>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45
Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.
They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.
Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.
Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.
This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.
Come to think of it, I don't think I've seen ANY ads that are specifically anti-Shapiro.
