Rate GA-GOV

[Woody]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-7538.html#polls

[Politician]

Lean R, Abrams has proven to be the O'Rourke of GA: got Democrats excited in 2018, but has totally gone off the deep end.

[wesmoorenerd]

Lean R, one of the three Biden state Republicans that I'm convinced will stay R in November

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lean Kemp.  But I'm curious: why did you label the options as Safe/Likely/Lean/Tilt Kemp, and Safe/Likely/Lean/Tilt D?  The Democratic nominee has already been selected.  It would have made more sense to do either "Kemp" and "Abrams", or "R" and "D".

[Roll Roons]

Lean R, closer to Likely than Tossup.

It's clear that there will be a significant number of Kemp-Warnock voters.

[Podgy the Bear]

It's clear that there will be a significant number of Kemp-Warnock voters.

Will definitely happen in suburban Atlanta--which makes the difference for Warnock.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's clear that there will be a significant number of Kemp-Warnock voters.

Will definitely happen in suburban Atlanta--which makes the difference for Warnock.

Prolly only in Cobb and North Fulton county. I expect Abrams and Warnock to win Gwinett by nearly identical margins. Only place I could see Abrams very very slightly outrunning Warnock would be in heavily African American parts of the Atlanta metro as she's prolly more of the turnout machine on the ticket and you could ahve a few people who just vote for Walker cause they recognize his name.

But ye, it's much easier to see a Warnock - Kemp voter than Abrams - Walker voters.

[GALeftist]

I'm gonna be bold and say Tilt Kemp. I don't think Abrams is nearly as strong as Warnock, but I also think she is pretty severely underrated on this forum, and Georgia is also a pretty polarized state to the point where I struggle to see an insane difference between how the two candidates perform. Sure, those points are going to give Warnock a chance if Abrams has none, and they'll give him a cushion if GOV is a squeaker, but it's not enough to bridge the gap between Tilt and Likely, or even Tilt and Lean imo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It Leans D it's a Runoff anyways Kemp must get 50% and with Warnock on ballot this time I don't see Kemp avoiding the Runoff and the Runoff is in Jan plenty of time for D's to GOTV

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.

I expect Kemp win by mid single digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not even Labor Day yet and some users are declaring the Election over it's not we still gotta vote

[smoltchanov]

Lean R, Abrams has proven to be the O'Rourke of GA: got Democrats excited in 2018, but has totally gone off the deep end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, Abrams has proven to be the O'Rourke of GA: got Democrats excited in 2018, but has totally gone off the deep end.

Kemp 53/44 over Abrams
Ryan 43(34 Same 9 pt lead

Ryan has the same 9 pt lead as Kemp and users are declaring that falsehood but Kemp has a 9  pt lead it's truth lol plse we still gotta vote

[PSOL]

Safe Kemp, Republicans are just going to rig the election again.

Shameful how democrats are dropping the most promising Democratic contender of the new generation. Abrams is literally running the best campaign ever done and, on account of her being black and outspoken, Democrats don’t like her. When a Stalinist t-34sexual is the only one who sees reality in the genius of some boogie randroid, you know peoples priorities ain’t right.

[President Johnson]

Safe Kemp, Republicans are just going to rig the election again.

Shameful how democrats are dropping the most promising Democratic contender of the new generation. Abrams is literally running the best campaign ever done and, on account of her being black and outspoken, Democrats don’t like her. When a Stalinist t-34sexual is the only one who sees reality in the genius of some boogie randroid, you know peoples priorities ain’t right.

Kemp doesn't have to rig this, he's favored regardless.

I'd rate it Lean Republican. My prediction would be Kemp wins With 51-52% of the vote compared to Abrams' 46-47%.

[Politician]

Safe Kemp, Republicans are just going to rig the election again.

Shameful how democrats are dropping the most promising Democratic contender of the new generation. Abrams is literally running the best campaign ever done and, on account of her being black and outspoken, Democrats don’t like her. When a Stalinist t-34sexual is the only one who sees reality in the genius of some boogie randroid, you know peoples priorities ain’t right.

Why nobody listens to Democrats about January 6th in a nutshell

Besides, why didn't Republicans rig the 2020 presidential election in GA? Why didn't they rig the two Senate races when control was at stake?

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean R, closer to Tilt than Likely

Abrams still has a chance to win, but her path is narrow, and probably requires avoiding a runoff (which will favor the incumbent-the same is probably true in the Senate race, especially with Herschel Walker being the Republican nominee there), Warnock avoiding a runoff in the Senate race (not likely), and Georgia voting significantly to the left of the nation (also unlikely. Even the Warnock win I'm predicting is more of a reflection on Walker as a candidate than on the political climate).

[Xing]

Lean R, though close to Likely. Kinda shows how low the bar is for a Republican to be considered “moderate.”

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R, though close to Likely. Kinda shows how low the bar is for a Republican to be considered “moderate.”

It's not Labor Day and it's a Runoff state Kemp has the same  9 pt lead as Ryan has on Vance

[GeorgiaModerate]

Safe Kemp, Republicans are just going to rig the election again.

Shameful how democrats are dropping the most promising Democratic contender of the new generation. Abrams is literally running the best campaign ever done and, on account of her being black and outspoken, Democrats don’t like her. When a Stalinist t-34sexual is the only one who sees reality in the genius of some boogie randroid, you know peoples priorities ain’t right.

Please don't preemptively claim that an election will be rigged.  It makes you sound like a Republican.

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely Kemp in practice. Kemp's got a consistent lead in the polls and the MAGA crazies will stay in line for the most part (I doubt we'll see some massive number of them stay home because Trump's not on the ballot). Now if Perdue had won things could've been competitive, but I expect Kemp to win by 5 points or so. (That's in sharp contrast to the Senate race, where I'd say Walker's impending implosion will mean that Warnock ultimately wins, possibly by even more than last year.)

[Schiff for Senate]

It's clear that there will be a significant number of Kemp-Warnock voters.

Will definitely happen in suburban Atlanta--which makes the difference for Warnock.

Prolly only in Cobb and North Fulton county. I expect Abrams and Warnock to win Gwinett by nearly identical margins. Only place I could see Abrams very very slightly outrunning Warnock would be in heavily African American parts of the Atlanta metro as she's prolly more of the turnout machine on the ticket and you could ahve a few people who just vote for Walker cause they recognize his name.

But ye, it's much easier to see a Warnock - Kemp voter than Abrams - Walker voters.

I disagree. Candidate quality does matter. Kemp is relatively sane, while Walker is totally crazy. I anticipate Warnock to outrun Abrams by at least 5 points, and very possibly even more. In places like Gwinnett County, my guess is the outperformance is similar (so roughly 5 points).

[Utah Neolib]

Lean Kemp. Kemp seems to have thoroughly established himself in Georgia conservative and MAGA circles. He seems like he’d do quite good with independents. Abrams campaign doesn’t seem to be on the same tier as her 2018 campaign. I’m expecting a 4 point victory for Kemp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean Kemp. Kemp seems to have thoroughly established himself in Georgia conservative and MAGA circles. He seems like he’d do quite good with independents. Abrams campaign doesn’t seem to be on the same tier as her 2018 campaign. I’m expecting a 4 point victory for Kemp.

Kemp has the same mine pt lead as Ryan has on Vance Kemp 53/44 and Ryan 43/34 it'a not Labor Day yet let's wait for a poll after Labor Day, it's a Runoff state anyways

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Likely R