Conservative Party of the UK Leadership Election, 2022

[MABA 2020]

Theresa May should come back. Maymentum!

You know I'd actually like to see her comeback as caretaker PM for a few months, not even joking.

[Biden 2024]

Theresa May should come back. Maymentum!

You know I'd actually love to see her comeback as caretaker PM for a few months, not even joking.

Yeah I miss her

[Biden 2024]

Is Kwasi Kwarteng angling?

[DL]

Does the party have a problem with Islamophobia and islamophobic attitudes? Yes. But  it doesn’t extend to Tory voters refusing to vote for someone like Rishi Sunak.

To be fair, there are other things about Sunak that are much more likely to repulse voters than his ethnicity - such as his background as a billionaire plutocrat who has engaged in tax evasion schemes with his wife etc...

[Joe Republic]

Tom Tugatwat (sp?) is in. 

[TheTide]

Wallace is in.

[TheTide]

Grant Shapps is also in.

[Coldstream]

It’ll be interesting to see how Wallace fairs in the public spotlight for the first time in his career. With the loonies & crooks around him in Johnson’s cabinet he didn’t really receive much attention, beyond the (understandably) uncritical coverage over Ukraine. My gut is that he’ll wilt and not make the run off.

[Coldstream]

My guess is the field ends up as: Hunt, Javid, Tugendhat, Zahawi, Truss, Javid, Sunak*, Braverman, Wallace, Shapps, Mordaunt, Harper.

*whilst the media seem to think he’s running, and there’s no smoke without fire usually, I’m unconvinced particularly given the battering he’s received in the last few months from the media.

I think Patel knows she wouldn’t win, and would want to try and be as nice as possible to every candidate in the hopes of keeping her job, or at least getting another one. Whilst Steve Baker is a born choker.

[Torrain]

What's Wallace's story? I like a lot of what he's said and done with regards to Ukraine, but I've also vaguely heard he's pretty unpleasant (from my ideological and aesthetic point of view) otherwise.

Wallace is a bit of an enigma. He started off in the army (and unlike most MPs, never went to university).

Interviews with a fellow soldier paint a picture of a younger man fond of a heavy night out, which hold a few embarrassing stories they swear they won’t tell. I’ve seen a couple of anecdotes that all read like the following quote:
“He’s great company. A good mimic. He sends people up. He sends deeply inappropriate memes on WhatsApp. I could tell you about the time he was serving in Northern Ireland…”

He served in the British Army in Northern Ireland during the Troubles (and was awarded a distinction for his role capturing an IRA cell whilst they were setting up an explosive) - which would be *interesting* for negotiations with Sinn Fein.

He then spent a single term in the Scottish Parliament, before joining the House of Commons in 2005, and was anonymous for a decade.

He supported the campaign to remain in the EU, but pivoted to Team Boris almost immediately afterwards. This shift in loyalties led to a rare public outburst when Michael Gove backstabbed Johnson and ended his leadership bid (which Wallace ran) - with Wallace using a Game of Thrones reference to publicly suggest he wanted to castrate Gove:
https://mobile.twitter.com/bwallacemp/status/748856442132819969

He’s kept a low profile since Johnson won the leadership in 2019, but has built a reputation as a respected Defence Minister. Although it was Ukraine that brought him into the public consciousness, he had already won plaudits for being the only “adult in the room” during the Afghanistan withdrawal - which elsewhere led to scandal for both Boris Johnson, and then Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, who was forced to resign over his refusal to end his holiday early and address the crisis from London:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/27/praise-ben-wallace-adult-room/

Politically, he’s known to be more socially conservative than recent PMs. Unlike May and Cameron, he voted against the legalisation of same sex marriage in 2013. (Johnson in contrast wasn’t an MP at the time, but was Mayor, and in his most socially liberal phase).

He’s also the guy who let slip that Johnson’s prorogation of Parliament in 2019 (later found illegal by the Supreme Court) was an active attempt to stymie the Commons from voting against the government’s policy.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ben-wallace-boris-johnson-brexit-prorogation-dominic-cummings-coup-a9084321.html?amp

[Lord Halifax]

My guess is the field ends up as: Hunt, Javid, Tugendhat, Zahawi, Truss, Javid, Sunak*, Braverman, Wallace, Shapps, Mordaunt, Harper.

