PA: Fox - Shapiro +10
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Author Topic: PA: Fox - Shapiro +10  (Read 1631 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: July 28, 2022, 05:41:08 PM »


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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2022, 05:42:34 PM »

Great poll😃
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2022, 05:51:57 PM »

Sucks for Pennsylvania Republicans.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2022, 05:55:52 PM »

Sucks for Pennsylvania Republicans.

Assuming this poll is accurate, I don't feel bad for them at all. They made their bed by nominating horrible candidates.
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2022, 05:56:42 PM »

Using the assumption of 80% of undecideds going R (which I believe is the high end of likelihood)

Fetterman 50.4
Oz 49.6

Shapiro 52
Mastriano 48

These are the "worst case" numbers for dems, imo. I think it's more likely that polls end up being right assuming 75% of undecideds go R. That'd bring Fetterman to a 51.25-48.75 victory and Shapiro to a 52.5-47.5 win. Sounds about right to me if things keep going the way they're going.
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2022, 05:56:53 PM »

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEEEEAAASE
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2022, 06:09:09 PM »

Look for the GOP to increasingly switch to conventions over primaries, so they can pick bland establishment Youngkin who the media will giddily launder as “moderates,” instead of literally the worst batch of candidates I’ve ever seen coming out of the primaries this year.
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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2022, 06:18:23 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2022, 06:30:41 PM »

Some takeaways here

- Shapiro getting 9% of Republicans, while Mastriano only getting 2% of Democrats  (only 5% of Dems and 8% GOP undecided)
- Shapiro +28 with Indies, 47-19
- Shapiro winning the suburban vote, 58-35, with only 4% undecided (including 68-23 among Suburban women)
- Shapiro has +17 favorable (51/34) compared to Mastriano’s -10 (38/48)
- Even Shapiro’s net fav with GOP isn’t horrible - 16/65.
- Mastriano’s net fav with Indies is 15/51.

Honestly this poll could be even worse for Mastriano, given that the subsample for 18-45 seems pretty R-leaning compared to reality, and 14% of nonwhites are undecided compared to 7% of Whites.
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2022, 06:41:35 PM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2022, 06:46:51 PM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2022, 06:51:16 PM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.

Come to think of it, I don't think I've seen ANY ads that are specifically anti-Shapiro. 
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2022, 06:51:26 PM »

Look for the GOP to increasingly switch to conventions over primaries, so they can pick bland establishment Youngkin who the media will giddily launder as “moderates,” instead of literally the worst batch of candidates I’ve ever seen coming out of the primaries this year.
From what I understand that would be very difficult to do in Pennsylvania because pretty much every office including state and local party is covered by and established by state law and the state constitution. Like in PA local party leaders are elected in primaries and conventions are basically just for ceremonial things much like the national conventions are in effect.

They might push for it anyway but it would require passing via referendum.
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2022, 06:53:02 PM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.

Come to think of it, I don't think I've seen ANY ads that are specifically anti-Shapiro. 
Considering how much money Mastriano has that's not surprising.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2022, 07:00:21 PM »

It's almost incredible to me that Republicans cannot just simply understand that Josh Shapiro is a well-liked statewide politician who, while Rs in the state don't necessarily like, don't have a 'hatred for', while Mastriano is a terrible candidate objectively with no money at all and again, objectively extremist, unpopular policies and opinions. This isn't hard to comprehend.
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2022, 07:02:32 PM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.

1. Are you seriously doubting that I am Keystoned to the bone?
2. Remember this buddy?
While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

I'd rather take investment advice from Bernie Madoff. You are really just a fiend for that polls copium.
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2022, 07:57:35 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2022, 01:42:36 AM »

Using the assumption of 80% of undecideds going R (which I believe is the high end of likelihood)

Fetterman 50.4
Oz 49.6

Shapiro 52
Mastriano 48

These are the "worst case" numbers for dems, imo. I think it's more likely that polls end up being right assuming 75% of undecideds go R. That'd bring Fetterman to a 51.25-48.75 victory and Shapiro to a 52.5-47.5 win. Sounds about right to me if things keep going the way they're going.

Yup, that's pretty much where the race stands right now.

It's not the 50% for Shapiro that's questionable, it's the 40% for Mastriano (although that what's Scott Wagner got in 2018).
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2022, 02:05:23 AM »

I've personally shifted this race to LEAN-D, but Likely could very well happen if Shapiro holds his lead until ~October.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2022, 08:11:41 AM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.

1. Are you seriously doubting that I am Keystoned to the bone?
2. Remember this buddy?
While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

I'd rather take investment advice from Bernie Madoff. You are really just a fiend for that polls copium.

oh gurl you need to stop being so obsessed with me. really dragging up quotes from nearly a year ago? spend your time doing something productive Smiley
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« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2022, 05:21:52 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.


I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.
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« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2022, 05:42:52 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.


I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

Well I think Oz and Mastriano both piss off different parts of a coalition one needs to win as a Republican in PA.
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« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2022, 05:46:56 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.


I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

Well I think Oz and Mastriano both piss off different parts of a coalition one needs to win as a Republican in PA.

That definitely doesn't help. Particularly for Oz. I don't know who thought a Muslim celebrity doctor who doesn't even reside in the state would be a candidate who would resonate with the GOP base, but whoever they were (Trump definitely has at least some responsibility here) might just be a hero if Fetterman wins here.

Mastriano meanwhile has the appeal Oz would need, but alienates basically everyone else.

Maybe if they were combined into one candidate they'd be formidable.
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« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2022, 06:16:20 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.


I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

Well I think Oz and Mastriano both piss off different parts of a coalition one needs to win as a Republican in PA.

That definitely doesn't help. Particularly for Oz. I don't know who thought a Muslim celebrity doctor who doesn't even reside in the state would be a candidate who would resonate with the GOP base, but whoever they were (Trump definitely has at least some responsibility here) might just be a hero if Fetterman wins here.

Mastriano meanwhile has the appeal Oz would need, but alienates basically everyone else.

Maybe if they were combined into one candidate they'd be formidable.

Or maybe they'd combine both their weaknesses. Smiley
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« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2022, 06:24:45 PM »

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.


I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

Well I think Oz and Mastriano both piss off different parts of a coalition one needs to win as a Republican in PA.

That definitely doesn't help. Particularly for Oz. I don't know who thought a Muslim celebrity doctor who doesn't even reside in the state would be a candidate who would resonate with the GOP base, but whoever they were (Trump definitely has at least some responsibility here) might just be a hero if Fetterman wins here.

Mastriano meanwhile has the appeal Oz would need, but alienates basically everyone else.

Maybe if they were combined into one candidate they'd be formidable.

Or maybe they'd combine both their weaknesses. Smiley

It's like an awful version of Voltron.
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