PA: Fox - Shapiro +10 (user search)
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  PA: Fox - Shapiro +10 (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA: Fox - Shapiro +10  (Read 1693 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,044
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: July 28, 2022, 06:51:26 PM »

Look for the GOP to increasingly switch to conventions over primaries, so they can pick bland establishment Youngkin who the media will giddily launder as “moderates,” instead of literally the worst batch of candidates I’ve ever seen coming out of the primaries this year.
From what I understand that would be very difficult to do in Pennsylvania because pretty much every office including state and local party is covered by and established by state law and the state constitution. Like in PA local party leaders are elected in primaries and conventions are basically just for ceremonial things much like the national conventions are in effect.

They might push for it anyway but it would require passing via referendum.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,044
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2022, 06:53:02 PM »

>Fetterman leading indies 32-18
>Oz only getting 73% of Rs
>12% of white evangelicals "undecided" (yeah ok)
>Fetterman leading 46-36 with white women w/no degree
>Shapiro winning the white vote by 6 points
>Mastriano stronger with voters under 45 than over 45


Cmon people this happens every cycle with PA. I'll give the polls shows the parties at base support which factoring in for weighting and response bias means the race is effectively dead-even which is better than the Lean R I thought a couple weeks ago, but you shouldn't be paying attention to polls until Labor Day to begin with. Do not believe for a second Rs will have trouble getting the base out the door. For Ds it's still gonna be up to the trades keeping the rank-and-file in NEPA/SWPA in line, giving all the left-leaning college-grad indies in Philly burbs/Lehigh Valley a reason to stay engaged by pointing out what Mast wants to do w/abortion, getting out the vote in Philly, and inflation subsiding. Toss-ups both of them.

They're already engaged. And it's summer time. You just proved your own point. They're engaged now, they're not going to stop as we get *closer* to the election.

Once again, people outside of PA trying to act like they know what's going on in this state.

Shapiro won't win by 10, obv. But he's already at 50 in how many polls now, and Mastriano's clear weaknesses are showing.

This is also not surprising at all given Shapiro and Ds have blanketed the airwaves with Mastriano ads for two months now while Mastriano has $0 to his name.

Come to think of it, I don't think I've seen ANY ads that are specifically anti-Shapiro. 
Considering how much money Mastriano has that's not surprising.
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