OH Center Street PAC: Ryan +9

[Minnesota Mike]

As I have said all along I expect Vance to win but Ryan has a legit shot. This is a lean R race not safe R like has been the default position of most on this board.

The race will be called at poll closing time.

Networks/news orgs are a lot more weary than they used to be. They ain't calling this unless its like Vance +15

They called a Biden +0 state expecting it to be Biden +15 in 2020.

Even Fox did not call AZ at poll closing time, they waited until a large chunk of the vote was in. Very rare they call states using just exit polls now days.

[Minnesota Mike]

As I have said all along I expect Vance to win but Ryan has a legit shot. This is a lean R race not safe R like has been the default position of most on this board.

The race will be called at poll closing time.

Networks/news orgs are a lot more weary than they used to be. They ain't calling this unless its like Vance +15

They called a Biden +0 state expecting it to be Biden +15 in 2020.

Even Fox did not call AZ at poll closing time, they waited until a large chunk of the vote was in. Very rare they call states using just exit polls now days.

Did a little googling.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/politics/trump-fox-news-arizona.html

That mirage of victory was pierced when Fox News called Arizona for former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. at 11:20 p.m., with just 73 percent of the state’s vote counted.

They probably called AZ too early but it was nowhere near poll closing time.

[Meatball Ron]

So this poll is garbage - but not a single poster in this thread has accurately identified why. Instead of just saying "muh, Dem doing well in Lean R state in red year, junk poll" (which has some truth to it, for sure, but risks falling into the trap of confirmation bias), maybe take 5 minutes to identify the actual flaws with the methodology:

• The poll does not reflect the state's electorate: sample is Trump +2 even though Trump won the state by 8 and we have no reason to believe the electorate will be MORE Democratic than it was two years ago
• The poll does not weight by education - which we learned the hard way in 2016 is a huge flaw in the current political environment, especially in the Midwest of all places

It took me all of 5 minutes to figure that out and write this up. Don't be lazy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Sherrod Brown won in 2018 in OH when Portman and Trump won 2016 and we lost that yr ND, FL, IN and MO it wasn't an all blue yr in 2018 the poll is not trash, we Ds we're supposed to net TN and TX and win both H in 2018

D's are winning because they are passing legislation it's not a blue or red yr until the results are in yeah Biden have bad Approval numbers but so did Trump and he netted seats in both 2018/20 he was supposed to lose seats in 20 he gained H seats that's what Pelosi said and D's have been leading on the GCB it's plus 3 43/40 in the You Gov poll

Users are so anxious to call it a red wave are they moderators no they are not, you will find out the results just like everyone else will on 150 days, D's as well as Rs will be voting, until then it's just partisan spill in a possibility of a red wave

[Sir Mohamed]

43-34%? LOL, complete garbage.

That said, Ryan may actually end up with that 43% of the vote. Likely/Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

43-34%? LOL, complete garbage.

That said, Ryan may actually end up with that 43% of the vote. Likely/Safe R.

Lol no and Vance is gonna end up with 34% quoting R themes again

[Ferguson97]

This is the result if you count all the LEGAL votes.

[President Johnson]

Why even release such a junk poll? The undecided number makes it worthless.

I actually feel like the pollsters will just again completely screw this one up, showing a potentially competitive race before Ryan gets clobbered with ten point loss. I'm not one of the liberals who falls for this again, gets excited and then check the actual results on November 9. This might be tighter in a Trump midterm, but since this isn't... the Democrats are very unlikely to flip a seat in a state Biden lost by eight.

[Brittain33]

Dobbs effect!

Just kidding.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dobbs effect!

Just kidding.

Sherrod Brown beat Renacci in 2018 right after Trp neat Hillary by 8 do Ryan can win this seat doesn't belong to Rs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why even release such a junk poll? The undecided number makes it worthless.

I actually feel like the pollsters will just again completely screw this one up, showing a potentially competitive race before Ryan gets clobbered with ten point loss. I'm not one of the liberals who falls for this again, gets excited and then check the actual results on November 9. This might be tighter in a Trump midterm, but since this isn't... the Democrats are very unlikely to flip a seat in a state Biden lost by eight.

Read my comments below   SHERROD BROWN BEAT RENACCI BY 6 RIGHT AFTER TRUMP BEAT HILLARY BY 8 , AND WE DIDNT WIN 2018 OVERWHELM WE LOST MO, FL, ND and IN


This seat is wave insurance after WI and. PA the definition of wave insurance in case D's win not a sure thing Ryan Beasley and Demings and Frankie are wave insurance

[President Johnson]

Why even release such a junk poll? The undecided number makes it worthless.

I actually feel like the pollsters will just again completely screw this one up, showing a potentially competitive race before Ryan gets clobbered with ten point loss. I'm not one of the liberals who falls for this again, gets excited and then check the actual results on November 9. This might be tighter in a Trump midterm, but since this isn't... the Democrats are very unlikely to flip a seat in a state Biden lost by eight.

