The Gathering Storm, Redux - Gameplay Thread (WW2 - Early 1940)

[Lumine]

EVENT

Intrigue in Austria

Lurid tales of shadowy battles being fought across Vienna,
Schuschnigg and Fey join forces, rival Starhemberg sacked from office,
President Fey makes surprise referendum anouncement on the future of Austria

FOR: ALL PLAYERS

Rocked by uncertainty and tension after the assassination of President Engelbert Dollfuss, the Republic of Austria has seemingly become the epicenter of intrigue and espionage in Europe, the city of Vienna periodically waking up to political scandals, disappearances, corpses being found floating in the Danube, and unending rumors of every kind. The investigation into Dollfuss' murder, further disrupted by publications from foreign media placing blame on foreign nations over the crime - with Germany in particular being targeted, followed next by the Soviet Union -, has descended into near anarchy as the local secret police raids often result in the arrest and release of foreign operatives also investigating the murder, to the quiet embarrassment of the diplomatic community. This while foreign dignitaries and leaders have continued to visit the capital, with Duce Mussolini doing so last year and being recently followed by Chancellor Hugenberg.

In this context, the leading triumvirate behind the Austrofascist regime of the Fatherland Front has not escaped intrigue and dissent, as the triumvirs' battle for influence has steadily degenerated in a war of survival. Despite the leading role eluding him in the aftermath of the assassination, Prince Starhemberg was believed to have significantly grown in power during the early part of year, which his internal opponents increasingly accusing the Prince of using underhanded or even violent methods to expand his influence. This, in turn, led President Fey and fellow triumvir Kurt Schuschnigg to joint forces against a rising threat, culminating on a series of secretive meetings and an apparent accord. Blindsided by the Fey-Schuschnigg pact, Starhemberg was shocked by being suddenly and brutally dismissed from office by a majority of the Cabinet. Despite his enormous influence, the Prince appeared to have made too many enemies, being unable to countermand the order at the key moment.

What followed next, however, proved to be even more surprising. To the general shock and surprise not just of the population, but of large parts of the Fatherland Front itself, President Fey made a sudden radio broadcast shortly after Starhemberg's dismissal. Citing repeated concerns over the future and sovereignty of the nation, and citing a previous, post-Versailles refusal to allow the then nascent Republic of Austria to decide on its future, Fey stated that it was time to "once and for all", settle the question of Austro-German relations for good. In effect, Fey announced that a referendum would be held in three month's time, allowing the Austrian electorate - or, at least, those not previously banned from voting due to their opposition to Dollfuss - to vote between continued independence under the umbrella of international protection, or a formal union with the German Reich with domestic autonomy.

The news has stunned Vienna and is likely to have immediate consequences across the borders of the Republic. Within the government itself, Minister Schuschnigg is said to have been blindsided by the announcement as well, as is rumored to have threatened resignation should President Fey not endorse of Austrian independence and wield the party machine to guarantee a result. In the meantime, the dismissed Prince Starhemberg announced his utter opposition to the referendum, and his followers, Fatherland Front dissidents, and other groups - including traditionalist Catholic organizations - have already held protests denouncing the government.

[Lumine]

The Tsardom of Bulgaria and the Kingdom of Yugoslavia hereby agree to a one month humanitarian ceasefire to allow for the peaceful evacuation of Bosnian refugees to Bulgarian territory. The parties to this agreement forswear offensive action against the other for the duration of this ceasefire.

i) Current front lines will be maintained during the ceasefire.

ii) Bulgaria will allow the delivery of humanitarian shipments to the city of Skopje, however, military shipments will not be permitted to enter the city. Bulgarian customs officials will reserve the right to inspect shipments to ensure compliance. Yugoslavian officials in Skopje will also pledge to protect the wellbeing of the civilians of Skopje, and will ensure humanitarian shipments designated for civilian use are appropriated correctly.

iii) The city of Dimitrovgrad, and Nova Bardo on the Bulgarian side will serve as the primary transfer point for Bosnian refugees out of Yugoslavia. Yugoslavian, Bulgarian, and Turkish customs officials will work in tandem to process these refugees, and Bulgaria will assume responsibility for travel once they cross into Bulgarian-held territory.

x Tsar Boris III

x Milan Nedic, Regent of Yugoslavia

[Lumine]

German-Lithuanian Treaty

- A referendum will be held in 1937 regarding the status of the territory of Memel and whether it should stay as a part of Lithuania or rejoin Germany.
- The independence of Lithuania is guaranteed by Germany.
- Lithuania will be financially compensated and allowed to use the port duty free should Memel vote to rejoin Germany.
- Lithuania will be helped to train, modernize and expand its army by Germany.

X Alfred Hugenberg, Chancellor of Germany

x Antanas Smetona, President of Lithuania

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Royal drama deepens in the UK!

US newspapers leak supposed British plans for forced abdication,
Pro-King press in the UK attacks Chamberlain, Tories close ranks,
Edward VIII remains silent, Parliament debates marriage issue

FOR: BRITISH EMPIRE AND COMMONWEALTH

Although the drama surrounding King Edward VIII's intention to marry American socialité Wallis Warfield - formerly Simpson - had seemingly lost some urgency due to the 1936 General Election taking on a temporarily larger role, the issue was by no means solved. No longer having a sympathetic PM in place with MacDonald's defeat - and the former PM's ill-health preventing him from serving as Leader of the Opposition -, the King maintain a stoic silence over the first half of the year, reportedly only making it clear that his intention to marry Ms. Warfield remained steadfast. Suspicions that the marriage - which is still bitterly opposed by the Church of England and a large part of the nation - issue was being debated at the highest level in Cabinet and within the Commonwealth were proven right by an explosive series of news stories from the Hearst Press in the United Stated.

According to undisclosed sources, the Hearst Press has claimed that Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain is determined to force King Edward to abdicate his throne, and has been trying to influence the Commonwealth in that direction. On the opposite side, so the source alleges, stand both the Union of South Africa and the Dominion of Canada, which are believed to have been trying to push for a compromise solution that respects the monarch's wishes. If these revelations were already highly read in America, they proved to be truly explosive on the other side of the Atlantic, with the British press rapidly echoing the claims made by Hearst and taking firm sides on the dispute. And whereas pro-establishment newspapers including The Times and The Daily Telegraph have rapidly come out in defense of Mr. Chamberlain, the most popular newspapers, the Daily Express and the Daily Mail - led by Lords Beaverbrook and Rothemere -, have attacked the Prime Minister and expressed their firm support for the monarch.

As a result, the so-called "marriage crisis" has now turned into an "abdication crisis", sparking an intense debate on whether Mr. Chamberlain's alleged actions are in the right. Whereas the bulk of the Conservative Party has closed ranks behind the PM, Mr. Winston Churchill, the First Lord of the Admiralty, and Duff Cooper, the War Secretary, are said to be considering resignation should Chamberlain attempt to topple the King. In Parliament, only the Labour Party has taken a firm stand against the King's marriage, with the Progressives, the Communists and the British Union of Fascists all expressing various levels of support. However the issue develops, it is clear that Britain is in for a tense resolution to what is now a political crisis.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Civil war and insurgency in Croatia!

Ustashe assassination attempt on Vladko Macek leads to civil war,
Italian forces sweep into Zagreb, arrest Macek and HSS leadership,
Weakened, HSS forces fall back and start anti-Italian, anti-Ustashe insurgency

FOR: ITALY

On the surface, Italian efforts to expand its hold on the Balkans had been remarkably successful. Despite the escape of King Zog into Belgrade - with his entourage and Albania's gold reserves - and his subsequent flight to an undisclosed nation that offered permanent asylum, and the continued resistance of isolated militias in Albanian's mountains, the occupation of the country was swift. Against either indifference or only muted opposition, the pro-Italian Shefqet Verlaci became premier and Victor Emmanuel III was proclaimed King of Albania, further binding the nation into Italian control whilst most of Giovanni Messe's occupation force returned to the mainland. However, it was the already tense Croatia which flared up next. Although efforts to get opposing leaders Macek and Pavelic to agree to a meeting under compromise terms suggested by Rome made some progress, all hope of an arrangement was broken when Vladko Macek was shot while giving a speech in Zagreb, narrowly avoiding death.

The arrest of the would-be assassins revealed that they were members of the Ustashe, and the HSS supported government in Zagreb wasted no time in branding Pavelic a traitor to Croatia. Pavelic, for his part, openly blamed Belgrade - and then Macek himself - for staging a fake assassination attempt to blemish his reputation, a claim that was, for the most part, disbelieved in Croatia proper. Unable to arrest the heavily guarded Pavelic on his Dalmatian stronghold, the crisis rapidly degenerated into civil war as both men's armed forces and militias started fighting each other for control over the major cities and transport routes, resulting in heavy casualties for the HSS and the Ustashe, as well multiple casualties for the Italian garrison troops, often unwittingly attacked by both sides. For Rome, this was unacceptable. A few days after the breakout of hostilities, Italian armored columns swept into Zagreb and stormed the Presidential Palace, arresting Macek and most of his Cabinet.

With Italy formally charging Macek of collaboration with Belgrade, the stage appeared to be set for the elevation of Pavelic into power, with the Ustashe leader wasting no time in flying to Zagreb to - against what appeared to be hostile crowds - proclaim himself the sole legitimate leader of the new, Sovereign State of Croatia, promising to establish a fascist state in the Italian mold and "to face the Serbian threat". The arrest of Macek and the Italian intervention has undoubtedly crippled the HSS and prevented it from fighting a full-scale civil war as many of its leaders have advocated only non-violent or symbolic resistance, but HSS aligned militias have rapidly withdrawn back into rural areas and vowed to maintain the struggle. In a clandestine manifesto, surviving HSS minister Bozidar Magovac has denounced a supposed "Italian betrayal" and called Pavelic a "lifeless puppet", urging Croatia to resist to preserve its independence. Although such an insurgency remains young, there have accounts of multiple militia attacks against Ustashe and/or Italian forces outside the cities.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Iraq and Iran nationalize oil industries!

Defying Britain, Teheran and Baghdad nationalize AIOC and IPC,
Failed ultimatum leads to aerial and land battles in Iraq, British forces under siege,
Chamberlain under pressure to intervene and declare war on Eurasian Alliance

FOR: ALL PLAYERS

Despite recent agreements being signed between Iraq, Iran and Britain, including the 1930 Anglo-Iraqi Treaty - which retained British military access to Iraq - and a renegotiation of terms for oil exploitation in Iran - which retained British control over its oil industry -, dissatisfaction with British influence and/or rule was clear for Reza Shah and King Faisal. Both men, who were nonetheless usually cautious when it came to dealing with London, found their respective hands greatly strengthened following the growth and rise of the Ankara-led Eurasian Alliance, enabling them to better prepare to curb British control over the Middle East whilst the Empire remained busy elsewhere. Years and months of preparations thus came to a climax during the latter half of 1937, in a distinctly explosive fashion. Having previously demanded a greater participation in the oil industry, Iran and Iraq saw multiple, large-scale anti-British protests across the year, demanding outright nationalization of the oil companies, an escalation which British businessmen alleged was directly spearheaded by Faisal and Reza.

And then they struck. Both the Iranian and Iraqi parliaments quickly introduced bills nationalizing the Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC) and the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), passing them unanimously and with barely any debate. And whilst their respective armed forces - backed by ecstatic, nationalist crowds - mobilized to take control of the drilling sites by force if needed, Faisal and the Iraqi government delivered a swift ultimatum to Air Vice Marshal Courtney, head of the British Forces in Iraq. Describing the Anglo-Iraqi treaty "null and void" due to a need to secure Iraqi sovereignty, Courtney was told to evacuate Iraq and withdraw back to Palestine, for which he was offered safe passage. Proudly refusing the offer, Courtney rapidly saw him facing a war situation as the Iraqi army moved against RAF Habbaniya and RAF Station Shaibah, the two British military bases in the region. Attempts to storm them were brushed aside by the local garrisons against high Iraqi casualties, resulting in both being besieged.

Attempts by the RAF to fly sorties to crush the invading forces witnessed, to their surprise, the intervention of the Turkish Air Force - the largest in the region - in support of Iraq, leading to large-scale aerial battles in the skies of Baghdad. Though the Turkish pilots acquitted themselves well, the British won the first few skirmishes, having to back down to the sheer inferiority in numbers. In the aftermath, Air Vice Marshal Courtney has immediately and urgently asked London for reinforcements. Despite the relative success of Iranian and Iraqi efforts in taking control over the oil supply, similar efforts to lobby businessmen to help de-escalate the crisis backfired severely, resulting in the same businessmen passionately lobby London to declare war and mobilize its forces to reoccupy the oil fields, so as to no lose their enormous investments in both nations. In Britain itself, though distracted by the "abdication crisis", newspapers have started baying for blood, targeting Turkish President Atatürk directly and calling for war against Ankara.

The news come at a particularly tense moment in the region, with Palestine still rocked by pro-Arab riots, Egypt have demanded renegotiation of its treaties with the UK, and Syria having just gained independence from the France.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Crisis in Austria!

Starhemberg launches coup in Vienna, fails to arrest President,
Citing an "international conspiracy", Fey invites German troops,
Reichswehr crosses the border, Starhemberg arrested, Schuschnigg flees to Italy

FOR: ALL PLAYERS

The announcement of the referendum on a potential union with the German Reich, rather than lower tensions across the Federal State of Austria, further polarized the nation. Whereas normally the public opposition consisted on those in favor or against the Dollfuss regime, and the private one on Austria's potential foreign alignment, the notion of a referendum - and unity with Berlin - shifted the public debate into independence or unification, with interesting consequences. President Fey was perceived to have immediately lost standing within the Fatherland Front itself, only for him to gain popularity with Austrians who, regardless of their stance on Dollfuss, supported unification either to end the uncertainty for good or out of sincere belief in the so-called Anschluss. The government, foreign diplomats and international experts would reach no consensus in the following weeks regarding the result of a referendum - depending on whether it would be reasonably fair -,with disparate claims ranging from astonishing majorities either against or in favor of it.

