Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:05:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)  (Read 2826 times)
toaster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 352
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 18, 2022, 08:55:13 AM »

The Ontario NDP will choose a new leader in March of 2023.  Interested candidates have until December to enter the race.

According to CityTV, "Several NDP caucus members have previously indicated their intention to seek the party’s leadership including:"

Intending to Run:
Laura Mae Lindo (Kitchener Centre)
Marit Stiles (Davenport)
Wayne Gates (Niagara Falls)
Catherine Fife (Waterloo)

Considering a Run:
Sol Mamakwa (Kiiwetinoong)

Not running:
Joel Harden (Ottawa-Centre)
Peter Tabuns (Toronto-Danforth)
France Gélinas (Nickel-Belt)
John Vanthof (Temiskaming-Cochrane)

Logged
VPH
vivaportugalhabs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,682
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2022, 11:08:06 AM »

Would love to see Wayne Gates as leader of the ONDP but I think his part of the party (blue-collar smaller city/rural) is waning.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2022, 08:45:19 AM »

if the party wants to actually win, it has to appeal to suburbanites. Who can they do that the best? The party only holds on suburban seat (if you count Oshawa as a suburb), and Jennifer French isn't expected to run. The party's inroads into Brampton have been a flop, though it's possible to get those voters back, I guess. I'm not sure electing Jagmeet's brother would be a good idea, though.

Picking a downtown Toronto MPP as leader would be a great way to further lose blue collar ridings, and it's no guarantee the party will hold on to their seats in Downtown Toronto. Picking someone like Gates might be the best way to hold on to Andrea's coalition, though it won't necessarily help win suburban seats.

All this to say, I'm not sure who to support at this point.
Logged
The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2022, 10:48:55 AM »

Would love to see Wayne Gates as leader of the ONDP but I think his part of the party (blue-collar smaller city/rural) is waning.

NDP's small city support seems to be going the way of the Liberals' support in the rural southwest circa 2000's - as in, incumbent Dippers are able to hold on, but once the incumbent is gone, the riding is gone. Most NDP incumbents held on - Gilles Bisson, Faisal Hassan, and the Singh duo in Brampton being the exceptions, but those were special cases. The NDP's probably better off doubling down on the urban vote, but then again, that's probably a bad trade-off considering they already have most of the properly urban areas, and as for the suburbs, (most of) the 905 seems to have a severe orange allergy.
Logged
toaster
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 352
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2022, 11:33:07 AM »

Looking down the list of current Ontario NDP MPPs, I do think there are a few who could maintain that labour/progressive coalition. Jamie West (Sudbury) is a union guy who seems to fit in nicely/get along well with with the downtown Toronto ONDP MPPs, he also kind of has the goofy/positive Jack vibes.  Wayne Gates would be another one, as would Jennifer French.  If the Liberals do end up choosing a Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, I do think the ONDP will risk losing many of those urban seats, so might as well focus on maintaining the labour left.  I don't know much about Marit, does I do think she's the front runner at this point.
Logged
lilTommy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,819


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2022, 03:50:09 PM »

I'm wondering if Fife might be a good fit for someone who could perhaps bridge the two; She's not from Toronto but represents an urban seat which is a bit of everything like most medium sized cities are; a mix of working class and professionals. She comes with a lot of the experience at Queens Park and has been the parties finance voice. I don't think she has a union background though, mostly educational and elected experience.
Stiles does have some union cred, but it comes from her time with ACTRA, so not really the same union pool. More in-line with Public Sector unions rather then Industrial/manufacturing unions that are the small city ones the party needs to get back into. More of an insider I think, she was federal party president for a time.
West is an interesting name, and on paper he does have that strong blue-collar AND urban progressive feel to him, a Layton-like guy. Just as comfortable at a labour day parade as he is a Pride parade. BUT I think he is much less known then the others mentioned.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2022, 04:28:40 PM »

if the party wants to actually win, it has to appeal to suburbanites. Who can they do that the best? The party only holds on suburban seat (if you count Oshawa as a suburb), and Jennifer French isn't expected to run. The party's inroads into Brampton have been a flop, though it's possible to get those voters back, I guess. I'm not sure electing Jagmeet's brother would be a good idea, though.