Read my comments below   SHERROD BROWN BEAT RENACCI BY 6 RIGHT AFTER TRUMP BEAT HILLARY BY 8 , AND WE DIDNT WIN 2018 OVERWHELM WE LOST MO, FL, ND and IN


This seat is wave insurance after WI and. PA the definition of wave insurance in case D's win not a sure thing Ryan Beasley and Demings and Frankie are wave insurance

Sherrod Brown was a popular incumbent with a strong local brand who was fortunate enough to run for reelection in Blue Wave year. Neither is being the case this time around. Ohio has probably trended somewhat more Republican, given that Biden lost by roughly the same than Clinton despite winning the popular vote by bigger margin nationwide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We lost MO, IN, WVA and ND in 2018 and we were expected to pick up TN with Phil Bredesen

We will see on EDay but it's not unlikely that this seat flips,I will continue to Donate to Ryan

[Politician]

When did Olawakandi start commissioning polls?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't Commission polls I just put them on my map in case D's win what's the pt of scoreboard watching if you don't have them on your map, your Favorite candidate, anyways, I would just make an R nut map and not vote at all, but I donate and participate so I make mock prediction that have my Fav candidate, Al Franken made a bold prediction, yesterday D's will win 56 seats OH, FL, NC and IA on MSNBC and he loves Mike Franken, and 57 which includes La if we win the Runoff in LA


It's black and Brown voters and under 30;that are in between residence school and home that make 300 K provision ballots statewide not metri


Margin of difference in a 51/49 race in OH or IA or NC or FL


Trump makes no attempts with this Vance to reach out to Blk voters Elder lost already and WARNOCK leads 48/44 he only thinks about tax cuts for the rich something Blks dislike more than anything


Today look we have Franken behind only 5 pts 49/44 like Beto is down only five 45/40 close enough for me with Blk and Brown vote

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

When did Olawakandi start commissioning polls?

Here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is still in  all the rankings Likely R but Rs don't have a monopoly on red states it's silly to think Rs can win blue states but D's can't win red states anyways and what if Warnock or Barnes loses we are targeting MO, IA, NC and FL as well as OH, Warnock has a Runoff and can lose

OH, NC, FL, IA and MO guarenteed D's 52 seats if Warnock loses a runoff he has to get 50% to avoid a Jan Runoff

[Senator Incitatus]

...

It took me all of 5 minutes to figure that out and write this up. Don't be lazy.

Are you familiar with the concept of rational apathy? Some things simply don't need a closer look or a paragraph-long write-up.

[Gracile]

This poll thread seems like a strong contender for getting bumped after election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This poll thread seems like a strong contender for getting bumped after election day.

Tim Ryan LEADS by 2 pts, LOL

[Rjjr77]

Presented without comment.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1544814878237638657

This poll is awful.
1. Registered voters.
2. Internet.
3. Self Selected Sample
4. No geographic weighting

[RJ]

Tim Ryan is a formidable candidate and J-Dummy Vance is nothing more than another one of Trump's noxious picks to compete for a senate seat.

Dr. Oz and Herchel Walker have no business being anywhere near a senate seat. Those 2 clades have so much baggage it isn't even funny. However, after witnessing the GOP primary process, well, let's just say Vance is probably the least offensive candidates the Republican party had to offer this spring according to liberals. There's also his baggage with that Hillbilly Elegy writing and then having a movie made out of it.

It's funny how the prevailing opinion here is that "Ryan has a shot" but "he's fighting uphill." There's a lot of time before this election but if it were held today, while I wouldn't say Ryan by 9 i might be tempted to say something like Ryan +3-4.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH split it's votes for Gov and Sen in 2018 it's not gonna be six like Brown but I can see DeWine and Reynolds winning and Frankie and Ryan winning 51/49,every Election isn't the same just like in NH SUNUNU is favored and Hassan is favored split voting and in GA Kemp and Warnock can win , the same in AZ Lake/Kelly split

D's are gonna do better in Sen and Gov races  and we can see a Speaker McCarthy and Leader Schumer

But it took several weeks to count 12 H races , in 2020, but so it can take that long to decide the H but I expect Speaker McCarthy and Leader Schumer and D's netting anywhere between 53 to 56 seats but 53 definitely with OH, WI and PA and GA and AZ with a plus 10 R net gain in the H obviously, 56 we would have a D Trifecta

I expect 24 to 28 D Govs and Nikki Fried can beat DeSantis she is now tied with Crist in primary

[Meatball Ron]

...

It took me all of 5 minutes to figure that out and write this up. Don't be lazy.

Are you familiar with the concept of rational apathy? Some things simply don't need a closer look or a paragraph-long write-up.

Sure, except the reasons why people claimed the poll were junk (because the results aren't what they expected) is inherently fallacious. The actual answer was sitting right there. Why even bother posting on the forum in that case?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

77% is useless, but Ryan's lead is also +9 above LV, 49-40.

Obv that's not happening but interesting things here are that Ryan is winning independents, which I believe the past few polls have shown.

Also Ryan getting 13% of Rs, while Vance only getting 6% of Ds

Ryan obviously has a huge uphill battle, but those two avenues represent his best chance

LVs are useless. Registered voters is almost always closer. This is actually I think why polls recently have overstated Dems. Because college educated voters are more likely to be ‘likely voters’ based on ‘how many of the past elections have you voted in’ type screens.