PA-SEN (Beacon Research): Fetterman +11 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

July 5-20, sponsored by Environmental Voter Project

RV: Fetterman 47, Oz 34
LV: Fetterman 50, Oz 39

https://www.environmentalvoter.org/sites/default/files/documents/july-2022-survey-topline-data.pdf

Beacon Research is also one half of the Fox News polling outfit

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems to confirm other polls recently out, though there's no way Fetterman wins by nearly that much. The LV models already show GOP candidates to better across the board. I still expect GOP candidates win 80% of undecideds at least. That said, Fetterman would still come out on top, at least as things stand today. That can change till November.

[wbrocks67]

Seems to also confirm that Oz is indeed doing terrible with the base and still has plenty of room to grow. Great to see Fetterman at 50 of course, but even among the LV base, 11% undecided is still pretty high.

Definitely a scenario where likely 70-80% of those undecideds will end up voting R, especially with an R+5 GCB among LV in the same poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The John Bolton poll had Fetterman up 44/38 if that pollster had Fetterman up it's OVER

[Alben Barkley]

LOL

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I don't know how this race will end - other than I'm reasonably confident it won't be a 10 point margin - but Republicans definitely made an unforced error nominating a candidate who has no meaningful connections to the state.

[Xing]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

[Yoda]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

I could understand this line of thinking if it was just one poll, but we're on poll like #10 showing Fetterman with a high single-digit, low double digit lead. From a purely data perspective, too may polls from too many disparate sources to conclude that reality is somehow being hidden from us by optimistic or skewed polls. Fetterman is ahead at the moment, and outside of the MOE at that.

[Minnesota Mike]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

Xing also said there was no way Andy Beshear won and he won on provisions ballots like Evers over Scott Walker and he predicted 1 wrong in GA and both Ossoff and Warnock didn't win outright they were trailing

[Xing]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.

What's the maximum Fetterman win that you would consider believable?

[Brittain33]

It’s believable that Oz is widely disliked AND a large but not decisive share of voters will commit to him only at the very last minute out of partisanship.

[wbrocks67]

Of course Fetterman isn't winning by 11, but it's clear he's clearly winning right now. Even the Republican insiders are admitting that it's showing up in internals in the numerous articles about this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s believable that Oz is widely disliked AND a large but not decisive share of voters will commit to him only at the very last minute out of partisanship.

Biden is from Scranton and it's not unthinkable that PA and MI are solid D states due to fact Casey and Wolf won by double digits and Trump is making a okay for PA in 24 he has no chance with Casey and STABENOW on MI and PA ballot in 24

It's over when Bolton and Fox had Fetterman up 44/38

Oz was a D before he turned R anyways and most Muslim are swing voters but vote D, MI is a Muslim state and D's dominate the state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.

You are wrong, your R nut map has 0 probably

[Xing]

Feels kind of like WI-SEN 2016 in that there’s just no way these polls are believable given the fundamentals.

Fundamentals = my priors.

This is not the kind of year where a result like D+11 in PA would make any sense, and the same was true of polls in WI at the time. If it were a Trump midterm, then sure, it’d be believable.

What's the maximum Fetterman win that you would consider believable?

I’m not sure, maybe a 3-4 point win or so?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Fetterman needs to send David McCormick a check if he wins lol. He did a lot of damage to Oz's image.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Fetterman needs to send David McCormick a check if he wins lol. He did a lot of damage to Oz's image.

Kathy Barnette more so than McCormick. It's possible that the chunk of her voters who did not want to support Oz in the general will make the difference between Fetterman winning and losing.

[wbrocks67]

Fetterman needs to send David McCormick a check if he wins lol. He did a lot of damage to Oz's image.

Kathy Barnette more so than McCormick. It's possible that the chunk of her voters who did not want to support Oz in the general will make the difference between Fetterman winning and losing.

and she has still not yet endorsed Oz either

[Horus]

Fetterman needs to send David McCormick a check if he wins lol. He did a lot of damage to Oz's image.

Kathy Barnette more so than McCormick. It's possible that the chunk of her voters who did not want to support Oz in the general will make the difference between Fetterman winning and losing.

and she has still not yet endorsed Oz either

He's not a Christian and I think that bothers her. I also think it bothers a segment of Republican voters.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Fetterman needs to send David McCormick a check if he wins lol. He did a lot of damage to Oz's image.

Kathy Barnette more so than McCormick. It's possible that the chunk of her voters who did not want to support Oz in the general will make the difference between Fetterman winning and losing.

and she has still not yet endorsed Oz either

He's not a Christian and I think that bothers her. I also think it bothers a segment of Republican voters.

It would not be wise or ethical for Fetterman or any groups supporting him to make note of this, but I wouldn't put it past some far right group to run ads reminding folks that Oz is Muslim.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

And if Fetterman wins, I think that's the end for Kyrsten Sinema. What argument does she have now? She can't seriously argue she's the only democrat that can win in a swing state if a bernie sanders supporter is winning one in an R wave year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not an R wave yr it's a neutral cycle 303 map and we can win NC and OH Senate races if it was an R wave yr we would be losing 30 Govs and we're not Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro will win, and we lost seats in the H in 2020 with a 303'map in. 2020

[SnowLabrador]

And if Fetterman wins, I think that's the end for Kyrsten Sinema. What argument does she have now? She can't seriously argue she's the only democrat that can win in a swing state if a bernie sanders supporter is winning one in an R wave year.

I still feel like she'll pull out her primary. We live in the darkest timeline.