When will Texas turn blue

[BigVic]

Blexas won’t happen until the mid 2030s

[MABA 2020]

Conceivably 2028 under a big Democratic victory, don't think thats very likely though

[Pericles]

It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.

[GenerationTerrorist]

I have a weird feeling that it will go Democratic in 2024, but this will be countered by PA/MN/WI going Republican.

[Xing]

It’s not completely out of the question in 2024, but Democrats would need a decent turnaround for that to happen. I would guess 2028 or 2032. If we’re talking about Senate races, I think it’s quite likely Democrats would win a Senate race there in 2030 if it’s a Republican midterm.

[Agonized-Statism]

Conceivably 2028 under a big Democratic victory, don't think thats very likely though

This is where I'm leaning. My current thinking is that 2028 will probably be the fallout of a second Trump administration with a more articulate and inspiring Democrat like Ruben Gallego at the helm, so it would almost be a fluke. But absent that, Texas becomes a swing state- never totally blue, Republicans would probably change their platform before conceding that many electoral votes- later on in the 2030s.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.

GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.


Here:


https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437

Cobb County :

2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%

Forsyth County:

2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%

Gwinnett County:

2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%

Henry County:

2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%

[S019]

I’ll say 2028

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.

GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.


Here:


https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437
Cobb County :

2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%

Forsyth County:

2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%

Gwinnett County:

2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%

Henry County:

2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%

Are Asians counted as "Other/Unknown" here? Because Forsyth County has a sizable Asian population, attracted in part due to the perceived quality of the area's public schools.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It is only slightly to the right of where Georgia was in 2016, and Democrats still have a lot of room to gain and more than Republicans. 2024 could be winnable, especially with something like a 2008-style victory, not that there is an easy path to that right now. Otherwise, 2028 would be realistic, though my guess is that election would be a Republican victory because either Republicans would only have had one term or have the classic opposition party advantage after two Democratic terms.

GA was +7 R in 2016 while TX is +10 R in 2020, and also the shifts in GA vs Texas are very different.


Here:


https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437
Cobb County :

2012: Romney 55.25%
2020: Trump 42.02%

Forsyth County:

2012: Romney 80.47%
2020: Trump 65.83%

Gwinnett County:

2012: Romney 53.76%
2020: Trump 40.16%

Henry County:

2012: Romney 51.1%
2020: Trump 39.24%

Are Asians counted as "Other/Unknown" here? Because Forsyth County has a sizable Asian population, attracted in part due to the perceived quality of the area's public schools.

Not sure but the point is a huge reason GA is flipping is due to "reverse Great migration" while Hispanic voters in Texas are moving right not left so demographic changes dont help Democrats in TX like GA as much

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1388453436648210437

-snip-

Are Asians counted as "Other/Unknown" here? Because Forsyth County has a sizable Asian population, attracted in part due to the perceived quality of the area's public schools.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwinnett_County,_Georgia#Demographics

Per Wikipedia, Gwinnett County was ~32.5% NHW, 27% Black, 13% Asian, 23% Latino, and 4.5% everything else in the 2020 census. The split in that chart is 40% White + 50% Nonwhite + 10% Other.

To answer the OP: I don't think TX will ever become a reliably D state, but I can definitely see it voting for a Dem presidential nominee in 2028.

[TDAS04]

I'm guessing 2032.

[Tekken_Guy]

Conceivably 2028 under a big Democratic victory, don't think thats very likely though

This is where I'm leaning. My current thinking is that 2028 will probably be the fallout of a second Trump administration with a more articulate and inspiring Democrat like Ruben Gallego at the helm, so it would almost be a fluke. But absent that, Texas becomes a swing state- never totally blue, Republicans would probably change their platform before conceding that many electoral votes- later on in the 2030s.

I believe DeSantis will be president in 2028 and easily hold onto Texas in his re-election bid.

[dw93]

2028 is plausible only if a Republican wins 2024 and completely sh*ts the bed for four years. Otherwise, 2032 or 2036 is more likely.

[Person Man]

2028 is plausible only if a Republican wins 2024 and completely sh*ts the bed for four years. Otherwise, 2032 or 2036 is more likely.

This. I can see Texas being the Colorado of the early 2000s, the state that Democrats target and keep losing, but eventually something gives.

[Skill and Chance]

2028 is plausible only if a Republican wins 2024 and completely sh*ts the bed for four years. Otherwise, 2032 or 2036 is more likely.

This. I can see Texas being the Colorado of the early 2000s, the state that Democrats target and keep losing, but eventually something gives.

