Fox News PA, GA: Fetterman +11, Warnock +4

[AncestralDemocrat.]

"Muh 2020 polling error" seems like a not very compelling point to me. It's literally one data point! I think a bigger issue is that Biden is at -15 net favorability according to this poll, which seems high for Pennsylvania. 538's aggregate has him at -16 nationally; I'd have to imagine that it would be lower in PA, although maybe it's just an artifact of recent momentum in Biden's favor. Even adjusting for that, though, this is still a darn good poll for Fetterman, mainly because Oz has McConnell-tier approvals in a state 28 points bluer than Kentucky.

You know full well the polling error goes further back than 2020..

It's a intrinsic issue with the industry which has yet to be rectified or even recognized amongst most polling organizations.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

You hope

I hope..?

I mean it's more likely than not.. please point me towards a article to which pollsters have suggested they've rectified the methodology which has so consistently failed them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If polls were the end all be all then we wouldn't have to vote Democracy Corp have D's outpacing Biden 39 percent Approvals

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552324255316119553?t=bId9UIBpS7GpMm-FbIbd-A&s=19

This is a Fox poll that had Rs up 7 on GCB in May

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

"Muh 2020 polling error" seems like a not very compelling point to me. It's literally one data point! I think a bigger issue is that Biden is at -15 net favorability according to this poll, which seems high for Pennsylvania. 538's aggregate has him at -16 nationally; I'd have to imagine that it would be lower in PA, although maybe it's just an artifact of recent momentum in Biden's favor. Even adjusting for that, though, this is still a darn good poll for Fetterman, mainly because Oz has McConnell-tier approvals in a state 28 points bluer than Kentucky.

Oz has consistently been under 40% in favorability. Also, he doesn't have a Republican in the Governor's race to drag him over the finish line as might happen with Walker.

[Minnesota Mike]

I'm not sure we need another PA Senate poll thread but here is another one.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552823423394521089

[GeorgiaModerate]

There was a drought of PA polls and now it seems like the floodgates have opened.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

There was a drought of PA polls and now it seems like the floodgates have opened.

We really need more Nevada polls, there has only been 4 this entire year, and only 1 after early April according to RCP.

[JM1295]

With all the talk about polling misses and exaggerating democratic support , wasn't GA Senate polling pretty accurate in 2020? Particularly in the runoffs, but even the general election between Ossoff and Perdue was fairly on-point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With all the talk about polling misses and exaggerating democratic support , wasn't GA Senate polling pretty accurate in 2020? Particularly in the runoffs, but even the general election between Ossoff and Perdue was fairly on-point.

It was exceptionally accurate. The average also nailed the Presidential result almost exactly.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

With all the talk about polling misses and exaggerating democratic support , wasn't GA Senate polling pretty accurate in 2020? Particularly in the runoffs, but even the general election between Ossoff and Perdue was fairly on-point.

Southern polling (apart from Florida) does tend to be more accurate than most..

They nailed Youngkin's margin in Virginia (average was around 1.5 points).. while in New Jersey there was a significant miss outside the margin of error (8 points average, 2 point win for Murphy).


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_ciattarelli_vs_murphy-7372.html

[GALeftist]

"Muh 2020 polling error" seems like a not very compelling point to me. It's literally one data point! I think a bigger issue is that Biden is at -15 net favorability according to this poll, which seems high for Pennsylvania. 538's aggregate has him at -16 nationally; I'd have to imagine that it would be lower in PA, although maybe it's just an artifact of recent momentum in Biden's favor. Even adjusting for that, though, this is still a darn good poll for Fetterman, mainly because Oz has McConnell-tier approvals in a state 28 points bluer than Kentucky.

You know full well the polling error goes further back than 2020..

It's a intrinsic issue with the industry which has yet to be rectified or even recognized amongst most polling organizations.

The notable thing about the 2020 polling error isn't really that it was a continuation of a pattern; polls were also quite off in 2016, of course, but again, two cycles doesn't make a law of nature, as is evidenced by the fact that 2018 Pennsylvania polls were pretty good.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not bad, but I'm just not getting my hopes up early. These polls may kind of reflect where the race stands as of today, with Fetterman and Warnock pretty much getting the numbers / vote share, they should absolutely get. Meanwhile, a majority of undecided voters almost certainly end up voting for the GOP candidate. Red waves tend to built up in the fall, so unless the polls are totally off, we might very well see some tightening in September or October. If we start seeing October polls like 50-46%, 49-45% or 51-47%, then the D candidate is in a good position.

I agree that "muh 2020 polls were off" is kind of a lazy argument since polls in 2018 were mostly correct. People just need to keep in mind the amount of undecideds and how they went in previous cycles, and that we're still over 3 months away from the election. Polling, even if accurate within the MoE, reflect where things roughly stand now. That's subject to change.

[DaleCooper]

I could definitely see Oz underperforming other Republicans dramatically. He's about the worst person Republicans could be running, and Fetterman actually seems smart enough to know how to highlight his worst qualities. He's campaigning against the elitism rather than "Radical Trump Supporter Mehmet Oz"

[kwabbit]

It's not that I disbelieve the Republicans' favorability numbers, since Oz is a out-of-touch carpetbagger and Mastriano is nuts, it's that I disbelieve the Democrat favorability numbers. Shapiro/Fetterman currently aren't and will not be +15 among the actual 2022 electorate in PA. Fox had a huge RV/LV switch for the VA Gov race, so maybe if that was applied it would be Fetterman/Shapiro +4, but I think Fox and other pollsters are getting faulty samples more than anything.

[Yoda]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

Not according to the topline poll numbers or the fav/unfav numbers you're not.

[Hammy]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

Regardless of whether the poll calls the winner correctly, a 47-36 poll in a two way race just screams bad data

[Unelectable Bystander]

Also you have 9% undecided White voters for the matchup, but 20% undecided nonwhite voters.

Not that it says anything about the undecideds, but this is misrepresentation. 9% of an 81% white electorate is still greater than 20% of a 19% nonwhite electorate. There’s almost twice as many undecided whites left

[wbrocks67]

Also you have 9% undecided White voters for the matchup, but 20% undecided nonwhite voters.

Not that it says anything about the undecideds, but this is misrepresentation. 9% of an 81% white electorate is still greater than 20% of a 19% nonwhite electorate. There’s almost twice as many undecided whites left

Right, but those whites would likely be split in their support while the nonwhite electorate would likely be more D-leaning

[wbrocks67]

It's not that I disbelieve the Republicans' favorability numbers, since Oz is a out-of-touch carpetbagger and Mastriano is nuts, it's that I disbelieve the Democrat favorability numbers. Shapiro/Fetterman currently aren't and will not be +15 among the actual 2022 electorate in PA. Fox had a huge RV/LV switch for the VA Gov race, so maybe if that was applied it would be Fetterman/Shapiro +4, but I think Fox and other pollsters are getting faulty samples more than anything.

I'm not sure how these are hard to fathom? Shapiro and Fetterman are both well-liked state incumbents who have also not been hit that hard over the airwaves. I'm sure those #s could go down as the natural progression of the election cycle continues, but they aren't unbelievable #s.

There's also a lot of "there's a lot of time left for this to change", and sure, but it's also been over two months since the primary and things have gone from bad to worse for both Mastriano and Oz. There's a lot of magical wishcasting that things will suddenly get better for them over the next 3 months, when there is just as much of a chance that they don't.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Fox News on 2022-07-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details