Further muddling the waters were international warnings or outright threats as well as a passionate speech by Benito Mussolini, all of which appeared to have an effect (the former seemingly increasing support for Fey's actions, the latter decreasing it). And though the President was yet to formally express support for the Anschluss on the eve of the campaign starting, enough of his rivals had decided their "accidental leader" was too beholden to Berlin, and had to go. The following morning, only a few days before the referendum was scheduled to be held, intense movement was detected in Vienna and all the other main Austrian towns, with Heimwehr militias - thus far reduced to police work after being integrated in the Fatherland Front - taking the lead in trying to secure streets, buildings and arrest key members of the government. A coup was in place, as an undelivered radio broadcast by the would-be new President, Prince Starhemberg, was to have confirmed.

Why the Starhemberg putsch failed remains a matter of intense speculation given the limited information available. Some believe the coup was delayed too much due to Kurt Schuschnigg's alleged stalling, taking weeks before deciding to join the effort on the last minute and thus disrupting already existing planning with his own demands. Others believe that Starhemberg relied excessively on the Heimwehr instead of the Army, or that he did not realize that he was just as polarizing - if not more - than Fey on account of his behavior. For others, it was just plain bad luck. Whichever the case, success at capturing several key buildings in Vienna failed to yield the arrest of President Fey or the capture of the radio stations, enabling the government to call for support. By the end of day, the Austrian armed forces, led by the new Chief of the General Staff, General Franz Böhme, stormed Vienna and crushed the Heimwehr after fierce infighting, resulting in hundreds of casualties.

With the capital secured but the coup not fully put down, President Fey delivered a speech by radio, blaming the seemingly failed coup on a so-called "international conspiracy" for trying to disrupt "Austrian sovereignty" and prevent the referendum. Citing fears over future "foreign intervention" and further attempts to topple the government, Fey formally requested the entry of German troops into Austria to protect the country and enable the referendum to take place on schedule. Immediately after, German divisions stationed on the Austrian border entered the country, sparking instant domestic reactions. Anecdotal evidence suggests the Reichswehr's expeditionary corps immediate entry has been well received and/or cheered by pro-German crowds, coupled with reports of isolated acts of defiance or disapproval, and attempts at resistance by pro-Starhemberg militias.

Though the situation remains very much fluid, Kurt Schuschnigg has been seen crossing the Italian border seeking refuge, and Prince Starhemberg is said to have been arrested in Vienna. General Graziani, head of the Italian forces stationed in the capital, has allegedly returned to barracks rather than risk a gunfight with the motorized German units that have entered the city, cementing the coup's apparent failure. With the international reaction yet to be seen, the referendum, should it still be held in light of the German entry into Vienna, remains formally scheduled to take place in less than two weeks.

[Lumine]

End of 1937

In the News:

TIME PERSON OF THE YEAR: Emil Fey

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE: Édouard Daladier

Anschluss: the Austro-German Union

Despite last minute grumblings, Fey pushes referendum through,
Supervised by Spanish observers, Austria votes for the Anschluss by 62%,
Fey, ennobled by Hugenberg, becomes Reichskommissar of new Länder

The immediate aftermath of the failed coup d’etat attempted led by Prince Starhemberg in Vienna and the entry of the Reichswehr into Austria raised the fears of another European-wide conflict, driving the long-running crisis to what many considered to be its ultimate climax. Tense weeks of negotiations, speeches and intrigue ensued, coupled with dramatic warnings from Rome and Paris demanding an immediate withdrawal by the Reichswehr. Cryptically – for the rest of the world -, Chancellor Hugenberg was later to declare a supposed victory and order said withdrawal, an act which, though immediately perceived as a German defeat over their latest gamble, proved to be the unexpected prelude to triumph. Despite the removal of the German troops, President Fey’s post-coup purge solidified his previously shaky hold over the Austrian state, and the referendum proceeded with only minor timing delays.

Said delays, to the surprise of many, appeared to be geared towards the arrival of a team of international observers to guarantee the validity of the vote, all of them sent directly from Madrid at the behest of Prime Minister Alejandro Lerroux. With no further (public) complaints from either Daladier or Mussolini, and aside from a marked escalation in rhetoric by London – whose domestic results are best discussed elsewhere -, the campaign thus followed. By all accounts, it was a relatively peaceful affair, with President Fey confirming previous suspicions by announcing his public support for the so-called Anschluss, the Austro-German Union. Several powerful interest groups slowly came out in support of it as well, though the opposition would complain to the international press that government restrictions made it next to impossible to campaign fairly.

The only potentially dramatic event – near the end of the campaign – came within Vienna itself, as a particularly nasty rumor began to develop surrounding President Dollfuss’ assassination back in 1935. Among other allegations, the rumor claimed the President had been killed not by the Soviet Union, but by Germany, a similar allegation to that issued by a number of Swiss newspapers months ago. Although the story failed to pick nationwide steam due to a subsequent purge of opposition newspapers in Vienna by the Austrian police and the seemingly speculative nature of the facts, it left a sour taste in many voters, causing not insignificant embarrassment for Fey as his final campaign appearances appeared to be more contained and carefully handled.

On election day proper, the Spanish observers quickly gained a reputation for remarkable stubbornness and toughness, denouncing and cracking down on the slightest sign of potential irregularities and demanding re-votes in small, isolated areas in which local machines – some of them for, some against the Anschluss -  seemingly produced suspiciously lopsided results. When the votes were accounted, President Fey was able to declare a victory for the YES side – YES to the Anschluss – by a 63% to 37% margin, a result later confirmed by the Spanish observers through their own private records. Whilst the opposition to Fey has alternated between denouncing fraud – despite the Spanish guarantees – and/or arguing the result should be read as a rebuke in light of limited campaign for the NO side, the government announced its intention to comply.

Within a few hours, barriers at the Austro-German border were lifted as German Reichswehr and Austrian Bundersheer soldiers fraternized with each other. Following a few weeks of implementation, the Federal State of Austria was declared extinct on December 1st, 1937, resulting in its inclusion into the German Reich as its newest Länder (German Austria). President Fey, now Graf Emil von Fey after the implementation of a law in the Imperial Diet restoring titles of nobility, became Reichskommissar of German Austria, second only to Vice Chancellor von Papen – himself Reichskommissar of Prussia since 1932 – in terms of territorial control.

In general terms, international response has been muted while observers have pronounced the Anschluss as a major strategic victory for Germany. While claims of a supposed international arrangement – levied by Starhemberg supporters in exile – to allow for the referendum to take place remain unsubstantiated, the same observers note with interest that Berlin seemingly – and quietly dropped - plans for a similar referendum to take place in the city of Memel.

1937 Canadian General Election

Despite rising fears of war, Bennett’s gamble succeeds,
PM wins third consecutive majority, Liberals lose heavily but hold onto Québec,
National Party defectors caught off guard, Social Credit rises

Now seven years in office, Canadian Prime Minister R. B. Bennett could be reasonably satisfied that the exceedingly grim outlook of his first few years in office had seemingly changed. Having survived his first re-election thanks to good timing, Bennett had presided over a rapidly recovering economy whilst ramping up social expenditure and adopting a Keynesian approach to economics, enabling to increasingly transform the Conservatives into a more interventionist force whilst leaving his Liberal foes with little room to maneuver. Such political movement, however skillful, was not without a price. The revolt from the old guard of fiscal conservative MP’s, led by former minister Earl Lawson, had robbed Bennett of his majority, raising the prospect of a minority parliament until 1939. Bennett, trusting the increasingly popularity of his government, repeated the same trick used to forestall a split back in 34’: call a snap General Election.

This time the damage had already been done and the Conservative defectors, now the National Party, were not to return, but they were also caught with no time to organize to a national level. The first stage of the campaign was more or less a triumph for the once hated Bennett, who under the slogan “Better Schools, Safer Cities, More Jobs” ran across the nation energetically championing his record as Ernest Lapointe’s Liberals – with Lapointe succeeding Mackenzie King after his resignation - struggled to find a proper avenue of attack, leaving the Social Credit Party and the Co-operative Commonwealth (CCF) to lead the rhetorical struggle on the PM as being, among other things, “too elitist” to lead the nation any further. What was to be a projected landslide for Bennett only started to change as tensions in Europe rose higher and higher, drawing up the prospect of a war over Austria.

Already damaged by association by Neville Chamberlain’s hardline stance against Germany – which many thought made war likelier -, Bennett’s extensive efforts at rearming Canada became the object of the Liberal campaign, which focused on the possibility of war and, in a direct appeal to its Québec base of support, the need to stay away from it. Though such attacks weren’t enough on by themselves to cripple Bennett, they did wound him, as the public appear to shy away from military expansion and rearmament in favor of social programs. When the dust settled, Bennett had won the largest Conservative majority in almost two decades and crushed the challenge to his right, making gains across the nation which were only mildly tempered by loses in Québec. Lapointe, though clearly defeated – resulting in his resignation as Leader of the Opposition -, managed to prevent a debacle and hold onto the Qúebec stronghold, from which the majority of surviving Liberal MP’s now come from.

As the National Party failed to retain the seats of almost all defectors – with only Earl Lawson surviving in York South after countless recounts -, it was Social Credit and the CCF who profited the most, the former by expanding its appeal on Alberta by gaining seats, the latter by drawing more votes away from the Liberals. Despite being hurt by the international crises, Bennett now stands ever closer to remaking the Conservative Party with another five year mandate, which, should he serve out until the end, would make him one of Canada’s longest serving PM’s.

1937 Canadian General Election:

Party		Votes (%)		Seats
Conservative Party		45% (+2)		143 (+14)
Liberal Party		34% (-3)		79 (-16)
Social Credit Party		6% (+3)		14 (-7)
Co-operative Commonwealth		10% (+1)		12 (+2)
National Party		3% (NEW)		1 (+1)
Others		2%		3 (-1)
Total				252 MP's

Incoming Prime Minister:
R. B. Bennett (Conservative)

Incoming Government:
Conservative Majority (34 Seats)

Moscow: The Ides of March

Following Yezhov’s assassination, NKVD and military join forces,
Kirov captured and executed after show trial, Stalinists in disarray,
Tukhachevsky and Yagoda seize power, USSR on verge of civil war

If Sergei Kirov was seen by many as a compromise choice for Acting General Secretary, this may have come as news to him. Determined to seize power, and perhaps more decisively, to do so without any help other than from his most loyal cadre of Leningrad supporters – for not even the surviving Stalinists were called to assist -, Kirov wasted little time in launching a blistering speech reminiscent of Stalin’s last address to the party. In it, Kirov denounced a major Trotskyist conspiracy as being behind Stalin’s apparent murder, calling on rivals Yezhov, Yagoda and Tukhachevsky to be arrested as enemies of the state, allegedly on the service of foreign powers. The address, purposely dramatic, appeared to have had a stunning initial effect as a Red Army battalion – allegedly pressed into action by its political officers – tried to arrest Yezhov, the NKVD Deputy Chief, and shot him as soon as he tried to resist.

Whether Kirov stood any real chance of further enacting his crackdown remains a matter of speculation. The same applies to his actions, as it is said the Acting General Secretary, for unknown reasons, hesitated on his next move. Whichever the case, it was to become apparent he had made too enemies and/or courted too few allies. Soon after Yezhov’s murder, several dozen T-26 tanks were deployed across the streets of Moscow, all while Red Army and NKVD units systematically arrested men marked on long, seemingly endless lists. Kirov and Zhdanov, his deputy, were arrested on the Kremlin and dragged into the Lubyanka building for, among other things, a fairly thorough interrogation. That night, a radio speech from Moscow announced the formation of a State Defense Committee (GKO) to “Save the Soviet state from foreign plots”. Both of the surviving men marked for death by Kirov; Tukhachevsky and Yagoda, announced their assumption of emergency powers as Chairman and Deputy Chairman.

On the following weeks, several prominent Soviet politicians either disappeared or left the Soviet Union in a hurry, all while the surviving Stalinist and Left-Right Opposition blocks intensified their apparent lobbying to prevent a purge at the hands of the State Defense Committee. Kirov and Zhdanov were both tried for treason at a secret GKO session, a one-day trial with no witnesses or defense counsel that resulted in their conviction for multiple counts of treason, corruption, conspiracy with foreign powers, and the assassination of Yezhov, the new regime’s shining martyr of Communism. Though this remains unconfirmed by the few press reports leaking out of Moscow, both men were said to be dragged back to Lubyanka for their immediate execution via a shot at the back of the head. In the meantime, as the Red Army mobilizes to seize control in key cities, elements of the party remain restless, and there’s talk of conspiracies, revolts and perhaps even civil war in the air.

And whilst Communist parties in Western Europe remain paralyzed by the events in Moscow, with no formal line yet being directed from the Third International, open dissent has already begun to emerge within the People’s Republic of Mongolia, the USSR’s largest vassal state. From Ulaanbaatar, Prime Minister Genden has denounced the multiple coups that have taken place, and is perceived to be moving his nation away from the Soviet camp. Reports of internal infighting have also begun to arrive from Irkutsk and Vladivostok, where local Red Army officers appeared to have formed two rival camps due to unspecified reasons. As the world holds its breath, the future of the Soviet State appears to be one big open question.

