NH- UNH DeSantis Leads Trump DeSantis 39% Trump 37% Pence 9%

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

DeSantis 39%
Trump 37%
Pence 9%
Haley 6%
Pompeo 1%
Noem 1%
Cruz 1%
Other 3%
Don't know 3%

2nd choice
Desantis 30%
Trump: 24%
Haley 7%
Cruz 5%
Pompeo 3%
Pence 3%

https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/697/

I believe this is the first poll to show Trump losing (although within the margin of error) a 2024 early state

[TPIG]

Makes your heart flutter, doesn't it? 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Mega Mega Based

[WV222]

The DeSantis-Trump war to about to kick off

[Inmate Trump]

The GOP would be shooting themselves in the foot if they nominate Trump again.

DeSantis (at this stage) would be a clear frontrunner in the general election while Trump would make it a toss up.

[Devils30]

The GOP would be shooting themselves in the foot if they nominate Trump again.

DeSantis (at this stage) would be a clear frontrunner in the general election while Trump would make it a toss up.

Yep- DeSantis is savvy enough to appeal to both far right conservatives and moderates. Calling him authoritarian will not work for Dems as it would against Trump.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

This might be the poll that pushed Trump to announce a run this summer.

[MT Treasurer]

But I was told by the vast majority of Democrats and "green" avatars on this board that the GOP was a mindless personality cult and that DeSantis had zero chance at even coming close to Trump. Surely these posters have their finger on the pulse of the GOP primary electorate.

[President Johnson]

Still not buying it. DeSantis will tank once Trump comes out forcefully and attacks him.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Now that is a shocker. I do think that DeSantis sinks once Trump jumps in the GOP primary. He'd be the immediate front-runner.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

[Inmate Trump]

But I was told by the vast majority of Democrats and "green" avatars on this board that the GOP was a mindless personality cult and that DeSantis had zero chance at even coming close to Trump. Surely these posters have their finger on the pulse of the GOP primary electorate.

You’re saying Trump doesn’t have a cult-like following? The most obvious crook and swindler to ever become president and you guys swoon over him, totally blinded to open treachery even. Seems like a cult.

[Pericles]

Please, please let this happen.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

Like I've said time and time again, in a Trump-DeSantis primary, Trump would DOMINATE with younger, poorer and more populist voters, as well as likely voters which only started voting Republican in the last few cycles.
As well as the "I like Trump's policies but hate him" voters, DeSantis would get most of the donor base of wealthy tea party activists, as well as the country club Republicans.

No one in the GOP has the strength with poor people as much as Trump does, ironically he's viewed as "one of them" with a lot of not-well off people, partly because of how he acts. Trump's personality might be a turnoff for donors and suburbanites, but it's a big reason why he's popular to a lot of people too.

In 2016-terms, DeSantis would get the Rubio vote, as well as maybe most of the Kasich vote if never-Trumpers line up behind him, but he's fundamentally trying to appeal to the Cruz voters. The ideologically conservative tea party FOX boomer voters.

[Skill and Chance]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

The business conservatives hung on stronger than anybody would have expected back in 2017.  This might be their revenge.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

The business conservatives hung on stronger than anybody would have expected back in 2017.  This might be their revenge.

The business conservatives backing DeSantis is exactly why I don't support him over Trump. And I feel like if the establishment gets behind DeSantis then it could backfire on him because the base would not trust that.

[Sir Mohamed]

Need more polls for confirmation. That said, I would no longer dismiss this, as I did until a few months ago. It's very possible Mr. Trump's grip over the GOP is vanishing. Now, this doesn't mean it gets more sane or any better. DeSantis may be worse because he'd be more disciplined in enacting their bad policies.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump now needs to give DeSantis the "Pence" treatment.

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

The other interesting one is this:

conservative radio listener:
DeSantis 54%
Trump 34%
Haley 8%

Fox New viewer:
DeSantis 46%
Trump 32%
Pence 8%

local NH news viewer:
DeSantis 41%
Trump 27%
Pence 15%

MSNBC viewer:
Pence 48%
Trump 19%
DeSantis 13%

CNN viewer:
Pence 36%
DeSantis 29%
Haley 12%
Trump 4%

I guess Trump must be beating DeSantis by a lot amongst those who don't follow any of those sources.  Otherwise, the topline #s wouldn't add up.

[Agafin]

No one should bedismissing these polls after what happened in the Georgia GOP primaries. Trump is still obviously the favorite but I don't think he's the insurmontable titan he was once among GOP voters.

[Skill and Chance]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

The other interesting one is this:

conservative radio listener:
DeSantis 54%
Trump 34%
Haley 8%

Fox New viewer:
DeSantis 46%
Trump 32%
Pence 8%

local NH news viewer:
DeSantis 41%
Trump 27%
Pence 15%

MSNBC viewer:
Pence 48%
Trump 19%
DeSantis 13%

CNN viewer:
Pence 36%
DeSantis 29%
Haley 12%
Trump 4%

I guess Trump must be beating DeSantis by a lot amongst those who don't follow any of those sources.  Otherwise, the topline #s wouldn't add up.

It looks like DeSantis has most of the Cruz 2016 coalition+Rubio/Bush 2016+the part of Kasich 2016 that hasn't flipped Dem.

[Skill and Chance]

Need more polls for confirmation. That said, I would no longer dismiss this, as I did until a few months ago. It's very possible Mr. Trump's grip over the GOP is vanishing. Now, this doesn't mean it gets more sane or any better. DeSantis may be worse because he'd be more disciplined in enacting their bad policies.

With DeSantis, you know you won't get the weird extrajudicial stuff in December/January if the election is close because the pro-business wing won't stand for it.  With Trump, you are rolling the dice on even crazier stuff happening next time. 

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Crosstabs on page 11…

Income less than $45,000:
Trump 71%
DeSantis 14%

Income over $150,000:
DeSantis 88%
Trump 6%

That is…quite something.

The other interesting one is this:

conservative radio listener:
DeSantis 54%
Trump 34%
Haley 8%

Fox New viewer:
DeSantis 46%
Trump 32%
Pence 8%

local NH news viewer:
DeSantis 41%
Trump 27%
Pence 15%

MSNBC viewer:
Pence 48%
Trump 19%
DeSantis 13%

CNN viewer:
Pence 36%
DeSantis 29%
Haley 12%
Trump 4%

I guess Trump must be beating DeSantis by a lot amongst those who don't follow any of those sources.  Otherwise, the topline #s wouldn't add up.

It looks like DeSantis has most of the Cruz 2016 coalition+Rubio/Bush 2016+the part of Kasich 2016 that hasn't flipped Dem.

Never Trumpers?

[DaleCooper]

But I was told by the vast majority of Democrats and "green" avatars on this board that the GOP was a mindless personality cult and that DeSantis had zero chance at even coming close to Trump. Surely these posters have their finger on the pulse of the GOP primary electorate.

It comes down to whether or not the poor GOP voters learn to like DeSantis or if they just vote on the name recognition/personality.

It's also worth noting that if Pence drops out early, and I suspect he will, his supporters will likely not go to Trump.

[DaleCooper]

Trump now needs to give DeSantis the "Pence" treatment.

I think that would hurt Trump because he has nothing to attack him on. It'd come across as Trump attacking a "Real American" or whatever because DeSantis is doing more to further the Republican brand than Trump is.