Could Ottawa County, MI flip Dem in the future?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Most Republican County in the state in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. In the more Democratic half of the states Counties in 2020. Romney + 34 in 2012, Trump + 30 in 2016, Trump + 21 in 2020 County. Not once voted Dem for President ever at this point.

[Schiff for Senate]

In the distant future and in a great year for Democrats, probably. For now though it’s Safe R.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Not once voted Dem for President ever at this point.

It voted for McClellan in 1864 at the very least, and quite possibly at some point(s) before.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Not once voted Dem for President ever at this point.

It voted for McClellan in 1864 at the very least, and quite possibly at some point(s) before.

Generally when people are talking about Counties that have never voted Dem ever, they are excluding elections during and before the civil war.

[Schiff for Senate]

Not once voted Dem for President ever at this point.

It voted for McClellan in 1864 at the very least, and quite possibly at some point(s) before.

Generally when people are talking about Counties that have never voted Dem ever, they are excluding elections during and before the civil war.

To be fair, "not once voted Dem for president" is a blanket statement and is different from "last voted Dem in 1864." Both statements are impressive, but it's not implied that the county voted Democratic in the past, even if something like 160+ years ago, when you say "not once voted Dem." Doesn't matter though - the main point is, the county is historically and ancestrally a GOP stronghold, but it's a suburb of Grand Rapids that's been moving to the left recently and where Trump's 2020 margin wasn't very impressive, so yes - in the future it will go blue, but it'll take a while. Definitely not before 2032, and it could only be in a national landslide for the Democrats.

[If my soul was made of stone]

At any rate, Ottawa County is clearly being subducted into the Grand Rapids blob, which is itself being subducted into Generic American Mid-Sized Metro culture at the expense of its very idiosyncratic sociocultural history (Ottawa included doubly so, of course, being the locus classicus of that Dutch Reformed milieu), which would on #Trendz paper point towards the increasing Democratic movement continuing. Some aspects of such regional culture can stick around in insidious ways, though, like Detroit outer-limits Livingston County's Klan fabric (or the same in my own state's Carroll County), and Grand Rapids isn't yet some cosmopolitan knowledge economy hub for millennials priced out of the major destinations or anything. Nor do trends last indefinitely, especially in this volatile era where every competitive state seems to be moving in five directions at once. It is a theoretical possibility, sure, but would require a lot to be shaken up.

[pbrower2a]

Growth of the Hispanic population.

The Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo SMSA (which includes Ottawa County) is the most populous one without a Spanish-language broadcaster over the air. That could easily change. The Hispanic population is growing, and it is only a matter of time. 

[MATTROSE94]

Not once voted Dem for President ever at this point.

It voted for McClellan in 1864 at the very least, and quite possibly at some point(s) before.

Generally when people are talking about Counties that have never voted Dem ever, they are excluding elections during and before the civil war.

To be fair, "not once voted Dem for president" is a blanket statement and is different from "last voted Dem in 1864." Both statements are impressive, but it's not implied that the county voted Democratic in the past, even if something like 160+ years ago, when you say "not once voted Dem." Doesn't matter though - the main point is, the county is historically and ancestrally a GOP stronghold, but it's a suburb of Grand Rapids that's been moving to the left recently and where Trump's 2020 margin wasn't very impressive, so yes - in the future it will go blue, but it'll take a while. Definitely not before 2032, and it could only be in a national landslide for the Democrats.

I agree. For me, not voted Democratic means went for other political parties in each election since 1828. 1864<1828.

[Schiff for Senate]

Not once voted Dem for President ever at this point.

It voted for McClellan in 1864 at the very least, and quite possibly at some point(s) before.

Generally when people are talking about Counties that have never voted Dem ever, they are excluding elections during and before the civil war.

To be fair, "not once voted Dem for president" is a blanket statement and is different from "last voted Dem in 1864." Both statements are impressive, but it's not implied that the county voted Democratic in the past, even if something like 160+ years ago, when you say "not once voted Dem." Doesn't matter though - the main point is, the county is historically and ancestrally a GOP stronghold, but it's a suburb of Grand Rapids that's been moving to the left recently and where Trump's 2020 margin wasn't very impressive, so yes - in the future it will go blue, but it'll take a while. Definitely not before 2032, and it could only be in a national landslide for the Democrats.

I agree. For me, not voted Democratic means went for other political parties in each election since 1828. 1864<1828.

Yeah, the Democrats' first presidential election really was 1828, with Andrew Jackson. However, if one said "has voted only Republican," that could reasonably mean it has voted Republican in every presidential election starting with 1856, and that Whigs or National Republicans don't necessarily count as 'Republicans' per se. Even if the OP had said that, however, it'd obviously be untrue because in 1864 it did not vote for the Republican (Abraham Lincoln).

[seskoog]

Not during the next 10 years unless there's a landslide, but it will definitely become less Republican over time. There's a good chance the 2024 D nominee will get over 40% in Ottawa County unless they lose MI statewide by 5+ points.