Upheaval in the Commonwealth

Ireland and Australia see regime change in elections,
“Big beasts” Lang and de Valera brought down by controversies,
Whilst Dublin turns moderate, Canberra invokes a “rightist” Lang

In apparent contrast to recent electoral triumphs for Jan Smuts and R. B. Bennett, cementing the influence of their respective parties in both South Africa and Canada, other parts of the Commonwealth have seen their fair share of electoral upheaval for incumbents. In Australia, the highly controversial – some would say mercurial – Premier Jack Lang scored early successes by championing female suffrage on the world stage and by successfully pushing an unprecedented National Health Service pilot through a highly divided Parliament. In spite of such wins, the government was quick to descend into infighting and disarray as Lang himself, perhaps exhausted out of persistent infighting with London, the media, and his own party, became more and more reclusive. By the time the 1937 campaign rolled in, and despite the absence of his previous nemesis Joseph Lyons, it became clear Lang was not the same force of nature that he had proved to be in 1934.

At the end of a muted, yet not inconsequential campaign, and with the economy suffering from government paralysis, the results were not surprising. The Australian Labor Party was to return to the political wilderness, losing almost half their seats despite retaining a larger share of the vote than what it was originally predicted. This, in turn, enabled former PM Billy Hughes – originally elevated to the UAP leadership to fight Lang as his right-wing counterpart – to take the UAP back into government despite Hughes’ notoriously bad relationship to the more conservative Country Party, which performed strongly. In the end, Hughes proved to be the sole plausible premier, securing the barest of majorities with supply and confident from independent MP’s. With Lang almost certain to see a leadership spill from his own unhappy backbenchers, many expect Hughes to dismantle the NHS pilot at the earliest opportunity. It remains to be seen how Hughes will approach both the fraught relationship with Britain, and the rise of Japanese influence in the Pacific.

In Ireland, the ruling Fianna Fail faced the electoral contest confident of its own strength due to its healthy majority, yet aware of growing discontent due to the ongoing trade war with Britain. Eamon De Valera, the President of the Council, was to see his final year in office dominated by the British question, his actions ranging from attempts to reach a compromise with London to loudly denouncing British interference in Britain. Many observers agree that de Valera was most likely undone by his own enthusiastic diplomacy, which led to the Irish Free State angrily walking out of the League of Nations following a public spat, and, in an act that resulted in open protests in Dublin, inviting Edward VIII to live in Ireland should he be forced to abandon the throne. By the time the campaign started, Fianna Fail was generally perceived to have hit an effective campaign theme. However, the harm appeared to have already been done, with De Valera’s enthusiastic campaigning only serving to minimize loses to Fine Gael, the new major opposition party.

Much like in Australia, the opposition vote was harmed by the firm entrenchment of Fianna Fail, preventing De Valera’s predecessor W. T. Cosgrave from winning an outright majority. Still, Fine Gael – born out of the fusion of previously divided opposition forces – clearly defeated Fianna Fail at the polls, with Cosgrave forming a minority government widely expected to rely on independent TDs on different topics. Although Cosgrave is generally expected to be less outright confrontational to London than De Valera, many wonder how the Anglo-Irish relationship will develop in the coming months.

1937 Australian General Election:

Party/Alliance		Votes (%)		Seats
United Australia Party		39% (+6)		37 (+13)
Australian Labor Party		34% (-9)		22 (-16)
Country Party		17% (+2)		14 (+4)
Social Credit Party		4% (=)		0 (=)
Communist Party		1% (-1)		0 (=)
Other		3%		1 (+1)
Total				74 Representatives

Incoming Prime Minister:
Billy Hughes (UAP)

Incoming Government:
UAP Majority with Ind Supply and Confidence (1 Seat)

1937 Irish General Election:

Party		Votes (%)		Seats
Fine Gael		48% (NEW)		68 (+68)
Fianna Fail		41% (-9)		54 (-25)
Labour Party		7% (+2)		10 (+2)
Others		4%		6 (-3)
Total				138 TD's

Incoming Prime Minister:
W. T. Cosgrave (Fine Gael)

Incoming Government:
Fine Gael Minority (2 Seats short)

[Lumine]

Oil Crisis: Britain vs. Turkey

Atatürk triumphs against Chamberlain in historic gamble,
Treaty of Istanbul radically reduces British influence in the Middle East,
Turkish President emerges as unlikely anti-imperialist hero for Arabs

By and large, the diplomatic community in Ankara had to agree – some more willing than others – that Turkish President Kemal Atatürk had gambled hard and recklessly… and been handsomely rewarded by fortune as a result. The coordinated nationalization of the Iranian and Iraqi oil industry, a clear show of defiance from the rising Eurasian Alliance against the British Empire and its Middle East influence and power, had the makings of a large-scale war. And as British garrisons fought off Iraqi attackers, and the RAF battled the Turkish Air Force across the skies of Baghdad, many assumed war was indeed inevitable. That this was not the case was due to careful and energetic diplomacy, a historic and unexpected solution to the crisis – which threatened to wreak serious economy havoc due to oil embargoes – that earned French Premier Édouard Daladier a Nobel Peace Prize.

The signing of the Treaty of Istanbul seemingly precluded fighting, with Britain accepting – to the outrage of the oil barons – the nationalization scheme and scaling down its military presence in the region, falling back to Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Despite commitments by Egypt to never nationalize the Suez Canal – the mere notion of said nationalization previously thought inconceivable – and participation in the oil industry via a new Eurasian Alliance Oil Company, the Treaty was quickly interpreted as a stunning victory for Ankara. As far as many Arab leaders were concerned, Atatürk – who, being Turkish and not Arab, was always to be perceived a distant figure – had taken on British imperial power, and won. This impression was further reinforced by the ailing President himself, by taking on an intense “charm offensive” which, while making him even more hated in Britain proper, earned him plaudits in Western Europe.

In contrast, and despite being defended by a minority for preventing a larger, possibly ruinous war, Chamberlain was to be vilified for signing what many felt a disadvantageous treaty, failing to address what many saw as a direct insult to the Empire. As Chamberlain returned to London to face the blowback and his eventual removal from power, pro-Arab riots in Palestine intensified to a larger scale than before, sensing weakness. With King Farouk now applying for Eurasian Alliance membership, Ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia remains the sole key figure still loyal to London, allegedly out of permanent distrust for Atatürk and outright disdain for Faisal of Iraq. Even worse, anti-British protests have even erupted in Muslim-majority areas of the new Dominion of India, whose devolved elections are yet to take place. Thus, as the British Empire appears to be more vulnerable than ever before, Atatürk has emerged not only as an unlikely icon for Arabs keen to see the Middle East free from European influence; but as something of a rallying figure for so-called “anti-imperialistic” forces.

Downfall of a Prime Minister

Chamberlain battles King Edward and Mosley, with mixed results,
Treaty of Istanbul cripples beleaguered premier, Cabinet revolts,
Premier forced to step down, successor yet to be determined

At the end of 1936, most expectations pointed out towards Neville Chamberlain entering history as a successful premier, committed to domestic reform and having the majority to see it through. This was not to be, leading to his removal after one of the most dramatic years in British domestic – and foreign – politics. Although the Prime Minister was generally regarded as having had a positive start in office, working alongside European partners to salvage the Czech economy and starting substantial expenditure on social programs – temporarily undercutting the Progressive coalition MP’s -, controversy was already courted by the decision to substantially ramp up rearmament, a decision that – Winston Churchill’s bombastic PR campaign notwithstanding – proved controversial with a public generally supportive of MacDonald’s more dovish approach. Then the Prime Minister was forced to face the polarizing subject of the King’s marriage, resulting in a press briefing war that soured Chamberlain’s reputation with pro-King circles and voters. And then, of course, Turkey and the Eurasian Alliance stuck.

Chamberlain, it must be said, did his best to try and reverse the situation. Soon the pro-establishment papers started briefing against King Edward, repeatedly portraying him as pro-German and somewhat reducing his luster – despite his still overwhelming popularity – among the British working class. A settlement was negotiated with Turkey, sparing Britain an oil embargo at the cost of much of its Middle East settlement. When the Austrian crisis stuck. Chamberlain shocked many with an aggressive tone, expelling the German ambassador and going much further than most in opposing Hugenberg. And then, when Sir Oswald Mosley received a warm welcome in Italy by the Duce, the Prime Minister struck what he considered to be a crippling blow against Fascism by trying to have Mosley arrested and charged with conspiracy to commit treason. No one, thus, could fault Chamberlain from inaction.

Unfortunately for the surprisingly combative Premier, Mosley being a sitting MP caused a major row with Parliament and the Judiciary, resulting in Mosley’s eventual trial and acquittal due to a lack of evidence. In a rare moment at the Old Bailey, the judges felt forced to chastise the government in public for moving forward with an arrest without due evidence, and Mosley was widely perceived to have been greatly empowered after being made something of a political martyr. The curious, perhaps inconsistent nature of the British establishment regarding foreign policy then reared its head: the same establishment figures who criticized Chamberlain for being “too tough” on Berlin – with some complaining the expulsion of the Ambassador made war unnecessarily likelier – also took distinct offense at the Treaty of Istanbul, finding it unconscionable – all while smaller parties like Labour praised the government – that Britain would be brought down by what they considered to be inferior peoples.

Thus, Chamberlain was suddenly placed in a position of having made too many enemies. As soon as the Treaty was announced, Churchill, Duff Cooper and other “hawks” immediately resigned from the Cabinet, and the Conservative backbenches revolted. The establishment old guard, upset over the European policy, made it clear they felt a new man was needed. Parliament, offended over the breach of parliamentary privilege – even over a man they thought disgusting – made it clear they would not ratify the Treaty. And the King, alienated by the press warfare, had no desire to keep the Prime Minister in office. After a stormy afternoon, the Cabinet forced Neville Chamberlain to resign as Prime Minister shortly after the first anniversary of the 1936 General Election. With Chamberlain temporarily staying in office as a caretaker, the so-called “magic circle” of Conservative grandees is already discussing a successor, and King Edward is said to be carefully considering his next steps.

The Balkan Quagmire

Yugoslavia revamps itself, Bosnian revolt crushed,
Croat and Albanian resistance carries on against Italy,
Hapsburg monarchy restored in Hungary, refugees reach Bulgaria

Having purposely chosen not to invite foreign dignitaries to the ceremony – perhaps in an act of protest over the Treaty that ended the Third Balkan War -, Regent Nedic surprised many in Europe when, in a formal ceremony in Belgrade, the end of Yugoslavia was announced. In a decision that has been linked directly to the rising, ethno-nationalist rising stars in the government as opposed to the more conservative Nedic himself, the Yugoslavian experiment was declared to be over, its demise being explained as a result of the “unreliable, treasonous activities of non-Serbian minorities.” Citing such an explanation as the reason behind defeat in the war, the staunchly pro-Serbian government in Belgrade has proclaimed the foundation of the Kingdom of Greater Serbia, retaining the child Peter I as its monarch and claiming a large extension of territory that, while smaller than 1933 Yugoslavia, is still greater than the post-war order.

Such a dramatic act can be directly linked to recent successes in the field by the newly renamed Serbian Army, which has seemingly broken the back of the Bosnian rebellion by securing all major cities and driving the insurgents into isolated pockets of resistance. In a backdrop of alleged ethnic cleansing, massacres and/or harsh anti-guerilla suppression activities, and as thousands of Bosniaks take advantage of the multilateral refugee scheme to travel – virtually unmolested – to Bulgaria and then to Turkey, Greater Serbia has earned a much needed respite by avoiding its most immediate threat. Although the Bulgaro-Serbian ceasefire still holds, lasting far longer than anyone expected, there are few who believe renewed Serbian activity to recapture Macedonia from Bulgarian intervention will not happen sooner rather than later.

In Albania and Croatia proper, recent Italian occupation has undoubtedly extended the Italian hold over the Adriatic, but not without cost. Although Albania by and large has remained quiet, pro-Zog militias continue to offer some degree of resistance in the mountains, an insurgency that has managed to show some staying power. In Croatia itself, the successful establishment of the Ustashe as the ruling party and government in all the main cities – following a strongly pro-Rome line and entering the TAC - has not prevented the rump HSS from leading a major insurgency. Even as some key figures defect to the Ustashe under promises of mercy and rehabilitation, the original core group continues to fight despite a heavy Italian presence, resulting in multiple casualties on both sides as endless skirmishes and acts of sabotage take place in the countryside.

And, just as the Austro-German Anschluss seemingly closes the door of a Hapsburg restoration in Vienna for good, the Hapsburg dynasty has finally achieved success elsewhere. Despite the dismal state of the Kingdom of Hungary after the war, heavy German investment has been enough to rebuild most of the capital of Budapest, just as promised elections took place. Following a strong victory for the incumbent National Unity Party (NEP), an apparent reward for the relatively successful conclusion of the war, Archduke Otto von Hapsburg was formally elected King, becoming Otto II of Hungary. Although the foreign ramifications of Otto’s crowning are yet to be seen, the news was extremely well received in Hungary proper, with the Archduke having gained popularity after his service in the war. With Admiral Horthy widely expected to trade his Regent post for the Premiership, the fiction of the “Kingdom without a King” has now come to an end.