Who is the second Javid? Basit, Tariq, Khalid, Atif or Laura?

[JimJamUK]

Grant Shapps is also in.

I've seen a bit of hype for Michael Green Grant Shapps over the past few days. Could someone explain his supposed appeal? His management of the rail strikes (spending all his time on tv instead of making negotiations happen/succeed) doesn't give the impression of someone ready to run the country.

[DINGO Joe]

Wasn't Wallace a remainer?

[Blair]

It says a lot about Wallace that I thought he was in the 2015 intake rather than the 2005 one!

[EastAnglianLefty]

I have to think that from Labour's point of view the dream Tory leader would have to be Liz Truss. Who would be better to run against than a Cruella DeVil-type "rich bitch" guaranteed to make any remaining "red wall" Tory voters drop the Tories like a hot potato!

Another factor people will be too polite to say publicly is the fact that so much of the Tory voter base and membership are racists - and if they were to make Sunak, Javid or Zawahi the new Tory leader - a lot of the "white working class" pro-Brexit types in the so-called Red Wall seats who were attracted to BoJo will be instantly turned off and will not vote at all in the next election.

The bottom part isn’t true remotely though- even among the Tory membership there are very few of these types. We know this because the Tory membership in safe tory shire seats has a record of selecting non-white candidates.

Does the party have a problem with Islamophobia and islamophobic attitudes? Yes. But  it doesn’t extend to Tory voters refusing to vote for someone like Rishi Sunak.

I'd add that just because somebody holds racist attitudes that doesn't mean they won't vote for a minority candidate - in fact for many of them there's an active appeal to having somebody from that group who agrees with them to vote for, so they can claim they're not racist without having to change their opinions.

[TheTide]

Mark Jenkinson, MP for Workington, has declared his candidacy. Most random so far. Although it may be an literal joke, can't tell.

[icc]

Mark Jenkinson, MP for Workington, has declared his candidacy. Most random so far. Although it may be an literal joke, can't tell.

It is very obviously a joke.

[Blair]

Grant Shapps is also in.

I've seen a bit of hype for Michael Green Grant Shapps over the past few days. Could someone explain his supposed appeal? His management of the rail strikes (spending all his time on tv instead of making negotiations happen/succeed) doesn't give the impression of someone ready to run the country.

He is the prime example of how a very bad cabinet means that people who were mildly competent previously become seen as rocksolid performers.

He has broadly been quite good at transport in the sense of not creating any disasters, he’s quite good on the telly and seeing as relatively non-ideological. I always thought he would be made Home Sec for this reason.

[Blair]

I don’t really think that much of the lobby or coverage has considered just how march the Parliamentary Conservative party has changed since 2019- I think the 2019 intake has about 100 people in it.

[Zinneke]

I don’t really think that much of the lobby or coverage has considered just how march the Parliamentary Conservative party has changed since 2019- I think the 2019 intake has about 100 people in it.

Wasn't there supposed to be a NewGen Conservative candidate? So far some old names have been touted by the press

[Blair]

John Baron mulling a run.

[TheTide]

John Baron mulling a run.

Based on nominative determinism again, he should be aiming for a place in the Lords.

[Coldstream]

Grant Shapps is also in.

I've seen a bit of hype for Michael Green Grant Shapps over the past few days. Could someone explain his supposed appeal? His management of the rail strikes (spending all his time on tv instead of making negotiations happen/succeed) doesn't give the impression of someone ready to run the country.

He is the prime example of how a very bad cabinet means that people who were mildly competent previously become seen as rocksolid performers.

He has broadly been quite good at transport in the sense of not creating any disasters, he’s quite good on the telly and seeing as relatively non-ideological. I always thought he would be made Home Sec for this reason.

Shapps is also so shameless that he can/will defend any policy and at least not look insane whilst doing it. I can see why Tory MP’s might be tempted by him.

[DL]

Can absolutely any Tory MP run for leader and be on the ballot or is there any requirement for a minimum number of MP "endorsements" to be a candidate?

[Blair]

Can absolutely any Tory MP run for leader and be on the ballot or is there any requirement for a minimum number of MP "endorsements" to be a candidate?

To be decided by 1922. Was only 2 MPs one time but expect it will be higher along with a required minimum after each round (e.g anyway below 20 votes is out)

With this many serious campaigns, combined with jokes ones we could see a very funny first round where no one gets more than 40.