Trump's single biggest mistake in the 2020 campaign

[Sir Mohamed]

What do you consider Trump's single biggest mistake during the 2020 campaign? I didn't include "refuse to concede" because that was after the election (although he did stoke doubt in the system before, so I included that).

Other than SCOTUS and Pence, all of them heavily contributed to his loss, imho, though it's his disastrous handling of Covid, imho. That said, I still don't think his reelection would have been assured without the pandemic.

I'll create another poll about Biden's campaign, too.

[Podgy the Bear]

Handling of the COVID pandemic. 

Going into 2020, he was in a reasonable position to win re-election.  The Democratic primary season was looking to be a mess.

And when COVID hit, he had the opportunity to acknowledge the crisis that it was/remains, and he could have created the "rally around the flag" effect.  But he didn't do that, and the perception of his handling of COVID (along with the coalescing of the Democrats behind Biden) put Trump in a deficit position that lasted throughout the election campaign.

[Mr.Phips]

Laughing off COVID. 

[dw93]

Handling of the COVID pandemic. 

Going into 2020, he was in a reasonable position to win re-election.  The Democratic primary season was looking to be a mess.

And when COVID hit, he had the opportunity to acknowledge the crisis that it was/remains, and he could have created the "rally around the flag" effect.  But he didn't do that, and the perception of his handling of COVID (along with the coalescing of the Democrats behind Biden) put Trump in a deficit position that lasted throughout the election campaign.

This. Not running a delusional, train wreck of a campaign as a whole might've also made the difference given how close it was.

[BG-NY]

Top 3 biggest mistakes:

(1) Not forcing McConnell to pass a second stimulus prior to EDay.
(2) Triaging Michigan early and coming back late.
(3) Having the ACB ceremony -- catching Covid and not being able to sweep 3/3 debates killed him.

[Skill and Chance]

Handling of the COVID pandemic. 

Going into 2020, he was in a reasonable position to win re-election.  The Democratic primary season was looking to be a mess.

And when COVID hit, he had the opportunity to acknowledge the crisis that it was/remains, and he could have created the "rally around the flag" effect.  But he didn't do that, and the perception of his handling of COVID (along with the coalescing of the Democrats behind Biden) put Trump in a deficit position that lasted throughout the election campaign.

This is a situation where history really was contingent on an individual personality.  Most Republicans should have been primed to react aggressively to COVID given their elderly base, hawkish views on China, preference for closed borders, and general distrust of international institutions.  The fact that Trump spent his whole life in show business prompted him to sympathize most with the closed businesses and laid off hospitality workers take the libertarian position even though it was counterintuitive.   If the Republican president was a doctor, this pretty clearly would have gone the other way.

[ModerateRadical]

This is a situation where history really was contingent on an individual personality.  Most Republicans should have been primed to react aggressively to COVID given their elderly base, hawkish views on China, preference for closed borders, and general distrust of international institutions.  The fact that Trump spent his whole life in show business prompted him to sympathize most with the closed businesses and laid off hospitality workers take the libertarian position even though it was counterintuitive.   If the Republican president was a doctor, this pretty clearly would have gone the other way.

I don't think it was his background that made him sympathize; he seemed to be taking it seriously until the stock market tanked, and affluent small business owners started taking guns to state capitals to demand everything open back up again. He put all his eggs into one basket ("jobs, jobs, jobs"), and pretty visibly panicked, throwing consensus out the window to egg on the people demanding everything open back up immediately after 1 week.

[Mr. Smith]

COVID Handling.

[BaldEagle1991]

COVID handling. Back in 2020, we had no vaccines, no pills, not much anything to treat or prevent it with. People lost their jobs. People's lives pleasures like sports, concerts, and parades were canceled. People who have international connections (e.g. business outside the US, family outside the US) could not travel. Schools were shut or moved virtually and it wasn't the same. People with elderly or immuno-compromised relatives could not visit them.

Yet you had a POTUS that pretty much gambled this and fumbled by taking the least aggressive response to a pandemic. People wanted to be back together and humans are by nature social creatures.

So yes this was pretty much that did him in.

[xavier110]

COVID reinforced some people’s perceptions that he was risky and unsteady, something they were willing to overlook for a change when he faced Hillary. It really did him in. If he had approached it better, he would have easily won the election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He would have won without COVID.

[Vice President Christian Man]

1, Stocking doubt
2. Covid handling
3. Poor messaging

[°Leprechaun]

Other...
Refusing to promise to accept the election results.

