Who would be the stronger Republican Nominee in a General Election: Trump or DeSantis

[OSR stands with Israel]

Im gonna go DeSantis as he can unite both the Bush and Trump wings and he woudnt alienate as many voters with his rhetoric

[President Johnson]

That's a tricky question. Conventional wisdom would be more in DeSantis' side, though we may again underestimate Trump at our own peril. Of course, both have different "strengths" and may very well be they cancel each other out. But even if so, it more depends on who would better suited for the decisive states, particularly in the Midwest. DeSantis may make some inroads in a few suburbs as some people think, but that's wortless if he can't flip at very least Wisconsin. On that one, I'd give Trump an edge.

Also may depend on how Trump's legal problems unfold down the road; if it gets worse, Republicans would most likely be better off with DeSantis. However, I think he's kinda overrated by the media.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Hard to say generally, but for 2024 I have to go with DeSantis. With how badly Biden's approvals are faring, the GOP strategy has to be to ride a wave of anti-Biden sentiment to victory. Trump makes that harder because he has a ton of personal baggage that lowers his ceiling as well as poor message discipline.

[David Hume]

That's a tricky question. Conventional wisdom would be more in DeSantis' side, though we may again underestimate Trump at our own peril. Of course, both have different "strengths" and may very well be they cancel each other out. But even if so, it more depends on who would better suited for the decisive states, particularly in the Midwest. DeSantis may make some inroads in a few suburbs as some people think, but that's wortless if he can't flip at very least Wisconsin. On that one, I'd give Trump an edge.

Also may depend on how Trump's legal problems unfold down the road; if it gets worse, Republicans would most likely be better off with DeSantis. However, I think he's kinda overrated by the media.

DeSantis is way better for AZ, GA, NC, which Trump may lose. And for WI, he may be strong enough to flip WI. His path to victory is clearly easier than Trump.

[Senator Incitatus]

DeSantis, as a virtue of his age and stronger track record.

[Utah Neolib]

I’m actually guessing Trump. If he can run a decent campaign, he can win. He has a base unlike any other, and has advantages in the Midwest like no other Republican. I’m not entirely discounting the possibility of Trump running a campaign entirely focused on “2020 fraud” either. DeSantis just doesn’t have the charisma or backing Trump has. Trump can say “Look at this SAD economy, unlike mine from 2017-2019!.”

[S019]

I think they’d do around the same honestly.

[Rat]

DeSantis is probably the stronger nominee of the two, he's Trump without being too over-the-top to where it alienates independents. However, I think both of them are the two strongest candidates of the likely candidates.

[Politician]

The answer is obviously DeSantis unless you're a Trump cultist or a Hillary Clinton apologist who somehow believes she would have won against a "traditional" Republican.

[MT Treasurer]

The answer is obviously DeSantis unless you're a Trump cultist or a Hillary Clinton apologist who somehow believes she would have won against a "traditional" Republican.

It’s these types of threads which really underscore (a) just how out of touch this forum is, and (b) why this forum gets so many things so ridiculously wrong.

[Sir Mohamed]

The answer is obviously DeSantis unless you're a Trump cultist or a Hillary Clinton apologist who somehow believes she would have won against a "traditional" Republican.

It’s these types of threads which really underscore (a) just how out of touch this forum is, and (b) why this forum gets so many things so ridiculously wrong.

It's quite normal people get stuff wrong about politics and elections, especially when polls are flawed and conventional wisdom seems to count less and less in our days. "The forum" as one bloc doesn't really exist; there are multiple voices with different predictions from very hackish for one side or the other and some, probably even most, in between. So it's not surprising some takes age horribly, especially when we talk about elections months or years before they actually happen and before most actual voters bother to care much.

You and some others like Elections Guy seem to believe in the narrative a majority posters here are liberals out of touch with political realities and who are guilty of wishful thinking, so that everything is great for Dems and the GOP is always doomed when in fact the GOP is the nationally dominant political party. We're just not getting it in our liberal online bubbles. Of course, I'm somewhat exaggerating here... That said, I don't think a majority of predictions are overall too D-friendly here, despite a majority of the forum being liberals and progressives. There are just few posters insisting Dems will make gains in November, and most also express skepticism on polls showing Dems not doing that poorly. And nobody other than OC takes FL polls with Crist leading serious. I think you're being too harsh still because many folks got 2016 dead wrong.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I think it's a wash.  DeSantis has a much better chance in AZ, but the same is true of Trump in MI.  I don't think they'd perform any differently in NV/WI/PA and neither is going to lose NC, lmao.  Georgia is gone in 24, the Reps shouldn't spend a dime there, but will light a quarter billion dollars on fire there because the GOP is run by out of touch dinosaurs like McConnell.  

There is a certain common narrative that a non-Trump Rep would drive significantly less Dem turnout.  I think that's mostly bunk, Romney was lucifer incarnate and Big Ron, Pence, Youngkin etc would be tarred as well.  Dem turnout was so high in 2020 due to COVID/Floyd and VBM, and even then Trump's geographic efficiency was so high that he only lost by 43,000 votes with a terribly run campaign.

Im gonna go DeSantis as he can unite both the Bush and Trump wings and he woudnt alienate as many voters with his rhetoric

There is no "Bush wing" of the party anymore (unless you count resistors who the media props up as "republicans" like Ana Navarro or Bill Kristol).  There is an establishment/McConnell wing of the party, but the Bush name has been toxic for over a decade.

The answer is obviously DeSantis unless you're a Trump cultist or a Hillary Clinton apologist who somehow believes she would have won against a "traditional" Republican.

Lmao.  Hillary probably defeats a generic republican in 2016 (albeit narrowly).  Sure, maybe Rubio or Kasich eke out a razor-thin victory (in WI or PA), or maybe not- no Rep could win CO and VA that year.  

The reason Trump won is he added millions of ancestral democrats to the GOP in the lower midwest (PA/OH/IN/IA) and the upper midwest who by and large voted for Obama.  Jeb Bush couldn't do that, I'm skeptical Ted Cruz could do that.  And these voters trust Trump far more than a pre-Trump Republican.

[EJ24]

Trump drives up Republican turnout significantly. I don't see DeSantis doing the same thing, and the idea that he could win over moderates does not hold water with me. He's to the right of Trump on a lot of social issues and that doesn't play well to suburbanites.

[Frodo]

Ron DeSantis hands down -which is why I want Trump and DeSantis to bloody each other up so badly that by the time the general election rolls around, whoever faces President Biden (preferably Trump) will be too badly wounded to win.  

[MABA 2020]

Seems like this is the consensus opinion but DeSantis would be a far better nominee for the GOP. Trump is one of the few Republicans I could see Biden maybe beating (I mean he did it once already)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither

[Canis]

Desantis
hes basically trump except he doesn't shoot himself in the foot every 30 seconds. Also, Trump juiced up dem turnout and republican turnout so I don't think him being off the ticket would hurt Rs too much.

[BG-NY]

My question from the other thread is still open to anybody who'd like to answer:

He is a much better GE candidate than Trump.

(1) What data (in terms of polling or election results) leads you to believe that?
(2) What would have to happen for you to change your mind?

[Hakudude]

My question from the other thread is still open to anybody who'd like to answer:

He is a much better GE candidate than Trump.

(1) What data (in terms of polling or election results) leads you to believe that?
(2) What would have to happen for you to change your mind?

(1)

I feel that DeSantis has nearly the perfect profile for a Republican candidate. He's a popular governor from a swing state, has military experience, studied in Harvard (which might help to improve among educated voters) yet doesn't sound elitist and isn't even rich. Being Catholic and having Italian ascendance could help him with these electors. Appearance definitely matters and being only 46 in 2024 with a young family can be helpful. DeSantis is viewed as a moderate Republican (for instance unlike some other governors he's only for a 15 weeks period of abortion when an important number would prefer an ouright ban) and can appeal both to the Etablishment wing and the Trump wing of the party.

DeSantis would most likely perform in Suburb thanks to being more moderate than Trump and that's going to matter a lot in key states like Arizona or Georgia, while doing just slightly less in rural areas.

Trump motivates Democrats to vote as we saw in the 2020 election, where voters turned out way more than usual. With DeSantis, Democrats would probably be less enthusiast to vote because he's much less controversial than Trump and would control himself. On the contrary, the Republican turnout wouldn't decrease as he can appeal to every wing of the party. And, unlike Trump, he wouldn't turn aside Republican voters (i.e the Romney-Clinton or Rubio-Clinton voters).

