NV-SEN (Beacon Research): Cortez-Masto +6 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

July 5-20, sponsored by Environmental Voter Project

RV: Cortez Masto 49, Laxalt 39
LV: Cortez Masto 51, Laxalt 45

https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2022-survey-topline-data.pdf

Beacon Research is also one half of the Fox News polling outfit

[Sir Mohamed]

Is this the first good poll coming out from NV? At least more telling than these 44-41% leads, which are pretty much worthless.

The RV/LV difference yet again confirm undecided voters largely lean GOP, and they're expected to win the lion's share of them (basically the same as the GA poll).

Tilt D. We need more polls. If that keeps up, it's close to Lean D.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is actually a great poll for Masto, considering Sisolak is only up +2 in the same poll of LV, and Rs are actually +1 on the GCB among LV as well.

[MT Treasurer]

If what this and various other pollsters have found is accurate, Republicans would not only lose seats in the Senate but also fail to flip the House and lose a few governor's mansions, doing much worse than in 2020 and coming close to their absymal 2018 performance, i.e. this election would constitute the most dramatic midterm election underperformance of the opposing party since the FDR era.

Looking forward to history being written this November and a historic vindication of the polling industry.

[Sir Mohamed]

If what this and various other pollsters have found is accurate, Republicans would not only lose seats in the Senate but also fail to flip the House and lose a few governor's mansions, doing much worse than in 2020 and coming close to their absymal 2018 performance, i.e. this election would constitute the most dramatic midterm election underperformance of the opposing party since the FDR era.

Looking forward to history being written this November and a historic vindication of the polling industry.

It's hardly possible to estimate how accurate polls will be in the end. The polls conducted in October will be way more important, and they can change. I think they will, since the margins are off by various degrees.

[wbrocks67]

If what this and various other pollsters have found is accurate, Republicans would not only lose seats in the Senate but also fail to flip the House and lose a few governor's mansions, doing much worse than in 2020 and coming close to their absymal 2018 performance, i.e. this election would constitute the most dramatic midterm election underperformance of the opposing party since the FDR era.

Looking forward to history being written this November and a historic vindication of the polling industry.

Not necessarily. The GCBs in this poll are telling quite a different story from the topline Senate/GOV #s for the most part. Seems to be a divergence where Dems could very well take the senate, but the House will still go GOP.

Again, I think it really just goes back to the environment in terms of the Senate is better for Dems (post-Dobbs, etc.) but that the candidate quality is just really dragging down the GOP.

The same poll has the GCB at R+5 in PA but Shapiro and Fetterman up double digits. Goes to show voters aren't necessarily keen on voting on Ds, but the R candidates in a lot of these situations are just too unpalatable at the same time.

I could be wrong, and polls could all be way off. But that's my best guess interpreting the data at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If what this and various other pollsters have found is accurate, Republicans would not only lose seats in the Senate but also fail to flip the House and lose a few governor's mansions, doing much worse than in 2020 and coming close to their absymal 2018 performance, i.e. this election would constitute the most dramatic midterm election underperformance of the opposing party since the FDR era.

Looking forward to history being written this November and a historic vindication of the polling industry.

Do you know why Rs overperformed they handed out stimulus checks in 2020 under Trump and unemployment was declined from 9 to 7 that's why Rs like Collins overperformed, not only that Trump net gained seats in 2018/20 with 40/54 Approvals like BIDEN

We haven't had a stimulus check since last yr but individual states are giving enhanced child credits out just like the Feds gave out last yr, meaning homeless people on SSA and Seniors and people under 30 and disabled without checks

[UncleSam]

If what this and various other pollsters have found is accurate, Republicans would not only lose seats in the Senate but also fail to flip the House and lose a few governor's mansions, doing much worse than in 2020 and coming close to their absymal 2018 performance, i.e. this election would constitute the most dramatic midterm election underperformance of the opposing party since the FDR era.

Looking forward to history being written this November and a historic vindication of the polling industry.

Not necessarily. The GCBs in this poll are telling quite a different story from the topline Senate/GOV #s for the most part. Seems to be a divergence where Dems could very well take the senate, but the House will still go GOP.

Again, I think it really just goes back to the environment in terms of the Senate is better for Dems (post-Dobbs, etc.) but that the candidate quality is just really dragging down the GOP.

The same poll has the GCB at R+5 in PA but Shapiro and Fetterman up double digits. Goes to show voters aren't necessarily keen on voting on Ds, but the R candidates in a lot of these situations are just too unpalatable at the same time.

I could be wrong, and polls could all be way off. But that's my best guess interpreting the data at this point.

If you really believe it is possible that in November 16% of voters will vote for an R for congress and a D for statewide office GCB R+5 to Fetterman +11) then I have a bridge to sell you.

Yes some ticket-splitting will happen. But these polls showing massive divergences are just not believable. Maybe there are some primary voters still sore about things, or maybe Dems are just doing significantly better in the GCB than polls are capturing. But these two things will converge come November, candidate quality just does not matter that much in the end.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Other Source on 2022-07-20

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details