1937 Hungarian General Election:

Party		Votes (%)		Seats
National Unity Party		49% (+9)		178 (+29)
Independent Smallholders Party		22% (+11)		29 (+19)
Christian Economic and Social Party		7% (-5)		13 (-18)
Social Democratic Party		9% (-2)		10 (-1)
Others		12%		15
Total				245 MPs

Incoming Prime Minister:
TBD (NAP)

Incoming Government:
NAP Majority (111 seats)

[Lumine]

Sino-Japanese War

Bloody siege at Shanghai ends with Japanese victory,
Zhang surprises with Manchurian offensive, counterattack blunted,
Signs of internal disruption within the ROC, naval blockade established

Following the conclusion of the first few battles of the newly reignited Sino-Japanese conflict – this time featuring the Chiang-Zhang duo jointly resisting Tokyo -, both sides geared up for what promised to be a major, long-term conflict. Partly due to high civilian and international casualties, most of the eyes of the world were forced on the city of Shanghai, in which the sizable Japanese garrison remained hard-pressed facing a siege from much larger NRA forces. The siege or battle for Shanghai was to last for several months and up to the end of the year, with staggering casualties on both sides. The initiative remained with the Chinese for the first few weeks, launching mass assault after mass assault and slowly gaining ground – fighting over every single house and street – in the process. Indeed, it took far longer than expected for the defenders to solidify their frontlines, with high Chinese morale overcoming severe attrition from battlefield casualties. Whilst the battle for Shanghai raged, other units of the IJN proceeded to establish a full military blockade of Chinese ports, virtually cutting off the flow of weapons and supplies to the Chinese Nationalists.

The Imperial Japanese Navy, meant to have played a larger role in the initial stages of the battle at Shanghai, was kept out of the fighting whilst the Chinese air force – bolstered by recent French training – kept up fierce resistance. It took the intervention of the much feared Japanese aircraft carriers – one of which, Akagi, was heavily damaged by a lucky hit – and their highly trained crews for aerial supremacy to be finally established, after which naval gunfire only amplified enemy casualties. Near the end of the year, and with thousands – or dozens of thousands – dead across the battered streets of the metropolis, Japanese forces executed a complex yet highly successful series of landings, threatening to outflank the Chinese positions and forcing their withdrawal. Although Japan has paid a dear price for the city, the Chinese forces retreat in far worse shape, conceding a key logistics hub for future operations and leaving the capital of Nanjing vulnerable to attack. Simultaneously, the IJN struck across the Chinese coastline, resulting in several fierce battles for control over the remaining seaports as Japanese troops prepared to land.

Despite a heavily publicized blunder at Qingdao and Fuzhou, the sole remaining ports – other than Guangzhou, under warlord control - to remain open after costly landings failed, all other Japanese attempts managed to overcome local resistance, enabling Tokyo to establish multiple bridgeheads. Surprised by a further lack of resistance, the Imperial Japanese Army was able to expand all bridgeheads over the next two weeks, only to discover that retreating enemy forces had done their best to plunder and burn abandoned ground. Although the route for further expansion thus remains open, Japanese forces will undoubtedly face a logistical hurdle to secure more ground. As these battles continue within the Chinese mainland proper, morale at the ROC has been significantly hit by battlefield setbacks, controversy over the suspension of land reform in certain zones – with unrest being fueled by mysterious propaganda – and an unexpected underperformance by Chinese currency, as counterfeit bills appear to be flooding into major cities. On the other hand, observers report that anti-Japanese sentiment remains at an all-time high, particularly as – in spite of public efforts by Tokyo to pursue restraint – tales of savagery in the field by the IJA have not subsided.

Ultimately, the most dramatic events of the first year of the war were to take place in Manchuria. Recognizing the apparent futility of their southern push following grievous losses and glaring material inadequacies, ROC and Northern Coalition commanders jointly suspended the advance, resorting instead to defensive warfare as large lines of trenches and fortifications have emerged across the new border. Over the coming weeks, both the Chinese and Japanese forces have done their best to bait each other into assaulting defensive positions, all while trying to cut their respective supply lines through the use of the Japanese air force or Chinese guerrilla units. Thus, only limited amounts of ground have been traded, most assaults – usually the result of local officers taking the initiative – ending in costly, failed ventures. Up north, the Young Marshal himself took the initiative, gathering his best units to lead an offensive into Jehol Province and Inner Manchuria itself. Despite the seemingly unsurmountable logistical challenge, Zhang showed proof of ingenuity by using a large labor corps of carriers, with thousands of civilians – and animals – keeping a manual supply line open to keep the Northern Coalition armies moving.

This offensive seemingly coincided with Tokyo’s strategic interpretation of the war, for the IJN repeatedly ceded ground to Zhang and enabled the Young Marshal – who led his own forces in the field – to overrun Jehol and come dangerously close to breaking out into Manchuria proper. This, in turn, was to be followed by a carefully prepared Japanese counteroffensive, with the planned objective of isolating and encircling its seemingly overextended enemy. This proved to be challenging from the start. Although a planned pro-Zhang uprising to paralyze Manchukuo failed – with heavy casualties for the militiamen -, militia units were able to execute a raid against Japanese commander Hideki Tojo, heavily injuring the General and disrupting the enemy command structure. The Japanese air force, so successful in Shanghai proper, found it difficult to hit Zhang’s supply lines due to their autonomy from mechanization, forcing pilots to overexert themselves trying to identify supply columns as Zhang’s own airmen – lacking suitable planes but not skilled pilots after an influx of foreign volunteers – made their own aerial kills.

By the time the Japanese counteroffensive started, initial battlefield success was clear as Japanese tanks – many of them German-made – proved efficient at overcoming Chinese firepower, bringing Zhang’s advance to a halt. Unfortunately, the same terrain that enabled the Chinese to fight unconventionally made the use of tanks a logistical nightmare, with vehicles breaking down over the sand and rugged terrain. Oddly enough, it was Japanese ingenuity – matching that of Zhang – that turned the counteroffensive’s failure into a mere stall, with bicycle infantry overcoming the limitations of mechanized units. In the end, the onset of winter forced a temporal lull in fighting. The IJN had kept Zhang out of the larger cities in Manchuria, but Inner Mongolia had been lost and the Young Marshal’s forces, at least for now, were nowhere near encircled.

As Prague recovers, Bucharest plunges

Unprecedented international action salvages Czech economy,
Despite averting continental disaster, Romanian economy crashes next,
Resulting fallout leads to government defeat at polls, King Carol loses influence

Whilst the Prague Stock Exchange plunged further into disaster and the Czech society, paralyzed by government gridlock, into further despair, many economists feared the crisis could well spiral into a repeat of 1930, a blow whose consequences – particularly as many nations are yet to fully recover – were terrifying to consider. Their fears were largely answered through unlikely diplomatic cooperation, with the failure of recent efforts – particularly in terms of influencing US economic policy towards Europe – being suddenly reversed following the so-called Krakow Conference. In an unprecedented effort – which, insiders claim, almost led to President Koc toppling Daladier for the Nobel Peace Prize -, four of Europe’s main powers were to join forces to establish the so-called “European Monetary Fund”, an organization that would provide the necessary loans to salvage Czechoslovakia and, arguably, most of Central Europe in the process.

Although an attempt to recruit a high-profile economist to lead the EMF was to fail and the exclusion of Germany caused controversy, the organization had sufficient clout through the variety of its backers – Daladier, Chamberlain, Mussolini and Koc – to overcome the sheer novelty of its mission and goals. Despite local controversy – squaring off those relieved by international action to those decrying the EMF as a “humiliation” -, the minority Petka government was able to push an economic recovery plan relying on the EMF through parliament with the unexpected support of the local Fascist deputies, enabling the rescue loan – governed by a series of limitations and regulations – to go through. In spite of a general belief that a general election is inevitable, the Prague Stock Exchanged slowly recovered some of its lost ground, and the Czech economy, while still crippled, has successfully avoided a US-style collapse.

The foundation and first mission of the EMF has undoubtedly raised the international clout of all four of its founding members, though at the cost of not-insignificant domestic blowback over spending being routed to Prague. Whether the organization has a future beyond its Czech operation is likely to be tested in the near future, as the same scenes of drama that took place in Prague have now gone over to Bucharest. Already heavily damaged by the Depression, the Romanian economy was further hurt by the Third Balkan War, the US embargo and an apparent lack of a clear economic direction, a problem that only grew larger and larger until it burst. The cause, in this case, was the prospect of war between Romania and Britain as a result of the Middle East oil crisis, a prospect that, through eventually eased through the Treaty of Istanbul, sparked sufficient fears to provoke a panicked reaction at the Bucharest Stock Exchange.

The resulting fall in stocks immediately spiraled into a full-blown crash all too reminiscent of Prague, an economic crisis that soon engulfed the country and drove already high unemployment into socially explosive levels. This, unfortunately for the incumbent government, was to coincide with the General Election, right at a time in which the ruling PNL had not yet decided on a firm economic policy or taken sides on the debate over autarky. The PNL subsequently crashed at the polls, delivering a large and previously unexpected victory to former PM Iuliu Maniu and his - also relatively centrist – PNT. Not coincidentally, the crash has also greatly empowered local far-right leader Codreanu, whose Iron Guard almost outpolled the PNL. In the aftermath of the election, and as local politicians debate on whether to impose austerity, and whether to seek a bailout either from Ankara or the EMF, likely PM Maniu seems set for a conflict with King Carol, whose authority has been greatly weakened by recent events.

1937 Romanian General Election:

Party		Votes (%)		Seats
National Peasants Party		34% (+22)		143 (+116)
National Liberal Party		29% (-26)		116 (-184)
Iron Guard		21% (NEW)		75
Magyar Party		5%		15 (+7)
National Christian Party		4% (NEW)		8
Others		10%		30
Total				387 MPs

Incoming Prime Minister:
TBD (NAP)

Incoming Government:
TBD

The Protectionist Revolt

Rise of free trade diplomacy sparks backlash in Europe,
Agrarian parties on the rise as rural areas turn towards protectionism,
Trade unions and workers incensed, strikes and protests in urban areas,
France at the center-stage, Central Europe also faces blowback

As recently as 1933, attempts in Western Europe to liberalize trade and overturn the wave of protectionism that had emerged – with substantial popular support – after the Depression, were met with significant backlash both in France and the UK, even causing friction within the Commonwealth. As nations – most of them – have continued to recover at least to some degree, this push for free trade and less restrictions have only deepened as 1937 moved on, resulting in an odd combination of crowning trade achievements coupled with political consequences particularly felt in France and across Central Europe. The Polish Republic proved to be the lesser affected country, having both contained some of its multiple trade deals to industrial goods and having enacted – just in time – a highly ambitious agricultural plan which, while enormously expensive – and only partially implemented -, contained resentment in the agricultural sector over a loosening of restrictions. On the other hand, similar measures were not as successful for the industrial sector, coinciding with an unexpected revival in activity – for unknown reasons – in the Polish opposition. As a result, though President Koc remains popular, a combination of industrial strikes and opposition marches offers a first sign of dissent.

Matters escalated further in Germany, Bulgaria and Turkey, all of which subscribed separate agreements that sparked protests in major industrial and urban centers, protesting what many workers or trade unions have dubbed an “unfair” economic strategy. Hungary would have likely seen such protests, were it not for the distraction offered by the crowning of the new Hapsburg King and, perhaps more crucially, the economic despair and hope for a German lifeline outweighing long term concerns. Ultimately, it was in France that the political storm erupted to its harshest level. What was to be a crowning, historical achievement by President Daladier in the signing of the Franco-Belgian-Luxembourg Customs and Currency Union, a near unprecedented – only matched by the defunct Latin Monetary Union – effort that would link all three economies in drastic ways. The news, strongly championed by Daladier’s Radicals and by pro-business leaders, met with outright disdain from French farmers – none too keen to see trade barriers gone – and even from French workers, a movement that had proved previously crucial for the government.

The National Assembly, already heated due to debates on police crackdowns, the far-right, and other highly controversial issues, became a space almost devoid of calm, with previously supportive independents and even several SFIO – and/or leftist – deputies turning against Daladier. The same protests and strikes seen in Eastern and Central Europe were matched across Paris, Lyon and other such cities, with the added complexity of rural mobilization and intense pressure being exerted on government and opposition deputies, scenes which were also seen in Brussels as well. And although the separate oppositions to incumbent governments have done their best to side with either workers or farmers, or champion economic protectionism – those not previously bound to side with free trade -, public frustration has been enough to warrant the formation or growth of so-called “Agrarian” parties, as well as far-right or far-left organizations.

With the Hungarian and Romanian elections having already featured electoral growth of such groups, and with the so-called “Protectionist Revolt” – thus dubbed by Hearst Media correspondents -, many wonder just how much it will grow, and whether incumbent governments will double down or back down on the free trade approach.

Borah’s First Year

FDR trial in progress, Washington DC on edge,
President charts moderate course, New Deal down but not out,
Concerns over long-term agenda, questions arise over Borah’s vision

Although not as joyful and crowd-packed as FDR’s inauguration back in 1933, William Borah and Theodore Roosevelt Jr. could be well said to have had a respectable opening to their Administration, a surprisingly civic act between Borah and outgoing President Garner in light of the contentious election and impeachment trials. Crucially, President Garner’s postponement of a decision on whether to pardon Roosevelt – in effect outsourcing the responsibility to the incoming administration – led to Borah’s firm decision not to pardon the controversial former President, resulting in a bribery trial starting in the middle of the year and attracting heavy involvement from the media. While in the short term, the refusal to pardon FDR has been bitterly criticized by moderates in both parties – citing a desire to spare the country from a painful trial -, anecdotal evidence suggests the decision may not have been badly received by the electorate, a large part of which appears to remain resentful over FDR’s perceived “betrayal” of the public trust.

