GA-SEN (AARP): Warnock +3

[wbrocks67]

July 5-11

Warnock (D) 50%
Walker (R) 47%

Favorabilities:
Warnock: 47/47 (=)
Walker: 41/49 (-8)

Warnock approval: 45/46 (-1)

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/22087157-aarp-2022-state-survey

[Skill and Chance]

Polling continues to show major Kemp/Walker divergence.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great poll

[SnowLabrador]

This poll may be a bit favorable to Warnock. The sample is Biden +2, when we all know that Biden only won Georgia by about one-fourth of one percent. This is definitely going to a runoff.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This poll may be a bit favorable to Warnock. The sample is Biden +2, when we all know that Biden only won Georgia by about one-fourth of one percent. This is definitely going to a runoff.

Yeah, a runoff in which Warnock is likely favored!

[Skill and Chance]

This poll may be a bit favorable to Warnock. The sample is Biden +2, when we all know that Biden only won Georgia by about one-fourth of one percent. This is definitely going to a runoff.

Yeah, a runoff in which Warnock is likely favored!

Given 2020-21, I would say this depends on whether senate control is already known.  If Republicans have already flipped the chamber, I would expect Warnock to be clearly favored. 

[ajc0918]

Warnock-mentum!

[Devils30]

An R+3 GCB in Georgia suggests a tied GCB nationally. GA was R+4 relative to the popular vote in 2020 and maybe give it a 1% Dem trend for the 2 years between elections.

Georgia's ultra-low elasticity helped Republicans in 2018, perhaps it helps Dems going forward.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very plausible topline in both races.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

An R+3 GCB in Georgia suggests a tied GCB nationally. GA was R+4 relative to the popular vote in 2020 and maybe give it a 1% Dem trend for the 2 years between elections.

Georgia's ultra-low elasticity helped Republicans in 2018, perhaps it helps Dems going forward.

It almost certainly will, unless the state's extremely consistent pro-Dem trend just stops for some reason (and the state has a history of being driven by demographic shifts of particularly solid voters).

[Horus]

Warnock will win and Abrams will lose.

[President Johnson]

Tilt Democratic.

The question is just how much Warnock outruns Abrams at this point. If Warnock really wins this one and my more than last time, he'll definitely be floated as future presidential/vice presidential material.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt Democratic.

The question is just how much Warnock outruns Abrams at this point. If Warnock really wins this one and my more than last time, he'll definitely be floated as future presidential/vice presidential material.

The gubernatorial is Tossup with slight Abrams advantage if I had to guess, and the Senate race is Tilt D. Both are winnable for Rs but the chances they have to overcome the state's demographics is likely to get worse and worse over time.

[President Johnson]

Tilt Democratic.

The question is just how much Warnock outruns Abrams at this point. If Warnock really wins this one and my more than last time, he'll definitely be floated as future presidential/vice presidential material.

The gubernatorial is Tossup with slight Abrams advantage if I had to guess, and the Senate race is Tilt D. Both are winnable for Rs but the chances they have to overcome the state's demographics is likely to get worse and worse over time.

I'd rate the gubernatorial election as Lean Republican. I think Kemp is going to win by four or five points.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Good poll for Walker honestly given how bad of a candidate he appears to be. This continues to look like tilt Warnock and strong lean Kemp. The best he can hope for is staying within the margin of error and have a pure distrust of democrats carry him across the finish line. It would also help if black turnout is slightly low, which is possible given that Warnock/Abrams are turning out to be that inspiring, along with Walker himself being black and Kemp not being a boogeyman.

I don’t think Kemp can carry Walker on his coattails because his voters are the ones already answering the polls. He doesn’t have a huge hidden vote that will turn out and also vote Walker

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tilt Democratic.

The question is just how much Warnock outruns Abrams at this point. If Warnock really wins this one and my more than last time, he'll definitely be floated as future presidential/vice presidential material.

The gubernatorial is Tossup with slight Abrams advantage if I had to guess, and the Senate race is Tilt D. Both are winnable for Rs but the chances they have to overcome the state's demographics is likely to get worse and worse over time.

I'd rate the gubernatorial election as Lean Republican. I think Kemp is going to win by four or five points.

Four or five point win for Kemp sounds hard in a state with such an iron-clad D base, but we shall see in November. It's unclear how much this seeming weakness of the Abrams position will actually matter come Election Day. I'm not very confident either way about it.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good poll for Warnock again, reinforces his status as slight favorite.

While a Kemp/Warnock outcome is the most likely as of today, I expect the margins to slightly narrow as we get closer to the election unless the overall dynamics change here. I just struggle to imagine these races being 10 pts. apart. Something like Kemp +4 vs. Warnock +1 as final result is far more plausible, imho.