TX-GOV (UT/Texas): Abbott +6

[wbrocks67]

Abbott (R) 45%
O’Rourke (D) 39%
Tippets (L) 2%
Barrios (G) 1%
Someone else 3%
No opinion 10%

Was Abbott 48-37 in April

*of note though, this was done June 16-24, so before Roe

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/new-uttexas-politics-project-poll-share-texans-saying-state-wrong-track-reaches-new-high-while

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Partisan trends don't matter in Midterms as much as they do in Prez, we won in 2006 and 2018 and 2019 red states not so much in Prez except for 2008/12

2000/2004/16/20 blue States

It's possible Beto and Crist and Ryan and Beasley can all be elected with 2)3 rds R state legislatures, like Andy Beshear

[wesmoorenerd]

Still Likely R, but good to see some improvement in this race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am predicting a Beto upset but most of my races are upsets

[Sir Mohamed]

#Abbottunder46

Abbott's totals are for sure underestimated, which is why I expect the margin be somewhat wider than the 6 pts. given here. Polls in TX tended to underestimate Dems before 2020 and I'm not sure we go back to this. I still rate this as Safe R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Safe R.