Due to its historical electoral idiosyncracy, I wouldn't count Oshawa among the suburban seats--but as inferred w/Fife, a lot of the small-city urban seats are in fact "suburbanish", and the Chandra Pasma gain of OW-N *almost* makes up for the loss of the Brampton seats; plus even 416 cases like Doly Begum and Tom Rakocevic.

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2022, 05:04:45 PM »
« Edited: July 19, 2022, 05:13:32 PM by DL »

I'm not so sure about whether Catherine Fife will run if Marit Stiles is running (and she will run). Sounds like they might be fishing from the same pond and apparently they are close friends.

I like the IDEA of Wayne Gates more than I like Wayne Gates himself as a potential leader. He seems affable enough, but he strikes me as a bit of a buffoon and not the sharpest knife in the drawer. He is NOT the Ontario NDP's answer to John Fetterman! If I was looking for a leader who could shore up the small city blue collar segment, I'd sooner go for someone like Jamie West from Sudbury. But these geographic considerations don't always go according to plan. The one time the Ontario NDP won was with the urbane, sophisticated Bob Rae and by far the most popular federal leader the NDP ever had was the very urbane, sophisticated, bike riding Jack Layton! In contrast the bleakest period ever for the Ontario NDP was when they were led by a hockey-playing "man's man" from Fort Frances named Howard Hampton. Look at the NDP's results during the Hampton years in Windsor, hamilton, Niagara, the north - absolutely abysmal!

I'm a big fan of Marit Stiles. I think she is a great communicator and is very smart and strategic. Who cares if the riding she represents is in Toronto? You know who else represents a Toronto seat? Doug Ford! When Jack Layton ran to be federal leader of the NDP the big knock against him was that he was from downtown Toronto and that supposedly "everyone" hates Toronto blah blah blah. Does anyone seriously think the NDP would have been better off if they had picked Bill Blaikie instead of Jack Layton in 2003? I really don't care where the next leader's riding is located. I care about the presentation skills of the next leader. The fact that Marit has a background in the performing arts is a big plus. The best politicians are the ones who know how to act.

I am not at all fazed by the possibility that the OLP might pick Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as their next leader. All we know about him is that he is a "maverick" in the federal Liberal caucus who occasionally votes against the government and that gets him some attention. Beyond that, I'm not sure there is much there. There is a big difference between being an itinerant gadfly in Ottawa and actually leading a party. If the Ontario NDP could win 31 seats and sweep the old City of Toronto - including even St. Paul's while being led by a mediocrity like Andrea Horwath who was very unappealing to urbanites - imagine how much better the NDP could do with a leader who is actually poised and smart and strategic and a good communicator. Marit Stiles come on down!
Logged
The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2022, 10:28:03 PM »

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2022, 07:15:59 AM »

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.

While I realize that, it's also why I raised Peter Kormos because his legacy's key to whatever putative "Fetterman strategy" might be out there.  Plus, the BoJo backlash has meant that a lot of those '19 Red Wall pickups in the UK aren't necessarily looking eternal--all the shift means is that Bolsover and Sedgefield will probably never again be the Labour rubber stamps they were a generation ago; but that's not the same as being never-again-competitive--even when it comes to the Kamloopses and Skeenas in BC.  In other words, eff the "broad trend"; the NDP can still be viable on its own terms in such places, a little by disarmingly channeling what's made them viable in the past in such places. 

And when it comes to the NDP, it can be not just a matter of leadership, but a matter of a perceived "team"--while the party won under Bob Rae in '90, one might argue how the fact that its big tent included "Kormos populism" sealed the deal in the heartland.  And likewise, an urban-centric "team" helped Horwath get into OO in '18.  IOW the party doesn't need a Wayne Gates type as a *leader* to reach into those populist corners--and those populist corners would be more by way of reinforcement than the entire package...
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2022, 08:30:07 AM »

if the party wants to actually win, it has to appeal to suburbanites. Who can they do that the best? The party only holds on suburban seat (if you count Oshawa as a suburb), and Jennifer French isn't expected to run. The party's inroads into Brampton have been a flop, though it's possible to get those voters back, I guess. I'm not sure electing Jagmeet's brother would be a good idea, though.

