PA: Fox - Shapiro +10

[sting in the rafters]

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

[sting in the rafters]

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.

1. Are you seriously doubting that I am Keystoned to the bone?
2. Remember this buddy?

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

I'd rather take investment advice from Bernie Madoff. You are really just a fiend for that polls copium.

[sting in the rafters]

oh gurl you need to stop being so obsessed with me. really dragging up quotes from nearly a year ago? spend your time doing something productive

Bro it's literally 2 clicks in my user alerts because I have so few posts compared to you. You tell me who's terminally online. And it's the same principle. Appalachian turnout was fired up in VA, South Jersey turnout was fired up for Rs in NJ-GOV, Applachia will be fired up for Mast/Oz this fall.

By the way, I left my drawers in your mom's room. Can you send them to my 7-11 Amazon locker on 34th and Lancaster in Philly when you get the chance? I'll PM you the specific code for my locker. Much appreciated.