Fox News PA, GA: Fetterman +11, Warnock +4

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1552780553937715201

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news😃

[Person Man]

lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

[Person Man]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

And yet those who benefit from “systemic polling errors” are the ones that complain about voter fraud? Come on man. I’m not retarded. Well maybe a little.

[xavier110]

Oz is definitely going to close this in a couple months as Rs come home. But he still may lose. Those unfavorables.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

It's been pretty clear for a while that Democrats are going to outperform Biden's approvals in some capacity, simply due to the fact that a lot of people who disapprove of him are people who are going to vote Democrat regardless (Women, young people, people of color, progressives)

[here2view]

Notable possibility for some potential crossover appeal, with 89% of Democrats loyal to Fetterman but only 73% of Republicans loyal to Oz.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

It's been pretty clear for a while that Democrats are going to outperform Biden's approvals, simply due to the fact that a lot of people who disapprove of him are people who are going to vote Democrat regardless.

I do expect Dems to outperform Bidens approvals to some degree (the democrat base is obviously more than 36%).. but it will obviously still be a drag.. unless something truly anomalous happens in November.

This poll suggests a environment more akin to a blue wave than the current generic ballot..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1552324255316119553?t=bId9UIBpS7GpMm-FbIbd-A&s=19

Democracy Corps have D's ahead
50/48 so the Approvals are meaningless

[GALeftist]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

Asinine to use polls as evidence against themselves imo. Biden's approval is not exactly stellar in these polls! The polled individuals clearly both disapprove of Biden and favor Fetterman/Shapiro. If you have some reason why this couldn't be true among the general population, that would be a valid point, but this isn't when Ds are approaching 50%.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1552789041136934913?t=20Im7cDu9mQ5QrOeA5w...

I'm not saying that the polls will be off the same amount as they were in 2020. But in 2020, many pollsters promised that it wouldn't be like 2016 and that they weighed for education this time. We saw how that turned out.

[Brittain33]

It’s a nitpick, but polls showing big leads several months before the election aren’t necessarily in error, they could reflect the state of the race at that time especially in Senate elections where people don’t always know the candidates early on.

It’s certainly true a lot can happen between now and November to make these polls inoperable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't gonna win the same polls are showing Rand Paul in the lead are they errors no

Those polls were taken right after George Floyd protests when D enthusiasm was sky high many of those polls were based on under 30 many don't vote but they voted provision ballots because they don't have permanent addresses and they vote in the wrong precinct of their parents

[wbrocks67]

Odd that they would include Stern here, since I’m not even sure if he actually qualified for the ballot.

Oz clearly has room to grow, since there is 5% undecided Democrats but 13% undecided GOPers. However, there’s 31% undecided Indies and they currently go +14 for Fetterman. Fetterman also has a 39/27 fav with Indies, while Oz has a …. 20/54.

Also you have 9% undecided White voters for the matchup, but 20% undecided nonwhite voters.

Either way, very hard to spin Fetterman having an overall +15 favorability and Oz having -20.

[soundchaser]

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

The Republican candidates in both of these races are abysmal; you shouldn't expect these margins to line up exactly with either metric.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance is losing in OH and Johnson is down by 2 in WI

[wbrocks67]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

You're not an idiot. How MANY times do we have to go through this entire thing. Biden's approval is quite irrelevant in all honesty to many of these races for many reasons. That's already been talked about ad nausem here that I can't believe it still needs to be explained.

The generic ballot is tied right now. So in a neutral environment, not hard to see how strong Dem candidates would be outperforming and terrible GOP candidates would be underperforming.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

You're not an idiot. How MANY times do we have to go through this entire thing. Biden's approval is quite irrelevant in all honesty to many of these races for many reasons. That's already been talked about ad nausem here that I can't believe it still needs to be explained.

The generic ballot is tied right now. So in a neutral environment, not hard to see how strong Dem candidates would be outperforming and terrible GOP candidates would be underperforming.

Well.. if Bidens horrific approval is going to have no drag at all or be completely irrelevant (which is quite a conclusion given we're 4-5 months away from the general), as you are suggesting.. this will be a truly anomalous midterm.

I guess we'll see who was right in November.

[wbrocks67]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

We'll find out in November, won't we?  You could be right -- but I'd rather be the side ahead in the polls than the one behind.

I'm very likely to be right..not sure I'd feel comfortable being on the side that's support has been consistently exaggerated by significant margins.. pollsters clearly have no desire to change the methodology.

These polls simply don't correlate with presidential approval and even the current tied generic ballot average (538).

You're not an idiot. How MANY times do we have to go through this entire thing. Biden's approval is quite irrelevant in all honesty to many of these races for many reasons. That's already been talked about ad nausem here that I can't believe it still needs to be explained.

The generic ballot is tied right now. So in a neutral environment, not hard to see how strong Dem candidates would be outperforming and terrible GOP candidates would be underperforming.

Well.. if Bidens horrific approval is going to have no drag at all or be completely irrelevant (which is quite given we're 4-5 months away from the general), as you are suggesting.. this will be a truly anomalous midterm.

I guess we'll see who was right in November.

I mean, it'll play a minor impact I'm sure. But I think you're right in that this will be an anomalous midterm for a couple different reasons, most importantly that the GOP has nominated terrible candidates and that we're in unprecedented times with the Supreme Court ripping away a 50-year precedence.  Those types of things override someones "meh" dislike of Biden.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Prepping for another historic polling miss.

You hope

[GALeftist]

"Muh 2020 polling error" seems like a not very compelling point to me. It's literally one data point! I think a bigger issue is that Biden is at -15 net favorability according to this poll, which seems high for Pennsylvania. 538's aggregate has him at -16 nationally; I'd have to imagine that it would be lower in PA, although maybe it's just an artifact of recent momentum in Biden's favor. Even adjusting for that, though, this is still a darn good poll for Fetterman, mainly because Oz has McConnell-tier approvals in a state 28 points bluer than Kentucky.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It’s a nitpick, but polls showing big leads several months before the election aren’t necessarily in error, they could reflect the state of the race at that time especially in Senate elections where people don’t always know the candidates early on.

It’s certainly true a lot can happen between now and November to make these polls inoperable.

Snapshot, not a prediction.