How would Dems keeping congress in 2022 impact 2024?

[Sir Mohamed]

Not saying there's much of a chance this happens, but assuming it did and Dems defied history and all odds, how would a Democratic victory in the midterms impact the 2024 race? Say the House more or less stays the same with Dems in the 220-225 seats range while they net at least one seat (PA) in the senate.

Would this help Biden because he could attempt to pass more legislation from his agenda or does it hurt him, because he has to own everything that happens?

And do you think this may scare off or discourage potential GOP candidates, including Trump? I think it may be burdon for Trump if he announces before the midterms and the GOP subsequently loses.

[emailking]

I think it helps Biden, because in a scenario where Dems keep the House, they're probably getting at least a net pickup of 2 in the Senate which means they can kill the filibuster or at least do carveouts. They will also be able to muscle through something like BBB. So that will go a long way towards satisfying the Dems and Dem leaning indies that have soured on Biden in the last year.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think Biden actually has a much better chance (as in non-zero) in a scenario where Republicans do win Congress, because he has something other than Trump to run against. Running solely against Trump is not going to be a political winner in 2024, even if Trump is on the ballot.