Due to its historical electoral idiosyncracy, I wouldn't count Oshawa among the suburban seats--but as inferred w/Fife, a lot of the small-city urban seats are in fact "suburbanish", and the Chandra Pasma gain of OW-N *almost* makes up for the loss of the Brampton seats; plus even 416 cases like Doly Begum and Tom Rakocevic.

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

Picking up inner-suburban seats like OWN, Scarborough SW and HRBC is all well and good, but I'm of course talking about the 905. The NDP has to pick up seats in Peel and Durham to win (I would write off York and Halton). The 1990 coalition is no longer feasible.

For those of you bringing up Jack Layton, remember he didn't do all that well in Toronto until 2011, and even then he didn't do that well province-wide compared to Andrea. But what Jack did bring to the table was a populist shtick even though he represented a downtown Toronto riding. Can Marit Stiles do that?
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2022, 11:17:47 AM »

Let's also keep in mind what the job description is here. This is not the federal NDP in 2003 sitting with 13 seats and on life support trying to find a new leader who will keep the party alive and find some space to the left of the Liberals.

This is also not the Ontario NDP in 1996 when it was a third party facing a viciously rightwing Harris government and marginalized by a Liberal official opposition that quickly became the default anti-PC party.

This is also not the Ontario NDP in 2010 when it had lost official party status in three straight elections and had just 10 seats and facing a majority OLP government...

The Ontario NDP is the official opposition for the second straight election and it isn't just OO by one or two seats and by some fluke. It has 31 seats while the Ontario Liberals have just 8 and have lost official party status for the second time in a row. Whoever the ONDP picks as leader is not some "hail Mary" choice of a tiny third party trying to find relevance. The ONDP is picking the leader of the opposition with a large caucus of 31 MPPs who will have to cement themselves as the Premier-in-waiting and as the one and only alternative to Doug Ford. 
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2022, 01:19:00 PM »

Let's also keep in mind what the job description is here. This is not the federal NDP in 2003 sitting with 13 seats and on life support trying to find a new leader who will keep the party alive and find some space to the left of the Liberals.

This is also not the Ontario NDP in 1996 when it was a third party facing a viciously rightwing Harris government and marginalized by a Liberal official opposition that quickly became the default anti-PC party.

This is also not the Ontario NDP in 2010 when it had lost official party status in three straight elections and had just 10 seats and facing a majority OLP government...

The Ontario NDP is the official opposition for the second straight election and it isn't just OO by one or two seats and by some fluke. It has 31 seats while the Ontario Liberals have just 8 and have lost official party status for the second time in a row. Whoever the ONDP picks as leader is not some "hail Mary" choice of a tiny third party trying to find relevance. The ONDP is picking the leader of the opposition with a large caucus of 31 MPPs who will have to cement themselves as the Premier-in-waiting and as the one and only alternative to Doug Ford. 

And as such, it's the first time the outgoing ONDP leader left the party in better shape than he/she found it than when Stephen Lewis made way for Michael Cassidy in the 1970s.

And say what you will, but that caucus of 31 proves how the '18 Andrea wave actually left the party with pretty good bones--maybe even more so than they grasped.

And finally, while winning seats is key to getting government, let's keep in mind that a preliminary matter is to express oneself as a valid voting choice, even in seats where it might not seem like they have a chance in blazes--a classic case federally being that of Jodie Primeau in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke in '21, who ran a powerhouse campaign and finished ahead of the Libs for 2nd (sure, it was 21% vs Cheryl Gallant's near-majority for the Cons--but imagine a province full of Jodie Primeaus, and you might see a lot of well-earned pickups and competitive runs where you might least expect them).
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,610
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2022, 01:28:15 PM »

Yeah, the critical thing is to try to appeal to as many ordinary people as possible and to avoid breaking the electorate into defined boxes each held to be somehow mutually incompatible with the others: if you do that you'll never win. You don't have to choose between Windsor and Waterloo or between Toronto and Thunder Bay: in fact the differences between all of these places will be functionally a lot less than they were thirty or even twenty years ago. Similar lifestyles, similar problems, even, these days, quite similar places of work on average, and where there are significant differences they generally aren't the sort that obviously contradict and oppose each other.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,602
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2022, 04:33:03 PM »

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.

