Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Suella Braverman is actually running? Is this a fever dream?

[afleitch]

Kemi Badenoch has announced her candidacy, presumably for people who thought Suella ‘cultural Marxism’ Braverman was too soft on the cultural wars.

For the sort of voter who doesn't want to see gender neutral toilets when they visit their foodbank.

[Chickpeas]

This is going to be like the Democrats in 2020 or the Republicans in 2016 isn't it? And, as in those cases, a lot of them will pull out before any vote has been cast.

It was already getting a bit like that in 2019, 13 candidates and 3 of those (Sam Gyimah, James Cleverly and Kit Malthouse) dropped out before the first ballot.

Can see the same number or even more happening this time around.   

[Torrain]

In today's contribution to farce - Rehman Chishti seems to believe the best way to hint at a leadership campaign is to tweet slightly-blurry screenshots of a BBC News story about your own ambitions:

https://twitter.com/Rehman_Chishti/status/1545662572958953472

[CumbrianLefty]

Briefings put out Javid should drop out for Sunak.

At this early stage I assume it’s likely Sunak gets to the final round- going to be hilarious if they Braverman up against him and she ends up winning.

Far from guaranteed Sunak gets that far IMO.

He's produced a slick launch video, that's basically it.

His glaring weaknesses are still there.

[TheTide]

Wallace not standing.

[JimJamUK]

Kemi Badenoch has announced her candidacy, presumably for people who thought Suella ‘cultural Marxism’ Braverman was too soft on the cultural wars.

For the sort of voter who doesn't want to see gender neutral toilets when they visit their foodbank.

The first ever Equalities Minister who sees her primary purpose as opposing equality.

[Alcibiades]

Wallace not standing.

Good news for anyone who wants the Tories to lose the next election, I reckon.

[Zinneke]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

Fundamentally they're pretty similar so it's mostly a case of positioning, but Sunak is much fussier about things like budget deficits and fiscal rectitude, while Truss thinks that free tax cuts are a thing you can have even without a windfall of cash. Truss has also leaned much more into stupid Culture War nonsense, but, again, 'positioning'.

[Alcibiades]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

It’s quite ironic that, during the referendum campaign, Sunak was the Brexiteer and Truss was the Remainer. From everything else about them - or at least from how they’ve acted since - you’d expect it to be the other way round.

Edit: This leads on to one of the biggest differences between them: Sunak potentially does have some ideological principles, whereas Truss is a total careerist who will do and say anything to advance her position.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Sunak just doesn't come across as authentic or in touch with anyone even the Tory base. I don't think he can relate to someone who isn't earning 7 figures.

[JimJamUK]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

Truss seems to have been on more of an ideological journey, going from a CND/left of Labour family to student Lib Dem to free market libertarian to now a fairly standard right wing Tory. In contrast, Sunak seems to have always been a standard posh right wing Tory. In terms of policy they probably end up in the same place, but rhetorically I would imagine a Truss premiership would be more publicly ideological in economics and dip a bit more into the cultural wars.

[afleitch]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

It’s quite ironic that, during the referendum campaign, Sunak was the Brexiteer and Truss was the Remainer. From everything else about them - or at least from how they’ve acted since - you’d expect it to be the other way round.

Edit: This leads on to one of the biggest differences between them: Sunak potentially does have some ideological principles, whereas Truss is a total careerist who will do and say anything to advance her position.

A huge swathe of the front runners, cabinet ministers etc were first elected (and nominated) under Cameron. Under Boris they have debased themselves to a lackyish parody of what they think a Boris fan/red wall boomer likes, particularly on the culture wars, even though Boris himself hasn't. There has always been an easy osmosis between the media and politicians in the UK, and a lot set themselves up a persona in anticipation of the Fox News style right wing news channels for exposure that recently started up but have proven to be failures. So they still lean into that, as well as the TERF panic and probably see this campaign to test it's popularity amongst party grassroots.

