If Russia wins the war, how many other countries will they invade?

[SnowLabrador]

I think Moldova for sure, and likely the Baltic states as well. Yes, I'm aware that the Baltic states are NATO members, but Putin's insane enough to do it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What would even count as a "win" at this point? The successful occupation of the entirety of the Donbas? Even if this is successfully achieved in the end, the possibly pyrrhic nature of that victory might be enough of a deterrence already. If Putin loses 100,000 troops over the course of a two-year war or so then it will be more of a face-saving measure for him.

In short, I doubt that Russia will "win". More like a stalemate.

[PSOL]

The next strategic objective would be either to go for stabilizing the situation in the Caucasus or Central Asia.

Russia however is performing badly and I doubt they have any ability to improve their army under the current set of conditions well enough to engage in another high-intensity expeditionary campaign for the next decade or so without major allies. That the main reason Belarus didn’t engage in fighting in Ukraine was over risk of defections, and almost every other CSTO government has read the room and has been looking anywhere else but aligning more with Russia since 2014 or so, Russia is doing squat short term and I doubt the Putin administration lasts a decade more.

[Blue3]

Moldova, and the breakaway regions of Georgia. If really nuts, Belarus or Kazakhstan.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

If Kyiv falls entirely, everything is on the table. Putin likely annexes the country, then declares that no NATO country can be on Russia's borders, and it's game on. But that seems entirely unlikely to happen again, with Putin's sad-ass retro draftee army and their janky 1980s arms battling to hold onto even their very modest eastern gains.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next strategic objective would be either to go for stabilizing the situation in the Caucasus or Central Asia.

[dead0man]

The odds of Russia "winning" at this point are extremely long.  Putin is far more likely to die before Russia defeats Ukraine.  If the west completely abandoned Ukraine tomorrow it would still take Russia months to "win" and it still wouldn't be a guarantee.

We might as well discuss what the next Green Party nominee will do in their first hundred days as POTUS.

[Pericles]

If Putin threatened a NATO member, not only would they be able to defend themselves but he would be laughed out of the room. Smaller non-NATO countries remain vulnerable, but if Russia has any sense they will wait a few years to completely reform and rebuild their military. Indeed, hopefully Ukraine continues to bleed out Russia while the West wrecks their economy, so Putin or a more rational Russian leader will be even more deterred from invading a sovereign nation again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Moldova might have merged with Romania (or at least be well on the way to doing so) by the time the Russians get around to there. Which would still leave Transnistria's status unresolved, of course.

[Virginiá]

Russia's offensive capabilities are already languishing now and they have barely captured a 1/5th of Ukraine. It's going to take them years to rebuild their military, especially if they are still under heavy sanctions.

I'd like to see how this conflict ends before guessing, but I would say Georgia. Belarus is a client state already, and Kazakhstan is probably too large for Russia to successfully occupy. The Russian military's logistical capabilities are just terrible. If Russia fails in Ukraine, and Putin is still in power years from now, it's possible he might want to reorganize & rebuild his forces to try again, but I doubt that would happen for a number of reasons. One in particular being how well-armed, well-trained and fortified Ukraine is going to become if Russia pulls out or a stalemate along the current lines (more or less) occurs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With what?

[MABA 2020]

At this point any Russian victory is likely to be a pyrrhic victory so... zero?

[bilaps]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

[KaiserDave]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

You are a dummkopf

[bilaps]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

You are a dummkopf

What's going on in Lysychansk?

[CumbrianLefty]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

I would have thought you got excited at the thought of Russia invading more countries.

[bilaps]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

I would have thought you got excited at the thought of Russia invading more countries.

No, zero percent chance for that. Although, I never understood those Baltic states. Small countries who behave like British empire in it's prime.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

How about providing some actual arguments instead of writing cheap "lololol, I owned you, lol" posts riddled with poor orthography like you're a ten-year-old or something?

[bilaps]

Lol, thos thread is a pure gold

How about providing some actual arguments instead of writing cheap "lololol, I owned you, lol" posts riddled with poor orthography like you're a ten-year-old or something?

Actual arguments for Russia going to invade countires until it reaches Portugal or something? That type of BS doesn't deserve more than oneliner

[nicholas.slaydon]

Even if Russia "wins" in Ukraine, which is a big if in and of itself, I think that there can be no doubt that future Russian military intervention can be expected. However, I don't think it would likely be in Europe, and I don't think it would even be anywhere in the near future. Likely, any future Russian intervention would be in the Middle East, West Asia or the Caucasus. However, if no real attempt is made to stop Russian aggression, I think that years and decades down the line future aggression can be expected, even in Europe (of course that is all dependent on how long Putin lasts, and what happens politically in Russia once he goes).

[Person Man]

Even if Russia "wins" in Ukraine, which is a big if in and of itself, I think that there can be no doubt that future Russian military intervention can be expected. However, I don't think it would likely be in Europe, and I don't think it would even be anywhere in the near future. Likely, any future Russian intervention would be in the Middle East, West Asia or the Caucasus. However, if no real attempt is made to stop Russian aggression, I think that years and decades down the line future aggression can be expected, even in Europe (of course that is all dependent on how long Putin lasts, and what happens politically in Russia once he goes).

Russia is a time bomb. No doubt about it.

[All Along The Watchtower]

This question implies that Putin and his supporters—and fwiw, a lot of Russians who are not his supporters—have the same kind of Complex regarding other countries in Europe that they do with Ukraine. Or that the Russian military has any serious capability left for other misadventures.

What Russia is doing in Ukraine is horrifying and criminal, but from their point of view (note that I do not endorse this) they’re pacifying what is essentially a rogue region of historical “Greater Russia.” Think Chechnya, not the Baltics.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If things were to go extremely well for Russia, maybe Moldova or Georgia, but that's it.

[CumbrianLefty]

This question implies that Putin and his supporters—and fwiw, a lot of Russians who are not his supporters—have the same kind of Complex regarding other countries in Europe that they do with Ukraine. Or that the Russian military has any serious capability left for other misadventures.

I do indeed take your latter point - but the idea that Russia should restore the "glory days" and take pretty much the entire former Soviet/Tsarist empire back, is now a staple of state media.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Moldova, Khazakstan, Uzbekistan.

Little bit of Poland and Finland.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.

They could be in this for the long haul.