Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)

[DL]

I'm not so sure about whether Catherine Fife will run if Marit Stiles is running (and she will run). Sounds like they might be fishing from the same pond and apparently they are close friends.

I like the IDEA of Wayne Gates more than I like Wayne Gates himself as a potential leader. He seems affable enough, but he strikes me as a bit of a buffoon and not the sharpest knife in the drawer. He is NOT the Ontario NDP's answer to John Fetterman! If I was looking for a leader who could shore up the small city blue collar segment, I'd sooner go for someone like Jamie West from Sudbury. But these geographic considerations don't always go according to plan. The one time the Ontario NDP won was with the urbane, sophisticated Bob Rae and by far the most popular federal leader the NDP ever had was the very urbane, sophisticated, bike riding Jack Layton! In contrast the bleakest period ever for the Ontario NDP was when they were led by a hockey-playing "man's man" from Fort Frances named Howard Hampton. Look at the NDP's results during the Hampton years in Windsor, hamilton, Niagara, the north - absolutely abysmal!

I'm a big fan of Marit Stiles. I think she is a great communicator and is very smart and strategic. Who cares if the riding she represents is in Toronto? You know who else represents a Toronto seat? Doug Ford! When Jack Layton ran to be federal leader of the NDP the big knock against him was that he was from downtown Toronto and that supposedly "everyone" hates Toronto blah blah blah. Does anyone seriously think the NDP would have been better off if they had picked Bill Blaikie instead of Jack Layton in 2003? I really don't care where the next leader's riding is located. I care about the presentation skills of the next leader. The fact that Marit has a background in the performing arts is a big plus. The best politicians are the ones who know how to act.

I am not at all fazed by the possibility that the OLP might pick Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as their next leader. All we know about him is that he is a "maverick" in the federal Liberal caucus who occasionally votes against the government and that gets him some attention. Beyond that, I'm not sure there is much there. There is a big difference between being an itinerant gadfly in Ottawa and actually leading a party. If the Ontario NDP could win 31 seats and sweep the old City of Toronto - including even St. Paul's while being led by a mediocrity like Andrea Horwath who was very unappealing to urbanites - imagine how much better the NDP could do with a leader who is actually poised and smart and strategic and a good communicator. Marit Stiles come on down!

[DL]

Let's also keep in mind what the job description is here. This is not the federal NDP in 2003 sitting with 13 seats and on life support trying to find a new leader who will keep the party alive and find some space to the left of the Liberals.

This is also not the Ontario NDP in 1996 when it was a third party facing a viciously rightwing Harris government and marginalized by a Liberal official opposition that quickly became the default anti-PC party.

This is also not the Ontario NDP in 2010 when it had lost official party status in three straight elections and had just 10 seats and facing a majority OLP government...

The Ontario NDP is the official opposition for the second straight election and it isn't just OO by one or two seats and by some fluke. It has 31 seats while the Ontario Liberals have just 8 and have lost official party status for the second time in a row. Whoever the ONDP picks as leader is not some "hail Mary" choice of a tiny third party trying to find relevance. The ONDP is picking the leader of the opposition with a large caucus of 31 MPPs who will have to cement themselves as the Premier-in-waiting and as the one and only alternative to Doug Ford. 

[DL]

While there is a bit of a correlation based on income, the NDP is able to win ridings with above average incomes. Ottawa Centre, University-Rosedale, Toronto-Danforth, St. Paul's, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, Waterloo and London West are all above average. Apparently even Nickel Belt is above average in wealth.

These are all examples of seats filled with university educated professionals and throughout the western world (see the US for example), that is s demographic that is rapidly shifting left and rejecting rightwing populist conservatism. When the Liberals are very weak (e.g. Ontario 2018 and 2022), voters in those ridings are more than happy to vote NDP rather than Liberal - they don't see much difference between the two parties and they are just voting "anyone but Conservative". The old taboo about voting NDP among "better heeled folks" is a bit of a thing of the past now. Look at how the BC NDP wins some very upscale seats in Greater vancouver - and the Alberta NDP wins even the wealthiest seats in Edmonton   

[DL]

Getting back to the Ontario NDP leadership, I hear rumours that Sudbury MPP Jamie West may throw his hat in the ring. He would be a good alternative to Marit Stiles - though both would make excellent leaders of the party! 

[DL]

Marit Stiles is the first person to announce her leadership candidacy. She's already been endorsed by Chandra Pasma, Kristyn Wong-Tam and Bhutila Karpoche.

She's most likely going to be the front runner as the establishment candidate. I hope we don't see a coronation like in BC.