Kamloops is a bad example, the North seat didn't even vote NDP in 1996 and the South one was a perfect bellweather until 2017 (which means it rarely voted NDP). I also think Kamloops itself voted NDP, but it's cracked in two seats.
Logged
The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2022, 09:20:41 PM »

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.

Kamloops is a bad example, the North seat didn't even vote NDP in 1996 and the South one was a perfect bellweather until 2017 (which means it rarely voted NDP). I also think Kamloops itself voted NDP, but it's cracked in two seats.

Sure, but in Kamloops-North Thompson for example, the Carole James NDP used to get just as many or more votes as the John Horgan NDP did in 2020 - even though 2020 was a much better election for the NDP. So it's not exactly an "NDP-turned-conservative" type of area, but the point is that the NDP did just as well in Kamloops in a 14-pt landslide (2020) as they did in 4-point losses (05, 09)
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2022, 10:08:58 PM »

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.

Kamloops is a bad example, the North seat didn't even vote NDP in 1996 and the South one was a perfect bellweather until 2017 (which means it rarely voted NDP). I also think Kamloops itself voted NDP, but it's cracked in two seats.

Sure, but in Kamloops-North Thompson for example, the Carole James NDP used to get just as many or more votes as the John Horgan NDP did in 2020 - even though 2020 was a much better election for the NDP. So it's not exactly an "NDP-turned-conservative" type of area, but the point is that the NDP did just as well in Kamloops in a 14-pt landslide (2020) as they did in 4-point losses (05, 09)

But while the generic shift may be a statistical fact, it still doesn't necessarily equate with "terminally out of reach"--it's more that Horgan's infrastructure had bigger fish to fry and opportunities to pursue  than to super-priority-push Kamloops back into the orange column.  Plus it may require other circumstances for an assist, whether candidacy or right-dissidence or subtle shifts in political climate.

So I'd advise being cautious with overwrought readings of the "heartland" shift to the right, even if there was an overwrought denial of the same this past election--and TBH the more strategically savvy approach would be to grasp *both* the rightward wave's potential *and* the leftward potential regardless, all as part of a multidimensional seeing-the-total-picture.  It's just like if Labour's looking to regain Bolsover or Sedgefield, they shouldn't be expecting to do so w/the 2/3-or-more-mandates that were common a generation or two ago.  *That's* delusional jumping-the-gun...
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 21, 2022, 02:53:49 AM »

Yeah, the critical thing is to try to appeal to as many ordinary people as possible and to avoid breaking the electorate into defined boxes each held to be somehow mutually incompatible with the others: if you do that you'll never win. You don't have to choose between Windsor and Waterloo or between Toronto and Thunder Bay: in fact the differences between all of these places will be functionally a lot less than they were thirty or even twenty years ago. Similar lifestyles, similar problems, even, these days, quite similar places of work on average, and where there are significant differences they generally aren't the sort that obviously contradict and oppose each other.

And even if it didn't have those negative consequences, targeting only one or two categories of seats would just be a confession that they don't expect to win (in which case you can kiss goodbye to the promiscuous progressive vote.) To gain a majority they need to gain seats in Toronto, in the 905, in the north and in small cities. Give up on any of those and you're giving up on winning.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 21, 2022, 08:42:59 AM »

It's also far from certain that Ford-style blue-collar Toryism is eternal--as always, there's the "What Would Peter Kormos Do?" question out there...

It's not "Ford-style blue-collar Toryism" that's the biggest threat to the NDP, because I think we often overestimate how much of this is about Ford, and underestimate how much of this is part of a broad trend. For whatever number of reasons and theories that people can speculate on, small-town populists are almost universally shifting right, and big-city professionals are almost universally shifting left.

