Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)

[Hatman 🍁]

if the party wants to actually win, it has to appeal to suburbanites. Who can they do that the best? The party only holds on suburban seat (if you count Oshawa as a suburb), and Jennifer French isn't expected to run. The party's inroads into Brampton have been a flop, though it's possible to get those voters back, I guess. I'm not sure electing Jagmeet's brother would be a good idea, though.

Picking a downtown Toronto MPP as leader would be a great way to further lose blue collar ridings, and it's no guarantee the party will hold on to their seats in Downtown Toronto. Picking someone like Gates might be the best way to hold on to Andrea's coalition, though it won't necessarily help win suburban seats.

All this to say, I'm not sure who to support at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

if the party wants to actually win, it has to appeal to suburbanites. Who can they do that the best? The party only holds on suburban seat (if you count Oshawa as a suburb), and Jennifer French isn't expected to run. The party's inroads into Brampton have been a flop, though it's possible to get those voters back, I guess. I'm not sure electing Jagmeet's brother would be a good idea, though.

Due to its historical electoral idiosyncracy, I wouldn't count Oshawa among the suburban seats--but as inferred w/Fife, a lot of the small-city urban seats are in fact "suburbanish", and the Chandra Pasma gain of OW-N *almost* makes up for the loss of the Brampton seats; plus even 416 cases like Doly Begum and Tom Rakocevic.

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

Picking up inner-suburban seats like OWN, Scarborough SW and HRBC is all well and good, but I'm of course talking about the 905. The NDP has to pick up seats in Peel and Durham to win (I would write off York and Halton). The 1990 coalition is no longer feasible.

For those of you bringing up Jack Layton, remember he didn't do all that well in Toronto until 2011, and even then he didn't do that well province-wide compared to Andrea. But what Jack did bring to the table was a populist shtick even though he represented a downtown Toronto riding. Can Marit Stiles do that?

[Hatman 🍁]

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.

Kamloops is a bad example, the North seat didn't even vote NDP in 1996 and the South one was a perfect bellweather until 2017 (which means it rarely voted NDP). I also think Kamloops itself voted NDP, but it's cracked in two seats.

It's really easy to check these things now in ridingbuilder. Kamloops did not go NDP in 2020, they lost 44-38.

[Hatman 🍁]

While there is a bit of a correlation based on income, the NDP is able to win ridings with above average incomes. Ottawa Centre, University-Rosedale, Toronto-Danforth, St. Paul's, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Waterloo and London West are all above average. Apparently even Nickel Belt is above average in wealth.

[Hatman 🍁]

Marit Stiles is the first person to announce her leadership candidacy. She's already been endorsed by Chandra Pasma, Kristyn Wong-Tam and Bhutila Karpoche.

She's most likely going to be the front runner as the establishment candidate. I hope we don't see a coronation like in BC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leadership elections are a good way to sign up members and get more money, right? That can't be a bad thing. And if a few credible candidates run, then you avoid having insurgent candidates like Appathurai gain any traction.

I would like to have some choice, even if I do end up supporting Stiles. I don't want to begin her leadership by resenting the fact that I didn't get one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like it. I'm going to be releasing a poll this week that shows only Charlie Angus has a chance to beat her, but the chances of him running are next to nil.

Really too bad. I'm sure Marit is awesome at all, but not being given the chance to vote will put a bitter taste in my mouth to begin her leadership.

[Hatman 🍁]

You seem to really be spinning this as much as possible. It's not going to convince me to like it. It's not about outcomes anyway, it's about denying my chance to participate in the process.  There's already a perception the party doesn't listen to its grassroots. This isn't going to help that.

[Hatman 🍁]

*Sigh*