NJ-Senate 2008: Christie will Not Run

[Conan]

I will be supporting Baroni. He has proven that he can win in Democratic territory, look at the returns from his district, it is amazing.

Gormley is hinting at a US Senate run, but he will go nowhere, and rightfully so. And no, LoBiondo's district would not turn Democratic when he retires.

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

[Kevin]

How about Christane Todd Whitman?

[Conan]

How about Christane Todd Whitman?

She'd be trashed. Too much baggage.

[Kevin]

How about Christane Todd Whitman?

She'd be trashed. Too much baggage.

What about the baggage of your man Lautenburg and besides being corrupt as humanly possible seems to be a big plus for a canidate in New Jersey elections.   

[Conan]

How about Christane Todd Whitman?

She'd be trashed. Too much baggage.

What about the baggage of your man Lautenburg and besides being corrupt as humanly possible seems to be a big plus for a canidate in New Jersey elections.   

Lautenberg has never been called corrupt by anyone, republican, democrat or anyone else. Besides we all know baggage only counts when you're a republican in NJ.

[Yates]

Perhaps the Republicans' most electable potential candidate is Representative Chris Smith.

[Verily]

Perhaps the Republicans' most electable potential candidate is Representative Chris Smith.

Anti-abortion = not electable state-wide in New Jersey. Especially not when you're as rabid as Smith about it.

[Yates]

Perhaps the Republicans' most electable potential candidate is Representative Chris Smith.

Anti-abortion = not electable state-wide in New Jersey. Especially not when you're as rabid as Smith about it.

Alright.  Perhaps Mike Ferguson?

[Verily]

Perhaps the Republicans' most electable potential candidate is Representative Chris Smith.

Anti-abortion = not electable state-wide in New Jersey. Especially not when you're as rabid as Smith about it.

Alright.  Perhaps Mike Ferguson?

He almost turned what should have been an easy victory into defeat this year; he's a terrible campaigner. (Most of the reason Stender did so well is because Ferguson ran ads calling her "Stender the spender", giving her name recognition and looking pathetically childish at the same time.)

[MAS117]

Perhaps the Republicans' most electable potential candidate is Representative Chris Smith.

Anti-abortion = not electable state-wide in New Jersey. Especially not when you're as rabid as Smith about it.

Alright.  Perhaps Mike Ferguson?

Ferguson has already stated he intends to run for reelection to the House in 2008.

[HardRCafé]

Besides we all know baggage only counts when you're a republican in NJ.

So sad.  So true.

[Yates]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

[HardRCafé]

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

People in Minnesota.

[Conan]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

People don't associate him with corruption, he's probably the most respected Republican in our delegation.

[Kevin]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

People don't associate him with corruption, he's probably the most respected Republican in our delegation.

Your clalling NJ Republicans corrupt isn't that kind of hypacritcal?

[Conan]

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

The next Congressman from the Second district will be Nick Asselta, who has strong ties to the AFL-CIO and who is very popular with a large base. Whelan will not run for Congress, Van Drew likely will.

Don't be so sure Whelan will win the Senate, he got off easy in 2005 because the Republicans dropped the ball by not exposing his actual record, he won't be so lucky this time.

The republican party of NJ is incompetent. Nick Asselta may have strong ties to the AFL-CIO but let's not forget that the Democratic party is the AFL-CIO. I am pretty sure a dem will win the House seat when it opens. Maybe not Gormely's senate seat but it's still close and can happen there.

[Conan]

Alright.  I assume that Scott Garrett, Jim Saxton, and Frank LoBiondo, are too conservative for the state.  What about Rodney Frelinghuysen? (Forgive my spelling.)

People distrust him because he's from a family notorious for corruption, even though he isn't himself, much like Harold Ford, Jr. However he's nowhere near as charismatic as Ford.

People don't associate him with corruption, he's probably the most respected Republican in our delegation.

Your clalling NJ Republicans corrupt isn't that kind of hypacritcal?

I just said the man wasn't corrupt!

[Adlai Stevenson]

The odd thing about New Jersey is that it always seems to be a close race that ends up being won by around 5%-10% by the Democrats.  The Republicans have been disappointed so often in the state.  Eventually, surely one of them must break through?  Kean, Jr. arguably was the candidate to do it and he lost by a wider margin than Bush did in 2004. 

I am not particularly proud of Jon Corzine, Frank Lautenberg and especially Robert Menendez.  In fact I hope Lautenberg retires and gives Robert Andrews the chance to run. 