For the most part, newspapers have proved willing to portray the President as someone keen to restore such trust, but there has been no shortage of accusations that a pardon was only denied to further embarrass the beleaguered Democratic Party with the trial. Recognizing the difficulty posed by being on the legislative minority, Borah has surprised observers by refusing to take on Congress head on, proving instead to be a reasonably effective negotiator while portraying his Administration as keeping Congress in check. This lack of controversy and major political fights, in turn, has helped the Borah Administration avoid major missteps thus far, while raising future issues of its own. Thus far, Borah has seemed content to let the Supreme Court take the lead in moderating – some would say emasculating – the still popular New Deal, focusing on addressing inefficient programs rather than, as many conservative Republicans – chief among them former President Hoover – attempting to destroy the program as a whole.

Despite a popular – if risky – refusal to partake in attempts to bail out European economies, foreign policy has proved a source of headaches, with refusals to restrict the power of the arms industry and opposition to constitutional amendments further empowering Congress disappointing isolationist groups, many of which expect Borah to be more strident in the cause of taking America away from “foreign adventures and war profiteering”. Perhaps more importantly, a relatively calm first year in office is yet to reveal a clear motivation – for the public, that is – and vision that sustains the Borah administration, the more evident downside of the President’s extremely measured approach. With 1938 approaching, and it with, the midterm elections, Borah will face a difficult decision on whether to maintain the moderate approach or undertake a more ideological agenda, with the Republican Party not yet convinced on which course of action might prevent the usual losses experienced by every President.

[Lumine]

Turn VI: 1938

The Cast:

German Reich: Chancellor Alfred Hugenberg (RGM2609)
United States of America: President William Borah (S019)
British Empire: Prime Minister Edward Wood, Viscount Halifax (Dereich)
Soviet Union: Chairman Mikhail Tukhachevsky (Lakigigar)
Empire of Japan: Emperor Hirohito (Devout Centrist)
Republic of France: Prime Minister Edouard Daladier (YPestis25)
Kingdom of Italy: Duce Benito Mussolini (KaiserDave)
Republic of China: Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek (Kuumo)
Republic of Turkey: President Mustafa Kemal Atatürk (Spiral)
Union of South Africa: Prime Minister Jan Smuts (Ishan)
Kingdom of Hungary: King Otto II Hapsburg (AverageFoodEnthusiast)
Polish Republic: President Adam Koc (Windjammer)
Kingdom of Romania: King Carol II Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen (Muaddib)
Kingdom of Bulgaria: Tsar Boris III Saxe-Coburg and Gotha (OBD)
Abyssinian Empire: Emperor Haile Selassie (New York Express)
Commonwealth of Australia: Prime Minister Billy Hughes (GoTfan)
Dominion of Canada: Prime Minister R. B. Bennett (DKrol)

Economic Performance:
Polish Republic: High
British Empire: Moderate
Empire of Japan: Moderate
Kingdom of Italy: Moderate
Union of South Africa: Moderate
Republic of France: Moderate
German Reich: Moderate
United States of America: Moderate
Dominion of Canada: Moderate
Soviet Union: Weak
Republic of Turkey: Weak
Kingdom of Bulgaria: Weak
Commonwealth of Australia: Weak
Republic of China: Weak
Abyssinian Empire: Weak
Kingdom of Romania: Very Weak
Kingdom of Hungary: Very Weak

Popularity:
President Kemal: Very High
Chancellor Hugenberg: Very High
Tsar Boris III: High
Duce Mussolini: High
King Otto II: High
Generalissimo Chiang: High
Emperor Hirohito: High
Prime Minister Smuts: High
President Koc: High
Prime Minister Bennett: High
President Borah: Moderate
Prime Minister Daladier: Moderate
Prime Minister Lang: Moderate
King Carol II: Moderate
Emperor Halie Selassie: Moderate
Chairman Tukhachevsky: Low
Prime Minister Halifax: Low

Mobilization Level:
Total Mobilization: None
War Mobilization: Republic of China, Empire of Japan
Partial Mobilization: None
Conscription: Republic of France, Soviet Union, Spanish Republic, Polish Republic, Kingdom of Bulgaria, German Reich, Republic of Turkey, Kingdom of Italy, Kingdom of Hungary, Kingdom of Romania
Volunteer Army: United States of America, British Empire, Union of South Africa, Commonwealth of Australia, Abyssinian Empire, Dominion of Canada
Demilitarized: None

[Lumine]

German Reich:

Chancellor,

It has been a year of unexpected triumphs for the Reich, ranging from the successful Berlin Olympics – despite the onerous cost of rebuilding the capital – to, most notably, the long-desired Anschluss between Austria and the Reich. Having started in a shaky position, it could be said that your domestic standing has never been stronger after the new National Day celebration, but with times changing so fast it is no time to rest on one’s laurels. The Saar remains occupied, with acts of defiance by local inhabitants growing more violent each day. The conservative old guard takes on an increasingly expansionist tone on its speeches at the Diet, demanding the return of Germany’s old colonies. And others still suggest it is time Germany rebuilds its own alliance bloc, finding new and solid partners for the future. What will you do?

Despite this domestic rise in popularity, isolated pockets of defiance have reared their head during the first weeks of the year. On one side, the purge of the local Churches has sparked far more resistance than originally thought possible, with several Catholic and Protestant bishops speaking out against the government from the pulpit and causing strain with the Vatican, and in the Imperial Diet with the former Zentrum and BVP members. On the other, the signing of free trade arrangements has sparked a reaction from workers and the remnants of the trade unions. Just this week, an illegal gathering saw hundreds of workers marching on the streets of Dresden with your former ally Gregor Strasser at their head, demanding a protectionist policy and better working conditions in the factories. How should they be dealt with?

The absorption of the Austrian economy and its assets has done a great deal in alleviating pressure on the German economy and avert what may have become a crisis, but the Reich is still far away from meaningful prosperity. Unemployment may be reasonably low, but inflation is rising and the stock market is still terrified over the Romanian crash and the possibility the Czech economy may yet go under. Germany has also acquired new responsibilities in supplying new allies and, in particular, in assisting with the reconstruction of Hungary, a difficult balancing act that the Reichsbank increasingly struggles to fulfill. How will you handle these economic difficulties?

British Empire:

Prime Minister,

Welcome into office. As the first peer to become PM in forty years, you face a difficult yet not insurmountable task, and one that demands rapid decision-making. Although the Conservative Party commands a firm majority in the House of Commons and Parliament can last until 1941, the government has taken a major popularity hit, forcing you to make a series of important domestic decisions. One is how to handle the fact that, as Lord, you cannot enter the House of Commons nor – unless the law is changed – renounce your peerage to do so. Another is whether Churchill, Duff Cooper and the other “hawks” ought to be persuaded to return to Cabinet, having resigned in protest over Istanbul. And finally, whether anything can be done about Sir Oswald Mosley, whose rising popularity – and recent judicial martyrdom by Chamberlain - is threatening the Conservative Party to some degree.

Undoubtedly the biggest challenge ahead is Britain’s dwindling position in the Middle East – and even Asia itself – after the Treaty of Istanbul and the oil crisis. Protests grow in the Dominion of India as they demand the promised elections to be scheduled as soon as possible. The Mandate of Palestine is in flames as Jewish colonists battle Arab militias. Atatürk has forced Britain’s hand into a Treaty that Parliament refuses to ratify, all while Egypt is on the verge of entering the Eurasian Alliance and Saudi Arabia stands alone as a British partner. And, as if to make matters more complex, the combination of saving the Czech economy, ramping rearmament and funding more social programs all conspire to put a strain on finances. Difficult choices lay ahead, but it could be said some underestimate the resilience of Britain. What will you do?

Perhaps one of the biggest winners of Chamberlain’s forced resignation was His Majesty himself, Edward VIII. In unprecedented scenes of constitutional breakdown, something of a briefing war emerged between 10 Downing Street and Buckingham Palace, and though the King has been wounded by supposed pro-German views and middle-class backlash, he remains overwhelmingly popular across the nation. More to the point, he shows no signs of backing down on his intent to marry Ms. Wallis Warfield – formerly Simpson – or silencing his expression of views, having grown emboldened after two years holding the Crown. This, in turn, is as bitterly resisted as ever by the same establishment that has propelled you into office. What should be done?

Republic of France:

Prime Minister,

It is perhaps one of the great ironies of life that your biggest personal achievement, the Nobel Peace Prize, comes right at what many observers are calling the most difficult year of the government, one you’ve miraculously managed to keep together for six years. The most urgent domestic challenge is posed by the so-called “Protectionist Revolt”, leading to mass strikes by workers in Lyon, Paris and Marseille, and protests by farmers across most provincial capitals. Rallying against the Customs and Currency Union and the EMF bailout of Czechoslovakia, tentative demands include turning away from free trade, ending EMF participation, and other measures bitterly resisted by your party. To make matters more complicated, the SFIO has been rocked by worker upheaval, adding enormous pressure on Blum to abandon the government, and the independents on whom the parliamentary majority rest are slowly forced to side with the farmers. How should this crisis be handled?

Against all expectations, the much dreaded Austro-German union has taken place, substantially empowering the Reich while, at least nominally, worsening the French strategic situation. On the bright side, Italo-German relations might be gone forever, and the lack of war has seemingly brought a sigh of open relief for many rather than the nationalistic fervor some feared. It is in this context that the issue of the Saar becomes ever more pressing, with locals increasingly resorting to violent and disruptive methods against the occupying French corps. This, in turn, has caused intense debates on how to solve the issue for good, ranging from those willing to accept the high costs of permanent occupation, to those desiring a diplomatic exit, to those advocating outright annexation despite the risk of breaching the Treaty of Versailles. How should Germany and the Saar be dealt with?

The success of the Viénot Accords – despite their denunciation by the right – has secured the peaceful transfer of power in Syria, preserving some French influence for a few more years. Recent colonial measures have also found success in West Africa. However, it appears that French Indochina – increasingly vital to the economy due to its resources and growing infrastructure – is the next colonial headache to take form. Although the colonial administration of the protectorates is solidly French, with a pliable puppet Emperor causing no issues, the local Communist parties have violently proliferated under a nationalist banner, causing almost daily upheaval in Saigon and Hanoi alongside the local trade unions after, reportedly, sensing a weakness in French colonial rule. How will you deal with Indochina?

United States of America

Mr. President,

After a moderately successful – if relatively uneventful – first year in office, Washington D.C. is starting to gear up for Midterm Elections in November, an uphill climb for a Republican Party which entered office already on the minority in both the House and the Senate. On the bright side of the matter, the Democratic Party is still hopelessly divided between progressives and conservatives, the latter of which have proved willing to compromise with the administration. On the darker side, isolationists are disappointed by your refusal to go as far as they wish in fighting what they consider to be “war profiteering”, and the press is increasingly critical of what they see as a “lack of vision” coming from the White House. As November fast approaches, what will be the rallying cry of the Republican Party and the Borah Administration?

Contrasting with FDR not being able to appoint any Justices to the Supreme Court, developments over the past twelve months have led to three vacancies: Justices Sutherland and Van Devanter (Conservatives), who have chosen to retire, and Justice Cardozo (Liberal), who has passed away. Strictly speaking, this offers you the unique opportunity of reshaping the Supreme Court at a time in which it is emasculating the remnants of the New Deal, provided you can find a way through the Democrat-controlled Senate. Will you be seeking to appoint moderate justices, to preserve balance and ease confirmations? Conservative justices, to appeal to Southern Democrats and wield a sledgehammer against the New Deal? Or liberal justices, taking the Republican Party into an firmly progressive footing?

Trouble is brewing south of the border, and the Administration is likely to be faced with its first real foreign crisis. Over the past few years, the Petroleum Workers Union of Mexico has been locked in a vicious fight with the foreign oil companies – most of them American and/or British – that control oil production in Mexico over working conditions. President Cárdenas, a known left-wing nationalist thought to be inspired by recent events in Iran and Iraq, is now raising the specter of nationalization of the Mexican oil industry, an act that would significantly undermine and damage Standard Oil and Jersey Standards. Will you be taking action to prevent nationalization? What should US policy towards Mexico be?

Soviet Union

Comrade Chairman,

Following a successful coup d’etat – the second in two years – you sit on the Kremlin as Chairman of the State Defence Committee (GKO), the de-facto government of the Soviet state after the downfall of Stalin and Kirov. With the bulk of the Red Army and the NKVD behind you thanks to an awkward alliance with NKVD Chief Yagoda, you must make the difficult decision of how to govern and how to reorganize the state. Will you be repeat Stalin’s example and seek total control? Will you seek to follow Napoleon’s example and use personal rule to take the Revolution elsewhere? Or should you seek to be a primus-inter-pares, and thus avoid the fate of Kirov and Stalin? Equally important will be the decision on what the status of the Red Army will be, with the local garrisons having temporarily replaced the local parties in local governance.

During one of your first Kremlin meetings, Yagoda offers a briefing on the surviving factions and individuals within the Soviet Union, all of them factors to be considered. Kirov, Zhdanov, Beria and Kaganovich are all confirmed dead, with only Stalin reported but not confirmed as killed. The surviving Stalinists (Molotov, Kalinin and Khrushchev) urge you to crush the Left and Right opposition and restore the state of affairs previous to Stalin’s downfall, under new management. The Left (Kamenev and Zinoviev) and Right opposition (Kirov and Bukharin) would have you democratize the party and lead a new “Revolution” (a development Trotsky is looking with interest from his exile). The other Soviet marshals (led by Voroshilov) appear to have misgivings over your personal views. Yagoda would have you purge at least one or two factions to stabilize the USSR, but more enthusiastic officers are already talking of a wide purge. What ought to be done?