One could look at the 2020 BC election where the NDP won the PV by 14%, a blowout which saw them win in "bourgeois" places like Vancouver-False Creek and 2/3 North Van ridings which used to be hardcore anti-NDP during our lifetimes, yet still unable to flip places like Kamloops and Skeena. I bring up this example instead of Trump/Brexit/whatever, because the BC Libs under Andrew Wilkinson were far from "Ford-style blue-collar Tories", and John Horgan isn't exactly a Rolex-wearing woke champagne socialist.

Kamloops is a bad example, the North seat didn't even vote NDP in 1996 and the South one was a perfect bellweather until 2017 (which means it rarely voted NDP). I also think Kamloops itself voted NDP, but it's cracked in two seats.

It's really easy to check these things now in ridingbuilder. Kamloops did not go NDP in 2020, they lost 44-38.
Logged
mileslunn
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,800
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2022, 12:18:43 PM »

I think until Liberals disappear completely, NDP winning is going to be very tough.  In Western Canada, you have more a two party system with NDP for progressives and BC Liberals/UCP/Saskatchewan Party/ Manitoba PCs for conservatives.  Whether Ontario goes that route or not too early to say, but realistically its only way I can see NDP winning on a regular basis.  NDP parties in Western Canada are progressive but somewhat more pragmatic thus why they can win upper middle class areas Ontario NDP flops in. 

In respect to blue collar areas, I don't think its where leader comes from as more those areas really turned off by woke/SJW stuff.  Otherwise focus on pocket book issues to help struggling families and people, not the latest social justice cause on university campuses.  Still long term I think your rural blue collar areas are long gone and not coming back but your more urban maybe aren't a lock like once were but still winnable. 

In UK, I think more urban types like Leigh, Birmingham-Northfield likely flip back and probably only go Conservative in landslides.  More rural ones like Basseltaw and Bishop Auckland probably usually go Tory, but Labour can win in good elections.  Lets remember even with rural areas, more densely populated they are less lopsided right wing victories are.  And rural UK has similar population densities to exurbs around GTA.  Its same reason while Tories dominate rural Ontario, they aren't by same massive margins you see in rural Prairies.

I would though go for a blue collar type still as I don't think winning suburbs in 905 belt is going to happen unless Liberals are completely wiped off the map and NDP becomes more centrist like in Western provinces.  Lets remember Horgan first time around didn't win most of the upper middle class suburbs in Lower Mainland thanks to NDP phobia.  It was only after forming government he did so maybe case NDP has to form government and show not too scary to win those. 

Bob Rae won many rural areas, but for all intensive purposes outside Atlantic Canada rural ridings by and large are gone for progressive parties as right wing vote usually close to or over 50% so only if you get a perfect split like in 90s and left perfectly united are they winnable. 

As for future of PCs, I think if Ford wins in 2026, his more populist but worker friendly style will be new norm.  However, no doubt some in base want more your slash and burn style like Poilievre has but not sure that will work in blue collar ridings.  Tim Hudak did horrible in many of the ones Ford gained.  Likewise BoJo in UK on fiscal side was far more of a big spender than David Cameron ever was.  I think blue collar areas are culturally conservative but fiscally still fairly centrist.  Maybe not your big tax and spend types, but still care deeply about social programs and not interested in big cuts there.

Polls in UK and US showed that most Tory and GOP voters opposed tax hikes on rich, but most red wall Tory voters and Obama-Trump supported them so I imagine same here in Canada, mind our top rates quite a bit higher than UK & US so less room to raise them (Ontario is 53.5%, UK 45%, US averages in low 40s).
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2022, 05:16:34 PM »

I think until Liberals disappear completely, NDP winning is going to be very tough. 

Let's not put the cart before the horse in putting all the eggs in the "winning" basket--that is, as in outright winning *government*--as opposed to optimizing one's performance so that victory of some kind or another, whether in the short or long term, is not an implausible pipe dream (and that includes your usual riding-by-riding mini-victories).

