dw93
DWL
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Posts: 4,881
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« on: July 04, 2022, 11:56:12 AM » |
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« edited: July 04, 2022, 12:13:14 PM by dw93 »
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For my list, I'm using declared candidates that were either nominated or had a realistic shot at being the nominee. Bolded candidate is the candidate that I would want to win in said match up and I have maps as I don't have the time. Will provide further elaboration for some elections:
1968: George Romney vs. Hubert Humphrey 1972: Richard Nixon vs. Edmund Muskie 1976: Ronald Reagan vs. Scoop Jackson 1980: George HW Bush vs. Jimmy Carter 1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Gary Hart 1988: George HW. Bush vs. Dick Gephardt 1992: George HW. Bush vs. Tom Harkin 1996: Pat Buchanan vs. Bill Clinton 2000: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore 2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry 2008: Mitt Romney vs. Hillary Clinton 2012: Rick Santorum vs. Barack Obama 2016: Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton 2020: Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden (though by a much larger margin that in Real life)
Elaborations:
1968: Romney winning means the more moderate, Rockefeller wing lives on longer and does so without Rockefeller's personal baggage. