Tipping Point State?

Assuming Biden's incumbent. Can't really evaluate a primary because that means some f__cksh__t now and then.

Still like WI. Demographically speaking still has more blue-collar whites than PA or MI. Likewise Biden could still be weak w/the Badger undergrads+alumni if Ds can't deliver on student loan forgiveness, nor the AFT if action isn't taken on PROC+reversing right-to-work+. This not only stymies mobilization of rank-and-file, but inhibits AFT's ability to organize in other services/trades as an AFL-CIO affiliate. Finally turnout in Milwaukee should gauge Detroit and Philly, just on a slightly smaller scale.

PA continues to see issues with Ds dipping below 4,000,000 registered voters for the first time since the now distant Obama voter registration drives. Rs have whittled it down from 1.1 million it was on election day 2012 to a little under 550k as of this past Monday. By the same token, Biden playing greatest hits at the AFLCIO convention both mildly assauged fears regarding his senility and hit a sentimental spot that he still understands his constituents' concerns.

Abortion is now of course a hot-button issue. The mathrock/college women's basketball scene of the Delaware watershed speaks to the pro-choice inclination of the population. W/ NEPA you might see those D-leaning >65 Catholics flip R if they're pro-life enough, but anecdotally they already vote R for anyone not named Bob Casey. And of course, it'll bring out every last bitter person clinging to guns and religion who doesnt care if someone throws out everyones ballot nor the planet fries because the economy was good the first 3 years under Trump and whoever the GOP nom is will promise to keep appointing the justices who are fulfilling their Elohist fantasy. Just wait, they're gonna try to teach that s__t in schools again next!

NV is underrated here. In theory the Ds still have the culinary unions to lean on, however as in other places nationally Latinos trending R could have an outsized impact. Idk how dynamics with Mexican Americans in NV compare to Puerto Ricans in Philly, or so can't speak to how the Latino population trends. Perhaps the economy doing well before COVID is a reason why they swung to Trump in '20 and continued inflation could subsume interregional differences within Latino voters.

Of course, there are still a lot who don't vote and they're a growing share of the voting population. Idk how much it mean nationally or for AZ, or for GA which is seeing a growing share as well in Atlanta metro. Just saying Ds shouldnt think NV's Titanium Tilt D. I'll round out by saying I think GA votes furthest to the left of the Trump-Biden states, if only for what a potential GOP electoral college win looks like.

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