Or to paraphrase the posted link:  turn off the electoral GPS, it's bad for all of our brains ;-)
https://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2022/08/07/hitting-the-road-turn-off-the-gps-its-bad-for-your-brain.html
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2022, 09:48:38 PM »

It should (but clearly doesn't) go without saying that it's stupid to talk about "trends". This is Canada, the country with the most volatile politics in the anglophone world. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians will change their votes at the slightest provocation, or at no provocation at all. Imagine if when looking for a leader to replace Bob Rae the LPC decided to focus on "trends" instead of picking a leader who would be popular enough to win a lot of votes.

Last I checked, the places that voted for NDP candidates in 2022 were overwhelmingly poorer areas, which is inconvenient to people who want to talk about the unstoppable force of trends. Witness the way that people want so badly for Charlie Angus to have already lost that they ignore that he won his seat by eight points in 2021. They're so anxious to complain about how the NDP can't win because low-income voters don't vote NDP anymore that they're willing to do that regardless of the actual facts.

DL is correct in his assessment here. It's once again inconvenient to doomers that the OLP didn't immediately take its natural place as the party of government or whatever, but forming the official opposition in two consecutive parliaments means that the NDP needs to be taken seriously and needs to take itself seriously. They can't just give up and say that there's no point because the Liberals will surely take all their voters; that hasn't happened. It's important here to not fall into stupid traps like picking a token ethnic leader. (We hear all the time about the special tie that the Ford family has with immigrants, and as far as I know none of the Fords are visible minorities.)

The important thing now is to choose a leader who is credible enough to be taken seriously as a potential premier and who has the media abilities to be portrayed as the alternative to Doug Ford. Horwath was not bad in the sense of being serious, but after well over a decade it was clearly time for a change. Finding a leader with the right personal qualities is far more important than microtargeting individual demographics with the thought of either stopping trends or embracing them. The right leader will appeal to everyone and the right leader can be from anywhere. I don't know enough about Ontario to say who that might be, but it won't have much of anything to do with the riding they represent.
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2022, 06:43:30 AM »


Last I checked, the places that voted for NDP candidates in 2022 were overwhelmingly poorer areas, which is inconvenient to people who want to talk about the unstoppable force of trends. Witness the way that people want so badly for Charlie Angus to have already lost that they ignore that he won his seat by eight points in 2021. They're so anxious to complain about how the NDP can't win because low-income voters don't vote NDP anymore that they're willing to do that regardless of the actual facts.

Not really; aside from the issue of studentty sublets or cost-of-living-in-the-core factors, NDP-electing inner Toronto is scarcely "overwhelmingly poorer" these days.  Much of this is really more a matter of psychographics, as well as, unfortunately, the comfort zone of the NDP chattering class--i.e. not a matter of whether you're rich or poor, but whether you're a "certain kind" of rich or poor.  And Charlie Angus might have won his seat by 8 points, but it was w/only 35% vs a fortuitously split opposition so you can see how people can come to overstate trending (yet many of those same people remained adamant that Gilles Bisson would hang on provincially--though even *his* upset's likely overstated in what it augurs for Angus).
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,978
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2022, 08:36:36 AM »

While there is a bit of a correlation based on income, the NDP is able to win ridings with above average incomes. Ottawa Centre, University-Rosedale, Toronto-Danforth, St. Paul's, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Waterloo and London West are all above average. Apparently even Nickel Belt is above average in wealth.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2022, 09:21:16 AM »

While there is a bit of a correlation based on income, the NDP is able to win ridings with above average incomes. Ottawa Centre, University-Rosedale, Toronto-Danforth, St. Paul's, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Waterloo and London West are all above average. Apparently even Nickel Belt is above average in wealth.

These are all examples of seats filled with university educated professionals and throughout the western world (see the US for example), that is s demographic that is rapidly shifting left and rejecting rightwing populist conservatism. When the Liberals are very weak (e.g. Ontario 2018 and 2022), voters in those ridings are more than happy to vote NDP rather than Liberal - they don't see much difference between the two parties and they are just voting "anyone but Conservative". The old taboo about voting NDP among "better heeled folks" is a bit of a thing of the past now. Look at how the BC NDP wins some very upscale seats in Greater vancouver - and the Alberta NDP wins even the wealthiest seats in Edmonton   
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 11 queries.