Ontario ONDP Leadership (March 2023)

[mileslunn]

I think until Liberals disappear completely, NDP winning is going to be very tough.  In Western Canada, you have more a two party system with NDP for progressives and BC Liberals/UCP/Saskatchewan Party/ Manitoba PCs for conservatives.  Whether Ontario goes that route or not too early to say, but realistically its only way I can see NDP winning on a regular basis.  NDP parties in Western Canada are progressive but somewhat more pragmatic thus why they can win upper middle class areas Ontario NDP flops in. 

In respect to blue collar areas, I don't think its where leader comes from as more those areas really turned off by woke/SJW stuff.  Otherwise focus on pocket book issues to help struggling families and people, not the latest social justice cause on university campuses.  Still long term I think your rural blue collar areas are long gone and not coming back but your more urban maybe aren't a lock like once were but still winnable. 

In UK, I think more urban types like Leigh, Birmingham-Northfield likely flip back and probably only go Conservative in landslides.  More rural ones like Basseltaw and Bishop Auckland probably usually go Tory, but Labour can win in good elections.  Lets remember even with rural areas, more densely populated they are less lopsided right wing victories are.  And rural UK has similar population densities to exurbs around GTA.  Its same reason while Tories dominate rural Ontario, they aren't by same massive margins you see in rural Prairies.

I would though go for a blue collar type still as I don't think winning suburbs in 905 belt is going to happen unless Liberals are completely wiped off the map and NDP becomes more centrist like in Western provinces.  Lets remember Horgan first time around didn't win most of the upper middle class suburbs in Lower Mainland thanks to NDP phobia.  It was only after forming government he did so maybe case NDP has to form government and show not too scary to win those. 

Bob Rae won many rural areas, but for all intensive purposes outside Atlantic Canada rural ridings by and large are gone for progressive parties as right wing vote usually close to or over 50% so only if you get a perfect split like in 90s and left perfectly united are they winnable. 

As for future of PCs, I think if Ford wins in 2026, his more populist but worker friendly style will be new norm.  However, no doubt some in base want more your slash and burn style like Poilievre has but not sure that will work in blue collar ridings.  Tim Hudak did horrible in many of the ones Ford gained.  Likewise BoJo in UK on fiscal side was far more of a big spender than David Cameron ever was.  I think blue collar areas are culturally conservative but fiscally still fairly centrist.  Maybe not your big tax and spend types, but still care deeply about social programs and not interested in big cuts there.

Polls in UK and US showed that most Tory and GOP voters opposed tax hikes on rich, but most red wall Tory voters and Obama-Trump supported them so I imagine same here in Canada, mind our top rates quite a bit higher than UK & US so less room to raise them (Ontario is 53.5%, UK 45%, US averages in low 40s).