AZ-GOV (Target Smart/Research AZ): Hobbs +9, +5

[wbrocks67]

Hobbs (D) 47%
Lake (R) 38%

Hobbs (D) 44%
Robson (R) 39%

Target Smart / Research AZ
704 LV, 6/28-30
https://targetsmart.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/TSPolling_AZSW_Gov-Memo_2022.07.05.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hobbs is gonna be Gov

[Matty]

I want to ing scream at these polls with 15%+ undecided

It’s infuriating

We know for an absolute fact that both candidates in Arizona will get more than 45%, so what the hell is the point of releasing this?

[SnowLabrador]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

[wesmoorenerd]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

Log off. Shut down your computer. Go outside. Take a walk around your neighborhood. Don't forget to stay logged out! Go get a nice meal. Look into career advancement opportunities. Volunteer for the elderly. Try out for a game show. Remember: stay logged out. Check out a local cultural festival. Catch a minor league baseball game. Take a cooking class. Watch some old classic movies. Whatever you do, don't reopen Atlas. Talk to that cute Starbucks barista. Start a relationship. Get married, buy a nice house in the suburbs, have kids. Reach the pinnacle of your career. Travel the world in your old age. As you lie on your deathbed, surrounded by your loved ones, please continue to not open talkelections.org. Pass into nothingness, having resisted the urge to return to this website and continue spreading this inane nonsense.

I recommend you start this plan immediately.

[Politician]

lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

lol

Your R nut map will never happen even 538 has given D's an even chance in the Senate Rs will never get 54 Senate seats and 250H seats

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

I'm an optimist, but I'm also a realist. I agree that Hobbs will get 47%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm an optimist, but I'm also a realist. I agree that Hobbs will get 47%.

Lol, and Lake like Vance is gonna get 30%

Bidej won Maricopa CTY, it's not unlikely we win this race

[Person Man]

I mean, it’s a pattern.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You cannot convince me she's actually ahead of Robson, but it's obvious that those Maricopa county college ed voters are not going to go back to the republicans just because the republican isn't a trumpist hack

[President Johnson]

Well, the 47% may end up being correct.

I think Hobbs has definitely a chance, though I'd rate this as Lean Republican until we see more polls, get closer to election day and Hobbs being at 49-50%.

[GALeftist]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

I mean this in the nicest way possible, and you are certainly not the only offender in this regard, but why even engage with these polls if your electoral predictions are more religious than scientific? This poll could say anything from Lake+10 to Hobbs+50 and I doubt it'd change your outlook much. That's fine, I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, but why engage with the polling if it's meaningless to you?

[SnowLabrador]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

I mean this in the nicest way possible, and you are certainly not the only offender in this regard, but why even engage with these polls if your electoral predictions are more religious than scientific? This poll could say anything from Lake+10 to Hobbs+50 and I doubt it'd change your outlook much. That's fine, I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, but why engage with the polling if it's meaningless to you?

Give me one good reason I should believe this poll. Four cycles in a row they've underestimated the GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

I mean this in the nicest way possible, and you are certainly not the only offender in this regard, but why even engage with these polls if your electoral predictions are more religious than scientific? This poll could say anything from Lake+10 to Hobbs+50 and I doubt it'd change your outlook much. That's fine, I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, but why engage with the polling if it's meaningless to you?

Give me one good reason I should believe this poll. Four cycles in a row they've underestimated the GOP.

Ducey was a Maverick and Lake supports insurrection she said she won't certify of Biden wins AZ Ducey was censored for certifying Biden and Kelly that's why Lake is not a Maverick


Ducey is a Maverick and won overwhelming he is friends with Cindy MCCain

Just like Mastriano said he won't certify and Craig whom is off the ballot said he won't certify BIDEN

[GALeftist]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

I mean this in the nicest way possible, and you are certainly not the only offender in this regard, but why even engage with these polls if your electoral predictions are more religious than scientific? This poll could say anything from Lake+10 to Hobbs+50 and I doubt it'd change your outlook much. That's fine, I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, but why engage with the polling if it's meaningless to you?

Give me one good reason I should believe this poll. Four cycles in a row they've underestimated the GOP.

I'm not asking you to believe it; God knows I don't think Hobbs is going to win by 9 or 5, or even that she's favored. My only point is that it seems odd to me from your perspective to even bother with these polls, because you seem to axiomatically believe them to be seriously flawed and therefore not worth the time of day. Like I said, I don't think Hobbs is favored, but polls with her pretty close to 50 as a non-incumbent do make me think she has a shot and factor into my analysis as one of many things helping to illuminate the state of the race. In your case, it seems that polls are completely meaningless to you, so why bother with them at all?

[wbrocks67]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

I mean this in the nicest way possible, and you are certainly not the only offender in this regard, but why even engage with these polls if your electoral predictions are more religious than scientific? This poll could say anything from Lake+10 to Hobbs+50 and I doubt it'd change your outlook much. That's fine, I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, but why engage with the polling if it's meaningless to you?

Give me one good reason I should believe this poll. Four cycles in a row they've underestimated the GOP.

Arizona polling averages have not been too bad. They nailed the 2020 president average and also got Kelly's vote share nearly correct that year too.

Meanwhile Sinema outdid the polling in 2018, so you're wrong in what you're saying anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look at the compiled map they think AZ is a Lean R state no it's not

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not happening. This race is Likely R, Hobbs will run behind Kelly (who's already an underdog.)

I mean this in the nicest way possible, and you are certainly not the only offender in this regard, but why even engage with these polls if your electoral predictions are more religious than scientific? This poll could say anything from Lake+10 to Hobbs+50 and I doubt it'd change your outlook much. That's fine, I'm not going to try to talk you out of it, but why engage with the polling if it's meaningless to you?

Give me one good reason I should believe this poll. Four cycles in a row they've underestimated the GOP.

Arizona polling averages have not been too bad. They nailed the 2020 president average and also got Kelly's vote share nearly correct that year too.

Meanwhile Sinema outdid the polling in 2018, so you're wrong in what you're saying anyway.

You must understand that by all appearances, SnowLabrador thinks every poll is bad for Democrats: if it shows the Republican up, it means the Democrat is in trouble; if it shows the Democrat up, it means the poll is flawed (or polls in general are flawed). 

I don't know why he bothers to follow polls either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Some users think that certain states belong to Rs as I said the compiled prediction shows what  users thinking

[Skill and Chance]

I mean, Lake really could lose. 

[Sir Mohamed]

I mean, Lake really could lose. 

Yup, though it seems like her prospects of being nominated are dwindling?

Still think this race is Lean R due to fundamentals, especially since it's still plenty of time and Hobbs is not at 50%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean, Lake really could lose. 

Yup, though it seems like her prospects of being nominated are dwindling?

Still think this race is Lean R due to fundamentals, especially since it's still plenty of time and Hobbs is not at 50%.

Neither is Lake at 50% did you know Christie in 2009 was polling under 50% and won against Corzine he was polling 49/44%

[TodayJunior]

If Delta 8 or 9 is legal in your state/county, I highly recommend you take some to take the edge off. It’s Friday.