NH- UNH DeSantis Leads Trump DeSantis 39% Trump 37% Pence 9%

[Skill and Chance]

Trump now needs to give DeSantis the "Pence" treatment.

I think that would hurt Trump because he has nothing to attack him on. It'd come across as Trump attacking a "Real American" or whatever because DeSantis is doing more to further the Republican brand than Trump is.

If DeSantis leaves Florida abortion law at 15 weeks, Trump could ironically attack him from the right for not doing a total ban as the president who got Roe v. Wade overturned.

[DaleCooper]

Trump now needs to give DeSantis the "Pence" treatment.

I think that would hurt Trump because he has nothing to attack him on. It'd come across as Trump attacking a "Real American" or whatever because DeSantis is doing more to further the Republican brand than Trump is.

If DeSantis leaves Florida abortion law at 15 weeks, Trump could ironically attack him from the right for not doing a total ban as the president who got Roe v. Wade overturned.

Word on the street is that Trump doesn't like the overturn of Roe v. Wade. Plus, a big part of the reason Trump won the Republican primary in 2016 is because he focused on "real issues" rather than the evangelical crap that always dominates their primaries. If Trump goes full Moral Majority in the primary, that could hurt him.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump now needs to give DeSantis the "Pence" treatment.

I think that would hurt Trump because he has nothing to attack him on. It'd come across as Trump attacking a "Real American" or whatever because DeSantis is doing more to further the Republican brand than Trump is.

If DeSantis leaves Florida abortion law at 15 weeks, Trump could ironically attack him from the right for not doing a total ban as the president who got Roe v. Wade overturned.

Word on the street is that Trump doesn't like the overturn of Roe v. Wade. Plus, a big part of the reason Trump won the Republican primary in 2016 is because he focused on "real issues" rather than the evangelical crap that always dominates their primaries. If Trump goes full Moral Majority in the primary, that could hurt him.

Trump attacking DeSantis from the right on abortion would be the ultimate test of whether people vote for personality vs. issues.  Logically, the DeSantis base voters would be the total ban constituency and the Trump base would include almost everyone pro-choice in the modern GOP plus moderately pro-life people who think a 15 week law is good and well.

[Del Tachi]

I told y'all it was happening LOL

This is a very good poll for DeSantis.  Primary electorates in early states are more exposed to candidates and value their participation more, even at this early stage in the process.  That DeSantis gains the more people know about him/politics in general is a very bad signal for Trump.     

If you just look at the national and statewide polling, Trump is in a much less secure position now than Hillary Clinton was at the same point in 2014.  Clinton led the "field" by 50 points with no clear "runner-up" on her heels; Trump is neck-and-neck with DeSantis among voters who have heard of them both. 

Thinking Trump would win the 2024 Republican primary with DPRK-like margins was always liberal wishcasting.  DeSantis will beat Trump in a 1-vs-1 primary, I'm increasingly confident.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I told y'all it was happening LOL

This is a very good poll for DeSantis.  Primary electorates in early states are more exposed to candidates and value their participation more, even at this early stage in the process.  That DeSantis gains the more people know about him/politics in general is a very bad signal for Trump.      

If you just look at the national and statewide polling, Trump is in a much less secure position now than Hillary Clinton was at the same point in 2014.  Clinton led the "field" by 50 points with no clear "runner-up" on her heels; Trump is neck-and-neck with DeSantis among voters who have heard of them both.  

Thinking Trump would win the 2024 Republican primary with DPRK-like margins was always liberal wishcasting.  DeSantis will beat Trump in a 1-vs-1 primary, I'm increasingly confident.    

He's lead is within the MOE c'mon, over Biden in NH