She is also backed by Jessica Bell the MPP for University-Rosedale and likely many, many others.

I would not mind an actual coronation - as in no other candidate files by the early December deadline and Marit is declared the new leader in early December. That would give her three extra months to get to work. BC unfortunately is not actually an "acclamation". While some would debate whether Anjali Appathurai is a "serious" opponent to Eby or not - she is a nuisance who is trying to flood the party with instant new members and she is running a very nasty, negative campaign. 

[DL]

From everything I’ve heard leadership contests are highly overrated as a way for a party to raise money. To the extent that you get any mass signups is mostly people who lay the $5 for anyone “unwaged” and it never comes close to covering the cost of the staging the contest or all the money that is not raised because the party is navel gazing with a leadership contest ragent tnat acting line the official opposition

[DL]

I suspect Marit has already lined up support from many other MPPs but usually the strategy is to roll those out but by bit. She will likely get lots of labour support too, she was a union negotiator and leader before she got into politics and the teachers unions all love her from her time as education critic. She would have built a lot of ties to the major unions from her stint as national president of the NDP as well.

[DL]

Looks like it. I'm going to be releasing a poll this week that shows only Charlie Angus has a chance to beat her, but the chances of him running are next to nil.

Really too bad. I'm sure Marit is awesome at all, but not being given the chance to vote will put a bitter taste in my mouth to begin her leadership.

What? You got a hold of a list of Ontario NDP card carrying members and polled them on who they would vote for in a leadership contest? and how did you deal with 25% affiliated labour carve out? If its just a survey of the general public then its just a poll of name recognition and totally meaningless.

For all the talk of it somehow being bad for the Ontario NDP to acclaim Marit Stiles as its next leader, its worth pointing out that in recent Canadian political history there have been a few other NDP and other party leaders who were acclaimed - and in every case they were success stories! In 1987 Roy Romanow was acclaimed Saskatchewan NDP leader - he went in to win three straight elections. In 1970 Dave Barrett was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he won the 1972 election in a landslide. In 1989 Mike Harcourt was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he went on to win a majority in 1991.  In 2014 John Horgan was acclaimed BC NDP leader - he went on to win the next two BC elections. On the right side of the political spectrum it’s worth pointing out that Brad Wall was also originally acclaimed as leader of the Sask Party in 2006 and Danny Williams was acclaimed leader of the Newfoundland PCs in 2001 and each went on to win three elections.

Can anyone think of any example of a major party acclaiming a new leader and that person NOT winning the next election? The only one I can think of is Kevin Vickers of the New Brunswick Liberals

[DL]

You seem to really be spinning this as much as possible. It's not going to convince me to like it. It's not about outcomes anyway, it's about denying my chance to participate in the process.  There's already a perception the party doesn't listen to its grassroots. This isn't going to help that.

I heard through the grapevine that an MPP (who shall remain nameless for now) was actually calling around asking notable party members to sign his nomination papers etc... My friend asked this MPP why he was possibly running and the only answer he gave was "I think its important to have a contest". That seems pretty lame to me. It's like the guy is basically saying "I can't think of a single reason why I would make a better leader than Marit Stiles, but I'm running anyways just for the sake of having a contest". Seriously?

I don't want a contest just for the sake of a contest. If someone in the Ontario NDP really thinks that making Marit Stiles leader would be a huge mistake and wants to put forth a radically different offer - well then fine - let me get out the popcorn and see what I think of the dueling visions. But if its just some second rate backbencher from an adjacent riding who agrees with Marit on everything and is just running so that there has be a vote, my reaction is "you're just wasting everyone's time and money".

This contest is far, far, far too long. Andrea Horwath resigned on June 2nd. The party should have set a deadline two weeks later to enter the contest conditional on support from x number of caucus members and provincial caucus members and then the vote among members should have been set for early August. Instead we have to twiddle our thumbs with no leader for eight months. They have the right idea in the UK and Australia where party leaders are picked almost instantly with as short a campaign as possible

[DL]

Apparently Sol Mamakwa has also said he will not run.

There were rumours last week that Spadina-Fort York MPP Chris Glover would throw his hat in the ring - but I see no rationale whatsoever for his candidacy. He - like Marit Stiles - is a former school trustee in his 50s who represents a downtown Toronto riding and who seems ideologically middle of the road within the NDP. The only "unique selling proposition" he could offer would be "I'm exactly the same as Marit Stiles except that I'm a man and she's a woman". In other words he would be dead on arrival as a candidate.

As much as we political junkies like to have a contest, sometimes the absence of a contest is simply indicative of the fact that one candidate is far and away the best choice and everybody knows it.