I also think DeSantis would have a better VP pick for Trump, who is most likely goinf go to choose someone loyal to him like Noem. DeSantis is going to choose whoever might advantage him the most (like Youngkin, Tim Scott or Haley) and someone uncontroversial.

Looking at swing states, i'd give an edge to DeSantis in all of them. Arizona is definitely better for him as he would fare better in Phoenix suburb and most likely among mormons. Trump remarks on McCain really hurt him in the state and DeSantis woudln't have to deal with that. Georgia also looks better for DeSantis, as Democrats would probably turnout less and he would make gains in the Atlanta suburb, while still doing great in rural areas. Nevada would probably be more or less the same but not facing Trump, democrats could have a problem in turnout (and DeSantis might be a better fit for latinos). The Rust Belt trio could be a bit better for DeSantis thanks to decreased turnout in big cities and gain in surbub while still performing well in rural areas. New Hampshire, as shown by the recent poll is way better for DeSantis whereas it wouldn't be competitive assuming Trump is the candidate.


As for datas, I think the recent polls show that DeSantis is a stronger candidate. DeSantis, accoring to the poll wins New Hampshire by 1 while Trump loses by 7, an 8 point difference !  The yougov poll shows about the same margins but with more indecided, who seem more winnable by DeSantis than Trump because the latter is more known.

Trump clearly underperforms Republicans both in 2016 and 2020, despite the decrease of ticket splitting.

In 2016, Trump underperformed by 4% the Republicans running for House of Representative in Arizona, by nearly 6% in Pennsylvania and by 10% in Georgia. Obviously, there is the incumbency effect but still, Trump appeared back then as a weak candidate among other Republicans.

In 2020, it was less drastic but still viewable. Republicans actually won the House popular vote in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is a bit different in the sense that Biden had a native son bonus but if Trump performed as well as other Republican candidates, even discouting Pennslvania he'd have won the election. Some senators like Perdue and Cornyn outperformed Trump in term of raw vote, despite having less voters in their election, showng that he underperformed. Incumbency didn't even matter here because in Arizona, there were more Democrat incumbent, yet the Republican barely won the popular vote.

As for DeSantis, he did well in 2018, winning despite a massive blue wave.


(2)

I think the score of DeSantis in the gubernational election and in the primary could change my mind. Assuming Florida is contested and he barely wins (like a 5% margin of a victory), I would be more dubious about him. How DeSantis fares in the primary will be important because if he barely wins, he'll have less chance in the general election.

Also, as Trump will run in the primary as well, assuming he loses, he'll try everything to harm DeSantis and tht court hurt him with a big drop in turnout of hardcore trumpist.

[Fuzzy Bear]

DeSantis would be the stronger candidate.

I'm not convinced Trump is running, although I'm convinced he wants people to think he is.

[jaichind]

In theory, DeSantis assuming he has Trump's support.  A disengaged or hostile Trump would doom DeSantis.   This is why I prefer Trump runs for GOP in 2024.  We avoid the problem of a hostile Trump undermining the alternative GOP candidate and Trump is better for the GOP down-ballot than DeSantis.

[Inmate Trump]

Trump is the only one who might lose to Biden. DeSantis isn’t a total moron, he won’t go out of his way to alienate and divide as many people, and he’ll be able to debate Biden without coming off like an imbecile. The only reason Biden won the 2020 debates was because Trump was hateful and interrupted every statement Joe made. Ron won’t do that.

DeSantis also isn’t in legal jeopardy.

I would much prefer DeSantis as president than another four years of Trump. DeSantis wouldn’t try to overthrow the government.

[TPIG]

Trump motivates the Democratic base like no other human alive, whereas the limited evidence we have since Trump's departure suggests Republicans are still as motivated as ever to vote, even without him on the ballot. Given that, it's safe to say that DeSantis can motivate the base, is far less divisive and is actually sane. He'd easily beat Biden or most any other Democratic nominee. Also, as a pretty huge cherry on top, he doesn't threaten to destroy the Constitution for the sake of his ego.