FL-SEN (Momentive AI / Center Street PAC): Rubio +5 (RV), +8 (LV)

[wbrocks67]

RV:
Rubio (R) 45
Demings (D) 40

LV:
Rubio (R) 50
Demings (D) 42

Favorabilities:
Demings: 42/26 (with 32% neutral)
Rubio: 46/37 (with 17% neutral)

https://centerstreetpac.com/poll-rubio-leads-45-to-40-50-to-42-among-lv-but-demings-makes-major-gains/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still early

[Person Man]

This continues to paint a picture of this national election being competitive instead of a walk in the park for Republicans. Maybe in September or October, the Democratic Party campaign will collapse but not now.

[Unelectable Bystander]

This continues to paint a picture of this national election being competitive instead of a walk in the park for Republicans. Maybe in September or October, the Democratic Party campaign will collapse but not now.

Because Rubio is only winning by 8 in Florida? He’s a good candidate but it’s still a state with a good number of liberals and he’s running against a fine candidate. He can’t win by 25 lol

[wbrocks67]

This continues to paint a picture of this national election being competitive instead of a walk in the park for Republicans. Maybe in September or October, the Democratic Party campaign will collapse but not now.

Because Rubio is only winning by 8 in Florida? He’s a good candidate but it’s still a state with a good number of liberals and he’s running against a fine candidate. He can’t win by 25 lol

I mean, he won by 8 and outpaced Trump by 7 that year, so him only up by 5-8 in what should be a great year for Rs, and compared to FL getting redder, is meh. Or maybe people just overrate him as a candidate.

[Person Man]

This continues to paint a picture of this national election being competitive instead of a walk in the park for Republicans. Maybe in September or October, the Democratic Party campaign will collapse but not now.

Because Rubio is only winning by 8 in Florida? He’s a good candidate but it’s still a state with a good number of liberals and he’s running against a fine candidate. He can’t win by 25 lol

I mean, he won by 8 and outpaced Trump by 7 that year, so him only up by 5-8 in what should be a great year for Rs, and compared to FL getting redder, is meh. Or maybe people just overrate him as a candidate.

If it is a 8 point race, that would indicate the parties are running even nationally. That would probably be enough for Republicans to flip the margins and thus win but be vulnerable in 2024 in ways that past oppositional Houses haven’t historically been.

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, that was never going to happen. Safe R.

[NewYorkExpress]

Five to Eight points probably could be the final margin.

I just don't see a ton of enthusiasm for Rubio among the base (at least outside of Miami-he'll win there) compared to DeSantis.

Frankly, Rubio's lucky Biden won in 2020. Had this been an election with Trump as the incumbent, Rubio might well be behind by 5-8 points right now.

[Unelectable Bystander]

I’m not sure who to reply to because a lot of these takes are questionable.

1. It’s not a range of 5-8, it’s two different outcomes with a distinction. The fact that likely voters are more Rubio-friendly is itself indicative of the GOP-friendly environment.

2. Not all states are going to shift the exact same way. There’s a good argument to be made that a lot of GOP gains will be disproportionately in places like Oregon, for example, more than a state entirely under GOP control.

3. Comparing one senator’s performance from 6 years ago to now is a terrible metric for measuring “swing”. Senate races have way more volatility than something like a generic congressional vote.

4. Despite winning by 8 in 2016, Rubio only received 52% of the vote. If he’s truly at 50% now, all he needs is 3% out of the remaining 8 to easily clear his (legendary) 2016 performance. In other words, this isn’t even evidence that he hasn’t gained ground.

5. Again, there is a Republican ceiling in Florida. Rubio got mid 40’s in M-D, carried Pinellas and Hillsborough, and carried Duval with 56%(!!) of the vote. At some point, you run out of new voters to attract. He isn’t going to win like 75% of the independent vote.

6. Ticket-splitting (something Rubio was clearly the benefactor of in 2016)  is becoming less common. Chuck Grassley will almost surely come closer to losing this year than in 2016. That doesn’t say anything about the environment or Iowa’s trajectory, however.

7. I doubt DeSantis will significantly outrun Rubio

8. No Rubio would not lose in a Trump midterm, and no Rubio would not be down by 5-8 points in even a republican president Kim Jong Un midterm