2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Frodo]

With Charles having joined Prince George's county in becoming majority African-American, I expect Anne Arundel (given current trends) to be the next county in southern Maryland to become at least majority-minority by the time of the 2040 census, if not earlier:

Charles County Surpasses Prince George's as Wealthiest Black County in US: Post

[If my soul was made of stone]

With Charles having joined Prince George's county in becoming majority African-American, I expect Anne Arundel (given current trends) to be the next county in southern Maryland to become at least majority-minority by the time of the 2040 census, if not earlier:

Charles County Surpasses Prince George's as Wealthiest Black County in US: Post

AACo is not "southern Maryland", lol. Or at least not the parts that are diversifying, and Hispanic growth there is on par with Black growth (and roughly on par with Hispanic growth in Charles, actually, but of course far less than the never-ending PG spillover that made it one of only two Dole-Gore counties nationwide).

[Frodo]

With Charles having joined Prince George's county in becoming majority African-American, I expect Anne Arundel (given current trends) to be the next county in southern Maryland to become at least majority-minority by the time of the 2040 census, if not earlier:

Charles County Surpasses Prince George's as Wealthiest Black County in US: Post

AACo is not "southern Maryland", lol. Or at least not the parts that are diversifying, and Hispanic growth there is on par with Black growth (and roughly on par with Hispanic growth in Charles, actually, but of course far less than the never-ending PG spillover that made it one of only two Dole-Gore counties nationwide).

Like the 'South', the definition of what constitutes 'southern Maryland' depends on who you ask.  According to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources for instance, all of Anne Arundel County is considered part of this region:

 
source

I will take their word over yours, thanks.

As to Anne Arundel becoming minority-majority, the trend is clear to anyone:

2000 census

White: 81.2%
Black: 13.6%
Asian: 2.3%
Hispanic: 2.63%
Two or more races: 1.7%

2010 census

White:  75.4%
Black: 15.5%
Asian: 3.4%
Hispanic: 6.1%
Two or more races: 2.9%

2020 census

White: 65.2%
Black: 17.4%
Asian: 4.3%
Hispanic: 9.65%
Two or more races: 5.3%
----------------------------------------

So it looks like the 2030 census will be the last time whites will have a majority in the county.  

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly if DC just continues to consume more and more of Maryland it may become the bluest state nationally.

[sting in the rafters]

Forgot I had this and never posted:



1. MD being closed primary state means your choices are 6 good Ds, 7 mediocre Ds, or 8 s___y ones. From a war-room standpoint, imo you go 6 good ones, they get s___ done, them getting s____ done+the DMV swallowing everything in its wake turns the Eastern Shore district blue by the time the decade's out. The only issue is the orange district's rep has a high variance of potentially being inexecreble. More on that in point 3.
2. The BoCo quadcut may seem nonsensical, however A) I'd argue there's more than substantial reason it should be split 4 ways and B) its just a good junction point.
3. There's arguments both for and against splitting Bmore proper. Anecdotally, there are legions of Massholes and other bougie-a55 bohemian wonderbread New Englanders flocking to the DMV. Imo it would be wise to insulate Bmore proper from them as their concerns can be uhhh.... different and frankly if they overrun Bmore I will take it personally.
4.Achievement Unlocked for a 70+% black PG County-based district.

Honestly if DC just continues to consume more and more of Maryland it may become the bluest state nationally.

As aforementioned its ironic bc they're all comin from what are the bluest states now. Idrk ab the intraparty dynamics of the Maryland Democratic Party, but just being a large party in a closed primary state means they're probably gonna have some sort of schism if they haven't already. Not a schism in terms of registration because again its a closed state, but probably each are gonna have their own mini-coalitions going on and whatnot.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Like the 'South', the definition of what constitutes 'southern Maryland' depends on who you ask.  According to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources for instance, all of Anne Arundel County is considered part of this region:

 
source

I will take their word over yours, thanks.

The word of an organization that uses Comic Sans over mine, that of a fellow Atlas blogger? Shameful.

There have been maps that crossed the Bay without using the Bay Bridge before, but I'm sure doing it again now would result in very entertaining litigation. Endorsed.

[sting in the rafters]

There have been maps that crossed the Bay without using the Bay Bridge before, but I'm sure doing it again now would result in very entertaining litigation. Endorsed.

“Your honor, my clients’ constituents cross faster by speedboat anyway.”

[cvparty]

With Charles having joined Prince George's county in becoming majority African-American, I expect Anne Arundel (given current trends) to be the next county in southern Maryland to become at least majority-minority by the time of the 2040 census, if not earlier:

Charles County Surpasses Prince George's as Wealthiest Black County in US: Post

AACo is not "southern Maryland", lol. Or at least not the parts that are diversifying, and Hispanic growth there is on par with Black growth (and roughly on par with Hispanic growth in Charles, actually, but of course far less than the never-ending PG spillover that made it one of only two Dole-Gore counties nationwide).

Like the 'South', the definition of what constitutes 'southern Maryland' depends on who you ask.  According to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources for instance, all of Anne Arundel County is considered part of this region:

 
source

I will take their word over yours, thanks.

As to Anne Arundel becoming minority-majority, the trend is clear to anyone:

2000 census

White: 81.2%
Black: 13.6%
Asian: 2.3%
Hispanic: 2.63%
Two or more races: 1.7%

2010 census

White:  75.4%
Black: 15.5%
Asian: 3.4%
Hispanic: 6.1%
Two or more races: 2.9%

2020 census

White: 65.2%
Black: 17.4%
Asian: 4.3%
Hispanic: 9.65%
Two or more races: 5.3%
----------------------------------------

So it looks like the 2030 census will be the last time whites will have a majority in the county.  

They’re just using whole counties, but only the southernmost portion of Anne Arundel is actually southern Maryland. At its most generous definition, everything south of Annapolis?