My Forecast Probability Models

[Chips]

Nate Silver released his model and...there are some issues many have noticed. The main one I noticed is that it tilts a bit toward favoring incumbents.

Here's my estimated probabilities. I'm only doing competitive/somewhat competitive races. House races are a whole other beast I'll get to some other time.

Governor probabilities:

WI: R - 60%
KS: R - 80%
NV: R - 52%
AZ: R - 65%
GA: R - 70%
PA: D - 52%
MI: D - 55%
OR: D - 70%
NM: D - 65%
ME: D - 60%
MN: D - 75%
CT: D - 90%

Senate probabilities:

NC: R - 85%
WI: R - 70%
GA: R - 55%
NV: R - 60%
AZ: R - 52%
PA: D - 52%
CO: D - 85%
NH: D - 65%
WA: D - 90%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers is leading Michaels 48/40 so WI going R is very low

[hyouzel the predictor]

Awesome! How did you calculate these percentages?