How predictable was each post-WWII POTUS 10 years before taking office?

[Sir Mohamed]

Thought about this for a while, each post-WWII POTUS exactly 10 years before they took office. Interesting that presidents a few decades ago were somewhat more predictable than recent ones he had.


Truman in 1935 - Nah, he was a freshman senator and considered "Boss Pendergast's man". Nobody at the time would have anticipated him ever reaching the presidency.

Eisenhower in 1943 - Actually not sure. As was a WWII general and men from high military ranks were elected before. But MacArthur or LeMay seemed more plausible at the time I think.

Kennedy in 1951 - Despite his age, this seemed plausible. He was already a congressman and his father a man of influence who made no secret of his wish for his eldest surviving son to become prez.

Johnson in 1953 - Definitely predictable. Was already in senate leadership and seen as a very effective senator. I think nobody in November 1953 would have been shocked to hear than he'll be prez at some point.

Nixon in 1959 - Possibly the most obvious of the entire list. Was already a 2nd term VP under a term-limited POTUS. He was just more likely to directly succeed Eisenhower via election in 1960 or even by succession before.

Ford in 1964 - Nah. While Ford was a known in the House and widely respected by his colleagues, he was never seen as WH material. If people in 1964 learned he'll be in the Oval some day, they most likely would have predicted it by succession from the speaker's chair. Ironically, the 25th Amendment didn't exist at the time and the Speaker of the House would have succeeded Nixon in 1974 without after Agnew's resignation.

Carter in 1967 - Even less likely than Ford. He was just elected state senator in GA. He wasn't even known outside his homestate in early 1976.

Reagan in 1971 - Somewhat predictable. He was already a reelected governor of the most populous state. That said, Reagan was seen as too extreme to be elected prez before the late 70s.

HW Bush in 1979 - Somewhat predictable as well, though not very likely. He was just a former CIA Director and congressman that lost 2 senate elections.

Clinton in 1983 - I'm being bold and say predictable. He just had his comeback as gov in AR, regaining his old job that he was voted out in 1980.

W Bush in 1991 - Unpredictable. His business activities were mostly a failure and Jeb was seen as the Bush son with more potential.

Obama in 1999 - Unimaginable. A black state senator from IL with the middle name Hussein? People in 1999 would have laughed you off for such a prediction.

Trump in 2007 - Pretty much unthinkable, too. While Trump was a known for decades, he was generally seen as clown and not a serious candidate for the highest office in the land.

Biden in 2011 - Somewhat predictable since he was already VP. That said, hardly anyone expected him to run 2016 due to his age. Most people would have predicted him to step in for Obama for some reason, I think.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Johnson and Nixon are the most obviously probable. Kennedy and Clinton, maybe. I don't think Reagan was seen as a serious possibility for President until 1976.

As for Biden? After two disastrous presidential runs? Ehh....probably not unless as you said Obama died in office (most likely cause for him: assassination). Especially with HRC being more likely as the Dem nominee and yeah, the age thing.