Colorado's a totally different beast.  Dems won  the governorship every time from 1974 to 1994 and they managed to take a one-seat majority in the state senate in the 2000 election, which deadlocked redistricting and set them up really well for the late 2000's Dem waves.

[TwinGeeks99]

I'd have to say by 2032 at the maximum, although 2028 is very possible if the trends keep going in the Democrats' favor. 2024 though isn't completely out of the question if there is a perfect storm however.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Anyway I don’t think Texas will turn blue but I sort of think it will be where FL was from 96-16 where it’s a Republican tilting battleground state but democrats win it in good years for them .

[Skill and Chance]

Anyway I don’t think Texas will turn blue but I sort of think it will be where FL was from 96-16 where it’s a Republican tilting battleground state but democrats win it in good years for them .

I could see this.  I think it will consistently disappoint statewide, but Dems have an EC style natural advantage in the legislature.  They are likely going to control the lower house in any election  where the average statewide Republican margin falls below 4ish.  That makes it categorically different from Florida 1996-2016 because at some point Dems would have a say in the state government.

[Person Man]

Anyway I don’t think Texas will turn blue but I sort of think it will be where FL was from 96-16 where it’s a Republican tilting battleground state but democrats win it in good years for them .

I could see this.  I think it will consistently disappoint statewide, but Dems have an EC style natural advantage in the legislature.  They are likely going to control the lower house in any election  where the average statewide Republican margin falls below 4ish.  That makes it categorically different from Florida 1996-2016 because at some point Dems would have a say in the state government.

They probably do take at least some of the legislature as soon as we have a Republican midterm.
So maybe instead of a state that is Tilt R at the top and Likely R at the bottom, it can be more Tilt R to the bottom. Maybe a better example would be a Republican version of Minnesota or North Carolina.

[MarkD]

Texas won't turn blue for at least 20 years. The next stage in its development is to turn purple, and it will stay that way for the next 20 years. Purple as in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI.

[Spectator]

Texas won't turn blue for at least 20 years. The next stage in its development is to turn purple, and it will stay that way for the next 20 years. Purple as in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI.

Texas is closer now than Arizona and Georgia were at the start of the 2010 decade. It’s only a matter of time, provided Democrats actually try. 95% of the growth happening in Texas is in blue counties or counties that are zooming left like Collin County and Denton County. I think the writing is on the wall.

[Skill and Chance]

TBH I'm not sure it ever will.  It has tightened, but it's not that close to the national median yet and Republicans seem to be doing a fine job "backfilling" their lost voters through attracting conservatives from other states and the Hispanic working class trend.  It's gotten close enough that Dems should eventually win the lower house of the legislature on the geographic bias, and perhaps a couple statewide offices in wave years, but that looks like their ceiling for now.

[Person Man]

TBH I'm not sure it ever will.  It has tightened, but it's not that close to the national median yet and Republicans seem to be doing a fine job "backfilling" their lost voters through attracting conservatives from other states and the Hispanic working class trend.  It's gotten close enough that Dems should eventually win the lower house of the legislature on the geographic bias, and perhaps a couple statewide offices in wave years, but that looks like their ceiling for now.

You mean the Democrats will come back some, but not enough to change the policy of that state. To me, Texas adopting reasonable or even realistic policies is more important than the state being won by a D President. It’s simply too dangerous to live there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Texas won't turn blue for at least 20 years. The next stage in its development is to turn purple, and it will stay that way for the next 20 years. Purple as in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI.

Texas is closer now than Arizona and Georgia were at the start of the 2010 decade. It’s only a matter of time, provided Democrats actually try. 95% of the growth happening in Texas is in blue counties or counties that are zooming left like Collin County and Denton County. I think the writing is on the wall.

Look at my tweet and you will see why the GA comparison isnt really accurate. Also another thing too keep in mind for TX/AZ is much of the trend since 2012 happened in 2016 and has slowed down significantly since then

TX in 2012 voted 20 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2016 voted 11 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
TX in 2020 voted 10 points more Republican than the nation as a whole

AZ in 2012 voted 13 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2016 voted 5.5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole
AZ in 2020 voted 4 points more Republican than the nation as a whole


The 2016 election is when a huge amount of college educated whites trended hard to the Democrats due to the Trump nomination but as you can see most of the trends happened from 12 to 16. So unless you expect another election which semi realigns the coalitions, then TX isn't really a good comparison to early 2010s AZ here.  Also something people miss about TX is it is not the rural areas that really is keeping the state Republican but the exurban areas and those areas are growing a good deal too.