Party matters aside, the lack of a stable government over the past two years has severely disrupted the centrally planned economy, resulting in decreased economic output and declining finances. Worse still, open signs of defiance are starting to show. Locally, there are already isolated reports of Red Army units being fired upon by small bands of insurgents in Chechnya, the Ukraine and Eastern Siberia. Abroad, the USSR’s largest satellite nation is showing concerning signs of autonomy, as Mongolian premier Genden has taken the unprecedented step of denouncing the instability in Moscow and Stalin’s previous tendencies. Losing Ulaanbaatar would undoubtedly weaken the Soviet position in the Far East and possibly empower the Japanese, but there’s a question of whether the USSR can afford an expedition to put Genden in his place. What will you do?

Kingdom of Italy

Duce,

The mood at the most recent Cabinet in the Palazzo Venezia is of a decidedly mixed nature. On one side of the table, Marshal Balbo laments the Vienna debacle, and makes the case for Herr Hugenberg to be turned into an international pariah whilst an Austrian government in exile is formed. On another, Count Ciano believes the recent Balkan triumphs outweigh the Anschluss, as Italy, for all purposes, is the undisputed master of the Adriatic and remains at liberty to pursue other foreign adventures as the Anti-Bolshevik pact grows. The debate, ultimately, is by no means settled. Minister Jung, for his part, expresses serious concerns over the Romanian economic debacle, particularly given its key role as an oil exporter to the continent, and dares to advocate that Italy take the lead in salvaging Bucharest’s beleaguered economy. How should Italy pursue its foreign affairs in 1938?

Control of the Adriatic may be a firm reality, but recent developments in Croatia and Albania ensure that the Balkan question is not as settled as Rome might like. The removal of Macek and the installation of Ante Pavelic as supreme master in Croatia has sparked an uprising, with the HSS remnants fighting across the countryside as casualties continue to mount. And although King Zog might be sitting helplessly somewhere as even the League of Nations abandons him, some of his followers continue to resist in the mountains, inspired by a sparingly effective initial response to the Italian invasion. Therefore, the question arises on whether puppet regimes ought to handle the dirty work of dealing with insurgencies, or whether the Italian military should take direct control. Furthermore, the question of how Albania is to be governed also remains open.

Although a recent overture to Argentina has failed after the victory of the liberal-minded opposition, Italy has seemingly found a more receptive environment in Brazil. From Rio de Janeiro, the populist and nationalist President Getulio Vargas has just successfully launched a self-coup, announcing the start of a so-called “New State” (Estado Novo) and closing down Brazil’s democratic institutions. Even if Vargas himself rejects the label, many have noted the similarities of his program with Italian fascism and corporatism, and the President has reached out to Count Ciano for a potential partnership. However, this is complicated by the Brazilian Integralist Action, the local fascist party – that commands support from the Italo-Brazilian population -, whose leader, Plinio Salgado, denounces that Vargas has banned his party and cracked down on what Salgado calls “true Brazilian fascism”. How should the Brazilian overture be dealt with?

[Lumine]

Empire of Japan

Your Majesty,

The Empire is at war. Despite significant attrition and casualties, the Imperial Japanese Army and Navy have largely prevailed during the first stage of the war, expelling the Chinese from Shanghai, opening up the route to Nanjing and Beijing, and occupying almost the entire enemy coastline, leaving only the blockaded Guangzhou, Fuzhou and Qingdao open for Chiang. On the other hand, Marshal Zhang’s ingenuity has achieved significant progress for the Northern Coalition, seizing Inner Mongolia and essentially threatening the core of Manchuria with invasion. There is no agreement to speak of between the IJA and IJN on how the war should be prosecuted, or even what the end goal truly is, and important decisions must be made on how the vast occupied territories will be administered. How should the war be fought in 1938, Your Majesty? And should the Empire take advantage of the Mongolian situation as well?

Perhaps due to the war, Prince Higashikuni has been able to enlarge his government into a national unity formation, though the question of whether the Minseito and Seiyukai ought to have more cabinet portfolios is one that is poisoning the environment somewhat. Even the Kokumin Domei has moderated its rhetoric against the government, directing it instead in support of the war effort in China and calling for harsh action to subjugate the Chinese people for good. The Shakai Taishuto has been the only party to offer some criticism, and even this has come at an internal cost. Oddly enough, it is education that has become an early issue for Higashikuni’s government, with the Seiyukai leading the charge to reform education policy to foment nationalism and racial superiority, while purging teaches who disagree with the war and with those policies. How should Higashikuni conduct domestic affairs this year?

Republic of China

Generalissimo,

China is now at war. Although some warlords are yet to fully support the war effort – including Yunnan and the Ma Clique -, effectively collaboration has been established with the Northern and Southern coalitions, doing much to bolster resistance efforts against the admittedly powerful Japanese military. Thus far, Marshal Zhang holds a knife at the throat of the Japanese in Manchuria and Shanghai has only been ceded to the enemy after prolonged resistance, but much of the coastline has been lost and the Japanese blockade is preventing the arrival of foreign weaponry and supplies. There are those, like Wang Jingwei, who urge a compromise to avoid bloodshed. Most are prepared to fight to the bitter end, but warn the struggle may yet turn grim. How will China conduct this struggle against Japan, and what will be Nanjing’s end goal?

Despite a newfound sense of national unity, there are many domestic issues demanding attention. Chief among them is the issue of the capital city of Nanjing, which is now left vulnerable after the fall of Shanghai. There is simply no consensus on whether the city should be abandoned for a safer, remote location, or whether the government should remain to avoid panic. There is also disagreement on how hard Nanjing should be defended, with the experience of Shanghai warning of the dangers of prolonged attrition. Some officers are also advocating suspending the planned local and municipal elections, judging them to be a distraction. And, as always, there is the issue of the National Revolutionary Army, which will have to be both funded and supplied instead of the blockade. Can you find a way to solve these conundrums and marshal China’s resources successfully?

Polish Republic

Mr. President,

Although for the most part averted from going out of control due to the timely arrival of the highly expensive agricultural plan, there are newfound signs of dissent for Sanation. The farmers may be placated for now – yet still upset about a steady embrace of free trade -, but industrial dissent and opposition to the Czech bailout remains high, resulting in a series of strikes across Warsaw and Krakow and some organized marches by opposition leaders that have sparked some concern within the government. As always, there is disagreement between those who would try to address the crisis through increased social spending, to those who favor repression and cite the need to use those resources elsewhere. More complicated still, events in Romania have led many to question whether Warsaw ought to step in and save the Romanian economy as well.

Ever since the annexation of the Vilnius region, the government of Lithuania has steadfastly refused to have normal diplomatic relations with Poland, clinging to the belief the territory remains to them. This posture has only solidified under the continued rule of President Antanas Smetona, whose stubbornness has increasingly infuriated the “hawks” within Sanation. Only a few days ago, an incident between Lithuanian and Polish border guards left one dead in each side, an act which Minister of State Rydz-Smigly was quick to denounce as an international Lithuanian provocation. As crowds begin to gather in Warsaw to protest against what they see as a hostile regime in Lithuania, demands within Sanation and the military – led by Rydz-Smigly – grow for action against Smetona, even in favor of a military response if needed. With the Soviets busy elsewhere and the eye of the world placed upon the Germans, should action be taken to respond to Lithuanian aggression?

Republic of Turkey

Mr. President,

Your remarkable popularity has hit heights never seen before, as crowds dance and sheer in Istanbul, Ankara and all the major cities following the announcement of the Treaty of Istanbul. Already there is talk on Mexico of mimicking the oil nationalization that the Eurasian Alliance has seemingly attained with very limited bloodshed. However, looks may yet be deceptive. The Saudis stubbornly cling to Britain. Faisal of Iraq is as opinionated as ever. Venizelos despairs in forced exile in Istanbul. And though young King Farouk is about to bring Egypt into the Eurasian umbrella, the arrival of a new “grey men” to 10 Downing Street could yet signal renewed resistance from the British Empire. How should diplomacy with the new Prime Minister be handled, and, will you manage to retain the gains that not long ago seemed so impossible?

Albeit masked by the oil crisis triumph and the marked increase in your personal standing, some recent decisions have sparked criticism against the government, even from newspapers and congressmen usually reliable. For one, the successful resettling of thousands of Bosnian refugees has been met with distrust at best, even after public campaigns to promote the scheme. Though integrating themselves reasonably well and looking at you as a savior, it is clear the move has not brought out a sense of kinship in the Turkish population. More worryingly, the entry into several free trade arrangements has angered the trade unions, farmers and other groups who embrace protectionism, resulting in thus far non-violent protests and demands for a return to earlier standards. There are those who advise turning back the clock could well avert needless controversy before elections are held in 1939, just as others warn the Turkish economy desperately needs more trade. What should be done?

Kingdom of Romania

Your Majesty,

These are grim times for Romania, and the situation in Bucharest is described by some as downright bleak. Panicking over the oil crisis, the Bucharest Stock Exchange crashed into a violent meltdown reminiscent of New York (1929) and Prague (1936), sinking the already weakened Romanian economy. The political effects notwithstanding, unemployment has climbed into disastrous levels as millions of restless citizens are left unemployed and in danger of becoming destitute. This, in turn, necessitates an urgent response, the nature of which your advisors cannot agree upon. There are those who favor austerity, bringing down spending as much as possible in order to balance the budget. Others favor mimicking Poland and the United States through deficit spending, pointing out to the oil industries as potential collateral for foreign loans. And others still would go to the EMF and beg the four powers for a Czech-style rescue, even at the risk of having policies imposed on Romania. What should be done?

Almost as pressing as the economic crisis is the political situation, the crash coinciding with a General Election that has left the monarchy greatly weakened. The PNL was violently hurled out of office, with your rivals Maniu (centrist, PNT) and Codrenau (far-right, Iron Guard) securing enough seats between themselves to ensure a hostile parliament. This, in turn, creates an interesting dilemma. Parliament is likely to insist on Maniu as premier, a move that would placate the traditional politicians while further weakening your powers and influence. Naturally, this is bitterly resisted by the collection of royal courtiers and friends that has bolstered you during the past decade, with some of them even encouraging you to take action to prevent a hostile government from taking over Romania and, so they claim, “sell it to the highest bidder”. What will you do?

Union of South Africa

Prime Minister,

Yet another attempt to get the LON to accept South African control of South West Africa has failed, but it has come to be expected by many. Having slowly built much political capital and eviscerated the opposition, you stand at a solid position, only undermined by the apparent lack of direction by the government. This is perhaps best represented by foreign policy, an area in which two souls appear to collide: one, close to the expansionist views of a greater South Africa you’ve held for years, advocating for South Africa to simply annex the mandate, encroach into the Portuguese colonial possessions, and/or even redouble the case to merge Southern Rhodesia with the Union. Another, hopeful about South Africa’s international role, calling for the Union to take the lead in strengthening the League of Nations, battle for a Jewish Homeland (a goal previously supported by you), and/or adopt other causes to earn prestige and respect for the nation. What will you do?

Commonwealth of Australia

Prime Minister,

Jack Lang, the “Big Fella”, has been vanquished at the polls by the United Australia Party after three controversial years in office, allowing you to make an unexpected return as PM with a majority dependent on a single independent MP. Known for your strong views and abrasive behavior, many wonder if you can square said views with such a narrow majority. Priorities will include deciding whether to scrap Lang’s controversial National Health Service pilot, whether to push your known support for rearmament despite its unpopularity, where to stand on King Edward VIII’s marriage plans and the Sino-Japanese war, and, perhaps more worryingly, on the ongoing secession movement in Western Australia, empowered after the anti-secession Labor experienced such erosion during Lang’s time in office. How will you conduct yourself in the first year of your return?

Kingdom of Hungary

It has been a long road, but at long last, you have recovered the Crown of St. Stephen. A Hapsburg sits on the throne of Hungary once again, and the indignity forced on your father – twice – has been somewhat mitigated. The other crowns of your family, however, appear to be far, far away, particularly after the Anschluss. For all purposes, the worst appears to have passed, with Budapest slowly being rebuilt, elections successfully held, and the German economic lifeline keeping the country running while its finances are slowly rebuilt. Thus, new decisions are to be made. One of them is whether to appoint former Regent Horthy as Prime Minister, and if not, who should have the post. Another is how to grow the Hungarian economy to recover from the war. And yet another, sparked by the economic meltdown of Romania and Czechoslovakia, as well as the end of Yugoslavia, is whether the border demilitarization forced by the Treaty of Paris should be respected. What will the King do in his first year in office?

Kingdom of Bulgaria

Your Majesty,

Against all expectations, the unlikely ceasefire between Sofia and Belgrade has held over a period of months, creating a tense sort of peace in the war-torn region whilst local inhabitants – and more importantly, Mihailov and the IMRO – wonder when hostilities will resume. Despite recent difficulties encountered as farmers and workers protest free trade agreements in the streets of Sofia, the military has been pressuring to resume hostilities before Greater Serbia – now triumphant against the Bosniaks – fully stabilizes and overwhelms Bulgarian defenses in Macedonia. Prime Minister Mushanov, on the other hand, would rather rely on international arbitration, suggesting Bulgaria may have earned foreign goodwill after assisting in the rescue of the Bosniak refugees. The decision, ultimately, lies with the Crown, and with it the potential fate of the nation. What will you do?