Do Tories want a 'winner' or a 'steady hand' or are in the stage of just wanting everything to burn.

[TheTide]

What are the core differences between Sunak and Truss outiside the latter being a halfwit? It seems like a very similar front 2 in terms of wing if the party. I understand Sunaks appeal to the more moderates though.

It’s quite ironic that, during the referendum campaign, Sunak was the Brexiteer and Truss was the Remainer. From everything else about them - or at least from how they’ve acted since - you’d expect it to be the other way round.

Edit: This leads on to one of the biggest differences between them: Sunak potentially does have some ideological principles, whereas Truss is a total careerist who will do and say anything to advance her position.

A huge swathe of the front runners, cabinet ministers etc were first elected (and nominated) under Cameron. Under Boris they have debased themselves to a lackyish parody of what they think a Boris fan/red wall boomer likes, particularly on the culture wars, even though Boris himself hasn't. There has always been an easy osmosis between the media and politicians in the UK, and a lot set themselves up a persona in anticipation of the Fox News style right wing news channels for exposure that recently started up but have proven to be failures. So they still lean into that, as well as the TERF panic and probably see this campaign to test it's popularity amongst party grassroots.

Do Tories want a 'winner' or a 'steady hand' or are in the stage of just wanting everything to burn.

They elected a winner (but not a steady hand) in 2019 and then everything burned.

[Flyersfan232]

I don’t really think that much of the lobby or coverage has considered just how march the Parliamentary Conservative party has changed since 2019- I think the 2019 intake has about 100 people in it.

Wasn't there supposed to be a NewGen Conservative candidate? So far some old names have been touted by the press

define newgen cause they are some names who would count

[TheTide]

Tughenhat and Javid backed by Anna Soubry. That's them done.

[TheTide]

Just about credible enough to post (she's a former deputy editor of The Spectator), but it would be extraordinary even for him.

https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520?s=20&t=GCQ_2X...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Just about credible enough to post (she's a former deputy editor of The Spectator), but it would be extraordinary even for him.

https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520?s=20&t=GCQ_2X...

Boris Johnson must truly hate the Tory party

[Oryxslayer]

Just about credible enough to post (she's a former deputy editor of The Spectator), but it would be extraordinary even for him.

https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520?s=20&t=GCQ_2X...

Boris Johnson must truly hate the Tory party

This smells like "I really want to imitate present Trump, but I don't fully understand how the rules of the game allow for different outcomes because of different systems." Whether thats the editor, the source, or Boris who trying to foster that comparison is unknown.

[Flyersfan232]

FT reporting nominations will open on Tuesday, with the first ballot on Wednesday and then another the day after.

Do they have hustings at the MPs stage? It seems bizarre not to and just vote on vibes, job offers and petty feuds.

what is a husting?

[Torrain]

Just about credible enough to post (she's a former deputy editor of The Spectator), but it would be extraordinary even for him.

https://twitter.com/PetronellaWyatt/status/1545755462292971520?s=20&t=GCQ_2Xf5Ha9jEDJ9fCPb2A

This would not be permitted under current party rules - which were changed after John Major took this exact gamble in 1995. See this passage from the Conservative Party Constitution:

SCHEDULE 2
RULES FOR THE ELECTION OF THE LEADER

• The Leader shall be elected by the Party Members and Scottish Party Members.
• A Leader resigning from the Leadership of the Party is not eligible for re-nomination in the consequent Leadership election.

[/list]

[Torrain]

Shapps is in:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1545800504810373122

[JimJamUK]

Endorsements spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ffqemZ-YOi7AvAw8HbxmMd0vIbsOXLZ7KpAmNQPD2r8/htmlview#gid=0

Sunak leads the pack and his endorsements look pretty varied. Braverman is actually in second, surprisingly entirely male and mostly elderly.

[Coldstream]

Shapps is in:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1545800504810373122

I do think he’s an underrated candidate, he’s got fewer enemies than most of the others - but he’ll struggle to get past the ridicule factor.