steve Bullock will be the next governor of that state.

In the House CNN Can now project at the end of the night the Republicans will have won 219 house seats, the Democrats will have won 214 house seats and in two of the races we will not be able to make a projection. Those two races will be Calfornia's 26th district where the Democrat Julia Browney currently holds a tight lead vs the Republican Tony Strickland and in California's 36th district where the Republican Mary Bono holds a tight lead vs the Democrat Raul Ruiz.

Lastly for the Referendums up - CNN can project that voters have voted to legalize gay marriage in every state up tonight :  Maine, Maryland , Minnesota and Washington but Marijuana had a more split night as the voters in Colorado and Washington voted to legalize recreational use while voters in Oregon by a narrow margin voted to not legalize it.

Ok Wolf Back to you


Blitzer: Thanks Dana and it also was perfect timing as CNN can now project that the state of Virginia and its 13 electoral votes will go to a Democrat for the first time in 48 years as we can project President Clinton will win that state.



Clinton 318
Jindal 220

Blitzer: Lets now get some final thoughts from some members of our panel before we officially wrap up our election night coverage

Cooper: David do you think the fact that the President won Missouri and Virginia to put her over the 300 mark makes an actual difference in governing or is it just for bragging rights

Gergen: In my opinion it absolutely makes a difference as the President can now go to congress and really have the ability to say they represent the country as a whole while if you get less than 300 electoral votes it is hard to really exercise your influence if another party holds congress for example.  Also I think really what this election also signifies is really how good democratic recruiting has been . The fact is both Howard Dean and Kirsten Gilibrand have been extremely successful leaders of the DNC and it will be interesting to see whether or not the democrats can keep up that success with their next leader .

O'Brien: I will say my takeaway from this election is that while Republicans can get to 200 Electoral votes fairly reliably which is a number they did not reach in either 1992 or 1996, getting to the 270 mark is still not easy despite having a higher floor. The fact is what the President did very effective in this election was she went in with pretty good chances of sweeping West Coast, the Upper Midwest and the North East which means Senator Jindal had no margin for error if he wanted to win and thats not really a good strategy for the future. Now again that is though what everyone also thought after 1996 and in 2000 and 2004 we saw a state from each one of those regions go for President McCain .

Castellanos: I think the biggest takeaway is the takeaway we can take from every election in the past 30 or so years and that is the candidate who wins the suburbs will win the election. The Clintons have been very effective at appealing to those types of voters which is why they won in 1992, 1996 , 2008 and now in 2012. Whether the Democrats can hold those gains, only time will tell

Borger: Before we go I want to point one last thing and that is it is gonna be very hard for the Republicans despite holding the house to change the President's agenda as the fact is if Republicans move to the right after this, you will see them far more vulnerable to losing key house votes from moderates and thus giving Democrats effective control of the chamber or if they move to the center they face the risk of facing the wrath from their own members. So because of that I would have to say this election is a mandate for the President and like I said earlier we shall now see how she uses it.

Blitzer: We want to thank all of you for watching our coverage of the 2012 election and we are very grateful for our team who made this coverage possible. We now shall return to regular programming where our regular scheduled hosts will be analyzing the election results and the impact in more detail.

[2016]

Quick Mentioner: 2012 was the Election where a certain Florida Congressman won.

Not sure what OSR has in store for Ron DeSantis down the road.

As expected with the Final Vote Drops Hillary Clinton carried Virginia and Missouri. Therefore she came only 12 Electoral College Votes shy off what Obama got in the OTL (He got 332).

I predict Montana Senate is going to a Recount.

Boehner is in a tough Spot only having a 220-215 Majority at best. He will have to make some deals which will anger the Freedom Caucus.