When will Republicans win a majority of the Latino vote?

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I think there's an outside possibility it could happen in 2024 if Democrats  up really bad.

[Xing]

I could see them getting close to or possibly hitting 40% if Democrats really tank in 2024. But a majority? That would either require an enormous realignment or the Democrats actually going the way of the whigs. Too many on this forum act as though Latinos are a monolith of “ackshully really conservative” voters who just haven’t “figured out” that they’re Republicans, which is about as silly as the narrative that rural white voters in Kentucky and West Virginia are actually left-wing and just haven’t figured it out yet or been convinced properly.

Never is a long time, so I’d say “later than 2036” should be an option.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

I could see them getting close to or possibly hitting 40% if Democrats really tank in 2024. By a majority? That would either require an enormous realignment or the Democrats actually going the way of the whigs. Too many on this forum act as though Latinos are a monolith of “ackshully really conservative” voters who just haven’t “figured out” that they’re Republicans, which is about as silly as the narrative that rural white voters in Kentucky and West Virginia are actually left-wing and just haven’t figured it out yet or been convinced properly.

Never is a long time, so I’d say “later than 2036” should be an option.

Edited the poll, I don't think Democrats would necessarily have to tank for that to be the case. 2004 was a pretty close election and W got north of 40% and the Latino vote is only more Republican in some places like South Texas then it was back then. Given current trends I don't think it's necessarily outside the realm of possibility, I've even seen some polling that shows Republicans with an outright lead with Latino voters going into the midterms.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'd love to know the poll results if this thread was created in 2006

[Skill and Chance]

I'd love to know the poll results if this thread was created in 2006

Well, it kind of looked like it was going to happen in 2008 before the financial crisis.

[MATTROSE94]

Definitely in 2022 and 2024. Cuban American and European Hispanic Americans already vote Republican with around 80 or 90% of the vote and have been majority Republican since either 1968, 1972, or 1980. Hispanic Americans from other Hispanic majority countries heavily trended Republican in 2020 and have really soured on the Biden Administration and the Democrats over COVID and the inflation stuff since 2021. I also think that the overturning of Roe v. Wade will help Republicans with Hispanic voters as well due to their connections to the Catholic Church and pro-family values.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'd love to know the poll results if this thread was created in 2006

TX 34 Congressman Sanchez agrees that hispanics will swing to the party of  MUH INCUMBENt PRESIDENT /s

[Frodo]

According to this article, it will be a while.  They can definitely win more than a third of Latinos, perhaps pushing up to 40%, but beyond that it is highly doubtful:

Are Latinos Really Realigning Toward Republicans?

[TML]

If you're talking about Latinos who consider themselves White, then yes, Republicans are probably already winning the majority of such voters.

If you're talking about Latinos who consider themselves people of color, then it would take a major realignment and/or a national Republican landslide (where they win at least two-thirds of all Electoral Votes, if not more) for this to happen.

[EastwoodS]

Republicans will probably start winning 40%+ latino voters for the most part from now on, 50%+? maybe in a incumbent GOP victory.

[Frodo]

Republicans will probably start winning 40%+ latino voters for the most part from now on, 50%+? maybe in a incumbent GOP victory.

Sure.  By the time that happens, you'd be winning 25-35% of the black vote like you used to in the New Deal era up until Barry Goldwater changed the GOP forever:


link

[EastwoodS]

Republicans will probably start winning 40%+ latino voters for the most part from now on, 50%+? maybe in a incumbent GOP victory.

Sure.  By the time that happens, you'd be winning 25-35% of the black vote like you used to in the New Deal era up until Barry Goldwater changed the GOP forever:


link

The GOP will start to win more of the back vote too. As the older African Americans pass and get replaced by younger blacks

[EastwoodS]

Republicans will probably start winning 40%+ latino voters for the most part from now on, 50%+? maybe in a incumbent GOP victory.

Sure.  By the time that happens, you'd be winning 25-35% of the black vote like you used to in the New Deal era up until Barry Goldwater changed the GOP forever:


link

It’s a total cope for anyone not to see what is going on with Hispanics. Democrats are on borrowed time

[Ferguson97]

It’s a total cope for anyone not to see what is going on with Hispanics. Democrats are on borrowed time

"The Democrats are fools for believing that demographics are destiny... when in fact, they are destiny for us!"

[Senator-elect Spark]

At some point in the 2030s.

[Frodo]

For the sake of argument, let us assume the Republican Party genuinely diversifies and starts attracting conservatives from all minority groups (especially in rural areas), particularly Latinos and African Americans  -would that make them more or less likely to support the John Lewis Voting Rights Act?  Or would it make no difference?