Bases:
Dem Party West Coast, Southwest, Urban Northeast. The Dem Party continues to thrive in its previously strong areas as well as strengthens in The Southwest due to The Nationalist Party playing a spoiler as well as new immigrants.
Rep Party: Moderating on social issues, the GOP has found strength in previously strong areas including The Southeast and the suburban Northeast. It also remains strong in The West where it has been revitalized with the more radical wings being turned off.
Nationalist Party: New Party that has found strength particularly among WWC and socially conservative whites. It's fringe characteristics have attracted the fringes of the former GOP as well as neo-segregationists and white supremacists.
Our America Party: This labor party has found new roots among the WWC who are not particularly socially conservative.
Green Party: No E.V.
Libertarian Party: No E.V.
RCV:
1. Democrat: 29% P.V.
2. Republicans: 28% P.V.
3. Our America: 24% P.V.
4. Nationalists: 13% P.V.
5. Libertarians: 5% P.V.
6. Greens: 1% P.V
Top-two:
1. Democrat: 50% (100% of Democrats, 100% of Greens, 75% of Our America, 40% of libertarians)
2. Republican: 50% (100% of Nationalists, 100% of Republicans, 60% of libertarians, 25% of Our America)
Tossup lean-Rep: Florida,, Maine (At. lg), New Mexico (Takes into account assimilation, otherwise 50% D)
Pure tossup: South Carolina (Assuming Charleston, and Charlotte suburbs grow), Utah (Assuming SLC grows and millennials are more secular), Texas (Likely to be a near-perfect swing-state by now), Pennsylvania (Depends on Dems margins in the Philly sub/exurbs).
Tossup lean-Dem: Michigan (Depends on urban turnout), Rhode Island (Assuming Providence doesn't grow and rurals trend R, otherwise 50% D)
Minnesota is an honorable mention although I anticipate Minneapolis growth will cancel Rep gains elsewhere making it into an Illinois-type state but by weaker margins.
Dems narrowly win the E.C.