If I were a Republican I would not bother giving any attention to New Jersey until the 2009 gubernatorial race; Corzine conceivably could be vulernable and Kean, Jr. would be more likely to succeed.  The GOP have poured so much money into the state in 2002, 2004 and 2006 and ended up without anything to show for it.  As someone said, with the funds diverted to Kean, Jr. in 2006 they probably could have kept Virginia and Montana and thus the Senate. 

[agcatter]

NJ is a waste of GOP resources.  They have no chance.  No more realistic than Dems trying to win a Senate seat in Texas.

[Kevin]

The odd thing about New Jersey is that it always seems to be a close race that ends up being won by around 5%-10% by the Democrats.  The Republicans have been disappointed so often in the state.  Eventually, surely one of them must break through?  Kean, Jr. arguably was the candidate to do it and he lost by a wider margin than Bush did in 2004. 

I am not particularly proud of Jon Corzine, Frank Lautenberg and especially Robert Menendez.  In fact I hope Lautenberg retires and gives Robert Andrews the chance to run. 

If I were a Republican I would not bother giving any attention to New Jersey until the 2009 gubernatorial race; Corzine conceivably could be vulernable and Kean, Jr. would be more likely to succeed.  The GOP have poured so much money into the state in 2002, 2004 and 2006 and ended up without anything to show for it.  As someone said, with the funds diverted to Kean, Jr. in 2006 they probably could have kept Virginia and Montana and thus the Senate. 

Had this been a Repubican year I think Menedez would have most likely lost.

[Keystone Phil]

I promised myself that I wouldn't get worked up about GOP chances here because NJ is always a let down. I will, however, still follow the race and wish the best of luck to the GOP nominee. I'm now solidly behind Bill Baroni. He can make it a good race.

[Keystone Phil]

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

Just because Bush only won by a point doesn't mean the seat is going Dem. Van Drew would be strong but what else do the others offer? Why would Whelan be a lock for the seat?


Also, what are you talking about in regards to Whelan running for the State Senate? I've only heard of one Dem running so far. There hasn't been a statement by Whelan in the last day has there?

[Conan]

Actually it will. It went 50 Bush 49 Kerry. It's trending dem and dems are much better financed then reps in NJ. 3 of the GOPs NJ seats will flip when they open.
LoBiondo's seat is State Sen. - elect Whelans for the taking
State Dem reps who can run:
Assemblymen:
Van Drew
Albano
Whelan
Fisher
Whelan
State Senators:
Whelan (currently an assemblyman, is running for Gormely's Senate seat and I predict he'll win)

Reps:
Assembly:
Blee (running for Senate seat being vacated by Gormley)
Senate:
Gormely (retiring this year)
Asselta

Just because Bush only won by a point doesn't mean the seat is going Dem. Van Drew would be strong but what else do the others offer? Why would Whelan be a lock for the seat?


Also, what are you talking about in regards to Whelan running for the State Senate? I've only heard of one Dem running so far. There hasn't been a statement by Whelan in the last day has there?

Well by the time the seat opens up it's pretty much 50-50 (In 2008 or 2010) and Dems have greater representation in that area a long with more candidates. We also have the money and the local labor support most likely. The GOP is an incompetent failure in NJ. Our operation is just much better. I think Corzine carried the district too and probably Al and Menendez. I am pretty sure Whelan is running, I think I read it on politicsnj.com

Edit: Corzine did carry the district
Corzine 92564  -   54%
Forrester 80569 -  46%
Municipal numbers arent out for 2006 yet so I can't confirm Menendez
Al had a substantial lead in the counties where they are fully included in the district so it's safe to assume he won it.

[Keystone Phil]

Well by the time the seat opens up it's pretty much 50-50 (In 2008 or 2010) and Dems have greater representation in that area a long with more candidates.

No, that's not necessarily true. You can't say that it will turn out that way with each passing year just because of the Presidential candidates. In a McCain vs. Hillary race, would you say that it would end up 50-50? I doubt it.

I wouldn't say that the Dems have more representation there. You have some notable Assemblymen and possibly a State Senator soon but I am pretty sure that the GOP still dominates on the local level.

 

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The growing influence from outside areas like Camden definetley works in your favor in regards to man power, money, etc. I will also concede that the NJ GOP is a mess. However, if the local groups band together under the leadership of the widely influential LoBiondo, the GOP is still favored. The local parties will do everything they can to keep that seat.

As for Whelan, I was informed that he has been mentioned for the seat for awhile but has not announced anything. I thought you were claiming that he was definetley in. A race with Whelan in it will be interesting.

Edit: Corzine did carry the district
Corzine 92564  -   54%
Forrester 80569 -  46%
Municipal numbers arent out for 2006 yet so I can't confirm Menendez
Al had a substantial lead in the counties where they are fully included in the district so it's safe to assume he won it.
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