Abyssinian Empire

Your Majesty,

After seven years of reign as an absolute monarch, increased border tensions have led to a state of permanent uncertainty within Addis Ababa. Over the past two years there have been multiple border skirmishes between Italian and Abyssinian troops across the border with Italian Eritrea, resulting in several casualties and, most recently, what appears to be a troop build-up ordered by Rome. With a lack of reliable foreign partners, and with the nation’s defense undercut by a continued arms embargo – since 1906 – by Italy, France and the United Kingdom, many wonder whether the prospect of war with Rome is likely, and whether the Empire has the means to inflict another devastating defeat in the mold of the Battle of Adwa forty years ago. How will you handle this border conflict?

Dominion of Canada

Prime Minister,

A third electoral victory has restored the Conservative majority and greatly enhanced your status as a consecuential Premier, although it has also caused something of a paradox. One of the most effective criticisms by the Liberal Party on the campaign trail was the perception that the Conservatives would be more likely to involve Canada in a future struggle, which now appears more likely than ever as tensions in Europe boil and explode. Just as important, those same tensions and uncertainty have done much to undermine economic stability, preventing further gains and keeping the Canadian economy somewhat stagnated - if finally out of Depression -. On the other hand, Canada has made a point of closing ranks with the Commonwealth, and after seven years in office, your voice undoubtedly carries some weight on the world stage. How will you navigate these troublesome waters? (OOC: Consider it written for the status of January 1938).

[Lumine]

EVENT

Czech government collapses

Deadlock on presidential election brings a VONC,
Petka minority government brought down by combined opposition,
Czechoslovakia heads to the polls amidst fear, anger and uncertainty

FOR: EUROPEAN PLAYERS

Having miraculously lasted for over two years in spite of a hopelessly deadlocked parliament, the joint government of Acting President Jan Malpetyr, recently appointed Prime Minister Milan Hodza, and the moderate "Petka" parties has come into an end. Already crippled by the Prague Crash, the government made a narrow survival thanks to the last minute assistance of the founding members of the EMF, getting their rescue package through Parliament by the narrowest of margins thanks to unexpected support by National Fascist League. Buoyed by this success and early signs of the stabilization of the economy, Acting President Malpetyr tried to break the deadlock by having Parliament elect a successor to the deceased Tomas Masaryk. It was not to be. Vote after vote successive Petka candidates were vetoed by the ethnic parties, the Fascists and the Communists, and then further action was taken.

General Radola Gajda (National Fascist League) and Klement Gottwald (Communist Party) joined forces to force a Vote of No Confidence, which passed thanks to the vote of the ethnic parties. The collapse of the government and the lack of any viable alternative has left Malpetyr with no choice but to call a general election, one in which the five Petka parties are broadly expected to take on an even larger beating. In the meantime, the ethnic parties are in a state of high mobilization, with calls for domestic autonomy and even independence for Czech Germans, Hungarians, Ukrainians and the Slovaks having grown exponentially as a result of the war and the stock market crisis. In the meantime, Gottwald and Gajda are aggressive touring the nation and appealing to the vast masses of unemployed citizens, with both parties expected to have a growth similar to that of pre-Hugenberg Germany.

Following the General Election, the new parliament will have to elect a President by majority vote. The prospect of a Fascist or Communist government in Prague, in the meantime, has led to increasing alarm from the Czech establishment and parts of the military, with talk of a potential military coup ever more prominent in the newspapers. For all purposes, and until the election is held in a few more weeks, Czechoslovakia stands at the brink.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Comintern marches on the Far-East!

Following historic signature of Russo-Japanese non-aggression pact,
Red Army invades Xinjiang region, Mongolia attacks Northern Coalition,
Chinese public outraged, demands grow on Chiang to declare war on Moscow

FOR: USSR, CHINA, JAPAN

It was back in 1933 that, desperate from support to resist a Kuomintang invasion, local Xinjiang warlord Sheng Shicai urged Moscow to intervene. Stalin, then busy with a series of domestic crises, chose not to, allowing young General Ma Zhongying - a rising KMT star - to seize the region, kill the warlord and replace him as a sort of unofficial viceroy for Chiang Kai-shek. Technically subservient to Nanjing, Ma had almost five years of unobstructed rule over Xinjiang, time spent in consolidating control, brutally suppressing a series of revolt, significantly expanding his local armies, and exploiting resources to combat the sheer lack of development on the region. Though concerned by the Japanese invasion, Ma had not yet taken active steps to mobilize troops to the east when frantic reports came from his border guards: the Red Army had crossed the frontier.

Having just signed an unexpected non-aggression pact with Japan, Chairman Tukhachevsky put an end to several years of Soviet timidity in foreign affairs, and ordered the immediate invasion and occupation of the vast desert region. 20,000 Red Army soldiers stormed the border positions and promptly defeated local garrisons and a few militia units, starting a rapid penetration towards the regional capital of Urumqi. Aided by superior weaponry and technology, the Soviets destroyed one of Ma's divisions at the battle of Kashgar, forcing the personal intervention of Ma Zhongying and the 36th Division, his cadre of elite troops. After abandoning most of western Xinjiang, Ma made a successful stand at the Battle of Aksu, containing the Soviet advance and preventing a rapid capture of Urumqi.

The Soviets then wasted no time in proclaiming the formation of Xinjiang People's Republic from Kashgar, and it is reported by foreign journalists that an intense pro-Communism propaganda operation is taking place across the region. The first headache for the Soviets, however, has taken place due to the formation of the government, with local Communist General Ishaq Beg Munonov proposing himself to lead it at the same time that a delegation from the remnants of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has petition the local Red Army commander to allow the CCP to establish itself in Xinjiang rather than having a regional government. Ma, for his part, has urgently requested reinforcements and supplies from Nanjing, a prospect that appears unlikely due to the Japanese naval blockade.

However, the more dramatic move was yet to happen. Following the visit of a Soviet delegation to Ulaanbaatar, recent disagreements between Prime Minister Genden and Moscow seemed to come to a swift end. Only days after the Soviet incursion into Xinjiang, 30,000 men from the Mongolian People's Army crossed the border into the areas controlled by the Northern Coalition of warlords, swarming Inner Mongolia and directly threatening Field Marshal Zhang's rear with the bulk of his forced locked deep into Manchuria. Unlike in Xinjiang, the Communist effort proved far less successful due to the dismal state of the Mongolian forces, with only the arrival of volunteers preventing an early defeat at the hands of Zhang's rearguard units. Still, the threat is serious enough to pose the difficult question of a withdrawal from Manchuria, at a time in which the Genden government appears to be pursuing bold Pan-Mongolism.

In Nanjing and other Chinese cities not under occupation, the news of the Soviet and Mongolian invasions has sparked fury, anger and talk of betrayal, a development that has also weakened remaining pro-Communist sympathies in KMT territory. Crowds have started to march demanding a declaration of war on Moscow, posing a major dilemma for Generalissimo Chiang.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Terror attack in Ukraine!

Insurgents stage surprising assault on Mezhyhirya Residence,
Largest act of defiance in living memory, Red Army mobilizes in Kiev,
Leading Bolsheviks Grigory Petrovsky and Stanislaw Kosior killed

FOR: USSR

Few parts of the Soviet Union had endured as much pain as the Ukrainian SSR, the largest victim of a mass famine during the early 1930s which had sparked unprecedented international criticism of the Soviet Union. And though the famine may have eventually been left behind - partly due to the actions of Stalin's protegé Nikita Khrushchev -, resentment may have not receded in the slightest on account of recent events. With the continued lack of leadership disrupting the government machinery, it was left to the surviving high ranking officers of the Communist Party of Ukraine to keep things running, a task not aided by increasing acts of defiance in large cities that were, at least domestically, portrayed as the work of a few malcontents.

Matters seem to have escalated to an extent no one thought possible, as reports began to arrive from Kiev of gunfire and a major explosion at the Mezhyhirya Residence, the summer residence of the Communist Party. Several Red Army companies were met by gunfire, resulting in a prolonged battle that produced over two dozen casualties before undetermined groups of assailants withdrew into the neighboring woods. It was quickly determined that a large terrorist group had attempted to storm the residence, blowing it up with explosives when resistance proved tougher than expected by the guards. Among the casualties there were several high ranking members of the party, including the two top officials in Ukraine: Grigory Petrovsky, Chairman of the Central Executive Committee; and Stanislav Kosior, First Secretary of the Ukrainian Communist Party.

Although further details appear to be limited, it is reported that the Red Army has mobilized across the city of Kiev in its hunt for the assailants, considered likely to be Ukrainian nationalists. This act of violence, the largest show of defiance to Moscow in living memory, is coupled with unconfirmed reports of military maneuvers in key Soviet cities and of the disappearance of a number of high ranking party and military officials.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Coup d'etat in Czechoslovakia!

Military, establishment joins forces to cancel election, citing dangers,
General Syrovy to lead government, crackdown against fascists and communists,
Street fighting in the cities, ethnic minorities revolt across the nation

FOR: EUROPEAN PLAYERS

By all accounts, the Czechoslovakian election campaign promised to be the most memorable in the young nation's history. The Communist and Fascist parties started a major push across the nation, showing remarkable and unexpected organization and availability of resources. So much so, that foreign correspondents noted with irony that the extremist parties appeared to be far better funded than their establishment foes in the Petka parties. A similar phenomenon was detected on the separate ethnic parties, all of which began to adopt an increasingly critical line against Prague whilst also mobilizing their voters in an unprecedented effort. Thus, it was broadly expected that there would be a hung parliament, with a lack of clarity on whether General Gadja, Gottwald or the Petka would emerge victorious. This was not to be. As the political environment grew more tense and newly created fascist and communist paramilitary groups started to brawl daily on the streets of Prague, a storm was brewing. Talk of a coup in the making proved not to be a rumor, but a full-fledged reality.

One week before Election Day, the Army suddenly mobilized from its barracks as LT-35 swarmed the streets of the country's major cities. A radio broadcast from the capital announced the formation of an emergency government, with Acting President Malpetyr suspending the elections and empowering General Jan Syrovy, the General Inspector to become Prime Minister. Syrovy, for his part, gave a lengthy speech warning of "grave danger to Czechoslovakia". Among other reasons for the coup, Syrovy cited foreign intervention with the upcoming elections, alleged plans for a German invasion in case of a communist victory, evidence of separate planned coups by both the fascist and communist forces, and the need to "preserve the unity of the nation". Over the next few hours, the Czechoslovak Army was able to seize control of all government buildings and the mass media, which for the most part cooperated willingly by broadcasting and printing stories supporting the emergency government. An initial "decapitation strike" was able to arrest both Gadja and Gottwald and disrupt the extremist paramilitary forces, which have been all but crushed within Prague itself.

This rapid success was for the most part matched across the bulk of Czechia and Czech-majority areas, as well as with a swift occupation of the Ukrainian-majority Subcarpathian Rus. However, the surviving units of the Communist and Fascist paramilitaries have now mobilized in other large cities, and remain locked in bitter fights with the Army as they hope for support before collapsing. General Syrovy has wasted little time in presented what is claimed to be evidence of vote-rigging plans in captured Communist and Fascist strongholds as further justification for this dramatic course of action. This, however, has harshly contrasted with the ethnic side of the affair. Against the expectations of Prague, which expected to find the biggest resistance amongst the extremist paramilitary, the coup has been resisted from the start by the German, Hungarian, Ukrainian and Slovak minorities, with their respective political leadership taking swift action to mobilize resistance. Across the Sudetenland, ethnic German units have either refused to comply with orders and/or began to desert, whilst German National Front leader Konrad Heinlein has call for resistance and urged Berlin to take action.

In Slovakia, the coup failed in Bratislava as the ethnically Slovak troops resisted their officers, embraced by a supportive population. Andrej Hlinka, the most prominent Slovak leader, has already called for a Slovak uprising. Across the Czechoslovak-Hungarian frontier, and looking towards their brethren on the demilitarized side of the border, a split has shown up within the Hungarian Czechs. Whereas the senior leader Janos Esterhazy has issued an appeal for pacific resistance, his deputy Andor Jaross has echoed the calls for revolt, and called for Budapest to intervene. In Zaolzie, the city of Bohumin is under firm military control, and a delegation of ethnic Poles has crossed the border to ask Warsaw to safeguard their interests. And, in the Subcarpathian Rus, military occupation has prevented a coordinated uprising, but there are reports of infighting as well.

With the coup's fate hanging on the balance and Czechoslovakia on the breaking point, no observer dares predict what will follow.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Hungary invades Czechoslovakia!

King Otto II delivers historic statement, cites need to protect Hungarians,
Royal Hungarian Army breaches demilitarized zone, storms Czech border,
High casualties on both sides, Hungarian Czechs welcome invading force

FOR: EUROPEAN PLAYERS

Events are moving fast in Czechoslovakia as the recent coup d'etat takes form, with General Syrovy quickly attaining Anglo-French recognition whilst the battered Communists and Fascists try to regroup. However, the most dramatic and recent development has not come from the cities in which the coup is being fought - against or in support of - but from across the border. Having only narrowly survived as a nation after having had their capital captured by the Czechs only three years ago, the Kingdom of Hungary had seemingly waited with patience for its opportunity, and they had found it. Stunning and stirring the nation by speaking against what he called the "ongoing persecution and oppression of Hungarian minorities by the Czechoslovak dictatorship", and citing a failed assassination attempt on his person by a Czech nationalist, Otto outlined the Hungarian intent to liberate their brethren.

