PA: Fox - Shapiro +10

[Progressive Pessimist]

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

[Progressive Pessimist]

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.

I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

[Progressive Pessimist]

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.

I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

Well I think Oz and Mastriano both piss off different parts of a coalition one needs to win as a Republican in PA.

That definitely doesn't help. Particularly for Oz. I don't know who thought a Muslim celebrity doctor who doesn't even reside in the state would be a candidate who would resonate with the GOP base, but whoever they were (Trump definitely has at least some responsibility here) might just be a hero if Fetterman wins here.

Mastriano meanwhile has the appeal Oz would need, but alienates basically everyone else.

Maybe if they were combined into one candidate they'd be formidable.

[Progressive Pessimist]

These polls continue to be encouraging, especially with Shapiro, and sometimes Fetterman too being at or close to 50% in so many of them, I am just so scared of another polling error that underestimates Republicans again.

I have to believe that candidate quality matters, as much as it's often derided as a joke, to stay sane. It's kind of our only hope for the midterms to not end up as bad as they could be.

Well 2020 showed us that the Democrats usually win what the polling % says they should- it's probably off a bit but undecided voters make up for it. So Shapiro at 50% with Mastriano back by 10 means Shapiro is favored.

I suppose that's true. I always tend to think that a consistent showing of 50% or more in polling, if it can be sustained, is a good predictor of an election. In spite of both their races being much closer than expected both Biden and Murphy had this, to name some examples.

So I'm feeling somewhat okay about the Governor's race in Pennsylvania at least. Shapiro's lead just needs to be maintained for another three months.

The same will hopefully happen to Fetterman too, but Senate races don't exist in a vacuum as often as gubernatorial races can. Though Fetterman is obviously running a great campaign so far in defining Oz who is lacking in any real competent defenses. If I wasn't taking the environment into consideration, and factors outside of Democrats' control, I would say he's doing enough to convince me that he'll win. It does look like the easiest win of the big four Senate races though, I would say, and winning it immediately makes the Republican path to a Senate majority more difficult.

Well I think Oz and Mastriano both piss off different parts of a coalition one needs to win as a Republican in PA.

That definitely doesn't help. Particularly for Oz. I don't know who thought a Muslim celebrity doctor who doesn't even reside in the state would be a candidate who would resonate with the GOP base, but whoever they were (Trump definitely has at least some responsibility here) might just be a hero if Fetterman wins here.

Mastriano meanwhile has the appeal Oz would need, but alienates basically everyone else.

Maybe if they were combined into one candidate they'd be formidable.

Or maybe they'd combine both their weaknesses.

It's like an awful version of Voltron.