NV-SEN (Beacon Research): Cortez-Masto +6 (LV) (user search)
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  NV-SEN (Beacon Research): Cortez-Masto +6 (LV) (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV-SEN (Beacon Research): Cortez-Masto +6 (LV)  (Read 662 times)
UncleSam
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Posts: 2,523


« on: July 31, 2022, 02:37:21 AM »

If what this and various other pollsters have found is accurate, Republicans would not only lose seats in the Senate but also fail to flip the House and lose a few governor's mansions, doing much worse than in 2020 and coming close to their absymal 2018 performance, i.e. this election would constitute the most dramatic midterm election underperformance of the opposing party since the FDR era.

Looking forward to history being written this November and a historic vindication of the polling industry.

Not necessarily. The GCBs in this poll are telling quite a different story from the topline Senate/GOV #s for the most part. Seems to be a divergence where Dems could very well take the senate, but the House will still go GOP.

Again, I think it really just goes back to the environment in terms of the Senate is better for Dems (post-Dobbs, etc.) but that the candidate quality is just really dragging down the GOP.

The same poll has the GCB at R+5 in PA but Shapiro and Fetterman up double digits. Goes to show voters aren't necessarily keen on voting on Ds, but the R candidates in a lot of these situations are just too unpalatable at the same time.

I could be wrong, and polls could all be way off. But that's my best guess interpreting the data at this point.
If you really believe it is possible that in November 16% of voters will vote for an R for congress and a D for statewide office GCB R+5 to Fetterman +11) then I have a bridge to sell you.

Yes some ticket-splitting will happen. But these polls showing massive divergences are just not believable. Maybe there are some primary voters still sore about things, or maybe Dems are just doing significantly better in the GCB than polls are capturing. But these two things will converge come November, candidate quality just does not matter that much in the end.
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