[Pericles]

Other...
Refusing to promise to accept the election results.

I doubt that lost him many votes and afterwards it may be helping him get renominated compared to if he gracefully conceded because then the base could think of him as a loser.

[DPKdebator]

Trump's issue with COVID was less how he handled it (most of that happened on a state level) and more that he lost control of the media narrative, and it seemed to many people that he had lost control.

[UncleSam]

Inconsistent messaging on COVID.

[Earthling]

Trump's issue with COVID was less how he handled it (most of that happened on a state level) and more that he lost control of the media narrative, and it seemed to many people that he had lost control.

He could have taken the lead and come out as the leader he presents himself to be.
If he had taken responsibility he would have won. In almost all other countries the incumbent governments/leaders had their poll-numbers shoot upwards after Covid hit. Because they were in charge of the situation. Donald Trump never was.

[Pericles]

He also was naturally unsuited to looking reassuring in a crisis, his polls began to turn in his press briefings when he was insulting reporters and suggesting that people inject bleach. People realised that having a President who was just unfit to do the job was a serious problem.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Being too aggressive in the first debate. Trump somehow managed to miss an open goal by repeatedly interrupting and talking over a barely coherent Biden, which turned the debate into a scrambled mess. He could have dialled the aggression down slightly and let Biden repeatedly gaffe and the debate could have been a campaign-ending rout. Honestly one of the most astonishing US election moments I've witnessed.

[sting in the rafters]

COVID was a golden opportunity for Trump to consolidate his support among independents leading into the election and he completely and utterly botched it in every way imaginable. If he had so much as followed through on the recommendation to send masks to every household and kept his mouth shut, he probably would've won by a narrow margin. Then again, him keeping his mouth shut is too out of character.

Biden would've beaten Trump in '16 by more than in 2020. I think a lot of posters underestimate how Trump crystallized and even expanded his base during his reign and had a strong chance of winning a second term pre-COVID. This article makes a strong point regarding Trump's incumbent advantage.

The president had built an enormous political infrastructure and was raking in hundreds of millions of dollars. That month, Trump’s campaign conducted a $1.1 million polling project showing him leading prospective Democratic challengers even in blue states such as Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I agree with Pericles.

There is something I call the Commander in Chief test, used to be referred to as the red phone ("Red phone is ringing in the White House, who do you want answering it?"). In this context, Covid was the red phone and Trump's erratic statements failed to project the kind of stable leadership you want in a crisis situation.

[Person Man]

Handling of the COVID pandemic. 

Going into 2020, he was in a reasonable position to win re-election.  The Democratic primary season was looking to be a mess.

And when COVID hit, he had the opportunity to acknowledge the crisis that it was/remains, and he could have created the "rally around the flag" effect.  But he didn't do that, and the perception of his handling of COVID (along with the coalescing of the Democrats behind Biden) put Trump in a deficit position that lasted throughout the election campaign.

This is a situation where history really was contingent on an individual personality.  Most Republicans should have been primed to react aggressively to COVID given their elderly base, hawkish views on China, preference for closed borders, and general distrust of international institutions.  The fact that Trump spent his whole life in show business prompted him to sympathize most with the closed businesses and laid off hospitality workers take the libertarian position even though it was counterintuitive.   If the Republican president was a doctor, this pretty clearly would have gone the other way.

I could see him thinking that the Service Industry was going to buoy him to victory. However, it wasn't enough in Nevada or Arizona and Florida wasn't enough.

[US Politics Fanatic]

He didn't do enough to contain riots. Some voters blamed him for that. Even H.W. Bush sent the national guard in LA in 1992.

[dw93]

He didn't do enough to contain riots. Some voters blamed him for that. Even H.W. Bush sent the national guard in LA in 1992.

Honestly I think the Democrats got more heat for the riots than Trump as the Democratic governors and mayors did nothing to deal with them. Had they done so, the party would've fared better in down ticket races and Biden might've been able to flip at least North Carolina and possibly Florida.

[US Politics Fanatic]

He didn't do enough to contain riots. Some voters blamed him for that. Even H.W. Bush sent the national guard in LA in 1992.

Honestly I think the Democrats got more heat for the riots than Trump as the Democratic governors and mayors did nothing to deal with them. Had they done so, the party would've fared better in down ticket races and Biden might've been able to flip at least North Carolina and possibly Florida.

Maybe. What strucked me at the time is that in the month of May Trump seemed poised for winning re-election and then just a few days after the death of George Floyd, Trump's approval rating and his winning odds dipped.