As he spoke, several divisions of the Royal Hungarian Army breached the Treaty of Paris, entering the demilitarized zone forced upon them. Due to the distance to be covered, Czechoslovakian border forces were able to organize some degree of resistance, forcing the Hungarians to lead frontal assault on their positions. After a few hours, the Hungarian forces broke through the overstretched Czech lines - who had redeployed several units to fight the Slovak and Hungarian uprisings - in spite of heavy casualties. Though outnumbered and at moments isolated due to partisan action, the Czech forces have regrouped and halted the Hungarian advance close to rebel-held Bratislava, taking advantage of far superior weaponry to continue to inflict significant losses on the invaders. For their part, the Hungarian forces have established a link to rebel leader Jaross, and have reportedly been triumphantly received by ethnic Hungarian communities.

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CRISIS

USSR invades Romania, Red Army marches westward!

Following assassination of local Communist leader, Moscow issues ultimatum,
Before Romania can respond, Marshal Blyukher storms Bessarabia with 500,000 men,
Romanian navy beaten, airforce forced to fall back, initial Soviet offensive delayed

FOR: ROMANIA, USSR, EUROPEAN PLAYERS

In spite of previously mediocre results, and being banned from standing for office, the Romanian Communist Party (PCR) had seen a major upsurge in growth after the economic crash and mounting collapse, with scores of workers and a few prominent trade unionists joining the ranks of the party. This, in turn, materialized itself in early 1938 with the start of strikes in Bucharest and other prominent cities. And while the size of the strikes and/or marches was always limited as opposed to having mass appeal, it seemed to observers as if the unemployed crowds were listening more and more, particularly when it came to criticism of the King. Still, it would have been surprising for most if this development had led to anything significant in the short and even long term, until it suddenly did.

Matters escalated significantly when, after a chaotic evening in Bucharest, PCR General Secretary Boris Stefanov was shot dead in his office, an attack repeated across the city as a number of prominent Romanian communists were murdered. Soon after an ultimatum was delivered to the Romanian government by Moscow, denouncing the prosecution of the Communist Party at the hands of the monarchic regime. Before the Romanian government had time to respond and/or react, reports arrived from the Romanian-Soviet border that a large number of Red Army formations were dashing towards the border. Over the next week it became clear that the Soviet Union was staging a major effort to occupy Romania, involving more than 500,000 men under the command of Marshal Vasily Blyukher.

Across the air, the Red Air Force quickly establish local air superiority over Bessarabia and Moldova, with the Romanian Air Force being forced to withdraw its forces to the south of the country. The Soviet Black Sea fleet was also quick to strike at the much smaller Romanian Navy, inflicting crippling casualties on enemy vessels and successfully starting a landing in the city of Constanta which, as of today, is still being bitterly resisted by the local garrison. Across the western part of the new theatre of operations, an infantry heavy force overwhelmed the border posts to storm into Bessarabia. A delaying action by the local commander prevented an encirclement that would have opened up the entire region to immediate occupation, at the cost of the city of Chisinau being given up.

Disappointingly for the Red Army, Blyukher’s armor-heavy dash towards Cahul was delayed by effective resistance, supply issues and poor coordination, but his armored columns are nonetheless approaching the key city. In the meantime, as the Romanian government is forced to scramble to coordinate its response, the PCR – now led by Stefanov’s unexpected successor, Lucretiu Patrascanu – has called on workers to arise and fight the monarchy.

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CRISIS

Germany invades Czechoslovakia!

Hugenberg declares war on Prague, pledges to support Konrad Henlein,
Reichswehr crosses border, enthusiastically received by Sudeten Germans,
General Syrovy estabilizes government, but Czechoslovak Army is left in disarray

FOR: EUROPEAN PLAYERS

After scoring a major result in the 1935 General Election, Konrad Henlein, leader of the Czechoslovak branch of the German National Front, rose to become the near-undisputed spokesman for the German minority in the nation, which amounted to more than 20% of the total population of Czechoslovakia. Neither Henlein nor his comrades were caught unaware by the Syrovy coup in Prague, resulting in immediate uprisings by the Sudeten Germans, the defection of ethnic German officers and soldiers and the recruitment of militias that disrupted the previously solid Czechoslovak defences in the area. This, in turn, was followed by a constant stream of calls for assistance from Henlein to Berlin, which went initially unheeded even as the Royal Hungary Army crossed the border and launched an invasion of their own. It seems that, in the end, the pressure on the German Chancellor proved decisive.

In a sudden radio speech, Chancellor Hugenberg outlined the need to "protect the German minorities" from the Syrovy regime, and delivered a formal declaration of war against Prague. This, in turn, was followed by other announcements declaring a state of national emergency and fully mobilizing the Reichwehr for action. Across the Czech-German border, made substantially larger after the Anschluss, German units from almost three dozen divisions began pouring in, attacking the substantial fortifications system in the hopes of finding hopes or weak spots caused by the disruption of the enemy armed forces. Immediate attempts to force the fortifications would fail in Silesia and the western-most part of Czechoslovakia, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides. In contrast, Gerd von Rundstedt's armored column from Dresden punched through with help from German defectors, capturing Liberec and opening a route to Prague.

The largest German success came in the south, taking advantage of weaker Czech fortifications and greater disruption caused by the insurrection in Bratislava. Here, Fedor von Bock secured a major breakthrough, capturing the key city of Brno and threatening to cut Moravia in two. In the meantime, the Czechoslovak Air Force, previously at liberty to bombard rebel positions, was forced to fight toe to toe with the Luftwaffe, a vicious sky battle that soon devolved into the sort of attrition Prague can ill-afford. Not everything, however, was sour for General Syrovy and his government. A lack of major support had resulted in the virtual collapse of Fascist resistance, many of its members going into hiding and a handful accepting a negotiated surrender. Communist fighters proved tougher to dislodge, having seized three industrial cities in which to make themselves strong.

Having consolidated his hold over Prague, Syrovy can credibly claim there is no real threat of being overthrow by the Fascist and Communist movements. However, he must now contend with the threat of the Reichswehr, the Royal Hungarian Army, the Communist survivors, and the ethnic revolts.

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EVENT

Sino-Japanese war expands!

Soviet intervention leads experts to talk of "Great East Asian War",
Tannu Tuva joins war, Ma Zhongying murdered, Xinjiang overrun,
Zhang holds the line in Manchuria, Chinese sacrifices slow down Japan

FOR: USSR, CHINA, JAPAN

The first half of 1938 - coinciding with the winter and spring fighting seasons - has resulted in the significant expansion of the Sino-Japanese war, which has grown in carnage, participants and proportion to the point of perhaps morphing into something new. Indeed, a number of US-based historians have already begun describing what they consider to be a three-way "Great East Asian War", pitting the Nationalist regime of Chiang Kai-shek and the various Chinese warlords (who have now closed ranks behind Chiang); against the separate forces of the Comintern and the Empire of Japan, both of which are now locked in what is rapidly descending into total war.

Far to the East, Xinjiang warlord Ma Zhongying fell victim to an assassin, identified as a local member of the CCP. With their leader dead, the 36th Division nonetheless made a final stand outside of Urumqi, keeping the Red Army - which had found partial success in recruiting minorities into its ranks - at bay for several weeks. However, the disparity in resources and the death of Ma undermined the Nationalist position, and the battle of Urumqi ended up as a Pyrrhic victory for the Soviet Union as several thousands of its troops were incapacitated. This, in turn, meant that subsequent efforts against the Ma Clique - shortly after local warlord Ma Lin survived another assassination attempt were easily repelled, forcing the battered Soviet troops back into Xinjiang. In the meantime, General Ishaq Beg Munonov ascended to the leadership of the Xinjiang People's Republic, turning Urumqi into a new haven for the remnants of the CCP.

Across Manchuria, Field Marshal Zhang redirected his forces to face the Mongolian Army, whose offensive had previously stalled. Taking advantage of superior experience by his men, Zhang overwhelmed the Mongolian lines to strike deep into Mongolian territory, only for a new wave of Soviet-led reinforcements - including cavalry from Tannu Tuva, which also declared war on China - to halt his advance. Further attempts only resulted in heavy casualties for the Northern Coalition, which has nonetheless turned the tables on the Mongolians. To their east, the Japanese took advantage of the distraction to renew offensive efforts, seeking to expel Zhang from Manchukuo. Field Marshal Sugiyama led the way with a clever use of cavalry to make up for the difficulty of the terrain, forcing Zhang to withdraw his forces. Zhang, however, rebuilt his defensive lines on the mountains, preventing Sugiyama from outflaking him as the campaign soon turned into a battle of attrition. Although the danger to Manchukuo has been blunted, Sugiyama is reported to have suffered horrific casualties in the process.

In the south, Japanese forces mobilized from the coastline in three main directions. To the north, a methodical advance with tank formations and coastal landings struck at the Shandong Peninsula, with the goal of seizing the key port of Qingdao. After several weeks of fighting, the IJA overran the entire peninsula and secured the port, only for the Chinese forces to stage a successful withdrawal with their forces virtually intact. In the center, the Japanese moved to threaten Nanjing directly, forcing the NRA to throw everything at them. After a prolonged struggle, the Japanese have been stopped a few kilometers from the city, at the cost of heavy Chinese attrition. And, in the southern-most theatre, Japanese forces stuck to the coast as they attempted to close all Chinese ports, securing Fuzhou in a bloody struggle before getting bogged down by the forces of the Southern Coalition (with Guangzhou now the only open port), in what is reported to be mutual carnage.

Reporters have noticed a continued upsurge in Chinese morale and national resistance, with anger at the Soviet Union and Japan overcoming any concern over recent loss of territory. Indeed, there are reports of the start of partisan action behind the lines, with several Japanese food aid convoys being intercepted only for Chinese resistance units to provide the food to the locals themselves. However, in what is believed to be one of the first hits to morale, Field Marshal Zhang and several members of his staff were attacked in an assassination attempt, leaving Zhang - increasingly a national hero - wounded and out of commission for the following months.

[Lumine]

CRISIS

Serbo-Bulgarian war resumes!

Two years of uneasy truce end as Bulgarian Army resumes operations,
Air power opens the door to Skopje, regional capital seized,
Serbians regroup, trench warfare emerges across Macedonia

FOR: BULGARIA

Against all expectations, the truce between Greater Serbia - then Yugoslavia - and Bulgaria had held for almost two years, creating a tense peace across the divided region. As paranoid Serbian and Bulgarian commanders saw the spectre of renewed enemy offensives at every turn, both sides entrenched themselves, with the Serbian forces doing its best to fortify the besieged regional capital of Skopje despite the inability to get war material into the city. And as the rest of Europe burned, Tsar Boris III appeared to have decided that the time was right. Following a breakdown in diplomatic communications between Belgrade and Sofia, the Royal Bulgarian Army threw itself at the frontlines, in a move that, perhaps surprisingly, had been forseen by the Serbian forces. Indeed, the Serbians had established several defensive lines with the limited material available, forcing the Bulgarians to storm trench after trench with significant casualties.

Indeed, the first few weeks of renewed hostilities have seen Bulgaria gain only limited ground, only for the Serbian Army to fall back and regroup in consistently decent order. In contrast, Skopje turned into a debacle for the Serbians, as the Bulgarians - having acquired a significant number of planes - gained air superiority over the city and used it to bomb the enemy as mercilessly as possible. After a few days, and with all hope of relief gone, the local Serbian commander committed suicide and authorized a surrender, enabling the Bulgarian Army and the IMRO militias - with Ivan Mihailov at their head - to enter the city, a key propaganda boost for Sofia. Thus far, there has been silence from Belgrade aside from condemning Sofia, with Regent Nedic being conspicuously absent from the public.

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MID YEAR NEWS - with Radio Crusader

"Pope Pius XI has issued a public call for peace from Vatican City, expressing extreme concern at what appears to be a rising state of war in Europe. His Holiness' call has been echoed by other pacifist leaders..."

"Isolationism on the rise as US midterm elections approach, several candidates adopting a line of strict non-intervention in European conflicts to appeal to..."

"President Atatürk tours Latin America in historic visit, received by welcoming crowds in Mexico, Argentina, Venezuela and Brazil. President Vargas has hailed his counterpart as a "true statesman"..."

"Former Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald dies aged 73, leaving the opposition Progressive Coalition in danger of splintering..."

"Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs premieres in the United States to great acclaim. Walt Disney's innovative approach to animated motion pictures has earned him support from critics and audiences..."

"Vyacheslav Molotov and Marshal Semyon Budyonny sentenced to death in Soviet treason trial, following reports of a purge of Stalin's closest allies. Marshal Voroshilov's funeral after his unexpected death to be held soon. Nikita Khrushchev's continued disappearance sparks speculation as to his fate..."

"Following stirring call for action by Duce Benito Mussolini, thousands of anti-Communist volunteers are reported to be reaching Bucharest to fight against the Red Army. Volunteers are reported to be organizing themselves as International Legions. Italians take the lead as the most prominent..."

"Australian Parliament passes emergency bill enacting the Statue of Westminster with support from UAP and Country Party benches. This, in turn, enables the Commonwealth of Australia to declare war on its own, a power previously under doubt..."

[Lumine]

World War II

List of Conflicts:

Czechoslovakian War: Republic of France, Czechoslovak Republic vs. German Reich, Kingdom of Hungary (1938 - Present)

Serbo-Bulgarian War: Kingdom of Bulgaria vs. Kingdom of Greater Serbia (1938 - Present)

Soviet-Eurasian War: Soviet Union vs. Eurasian Alliance [Turkey, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Romania] (1938 - Present)

Great East Asia War: Republic of China and Warlords vs. Empire of Japan and Manchukuo vs. Comintern [Soviet Union, Mongolia, Tannu Tuva, Xinjiang] (1937 - Present)

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July 1st, 1938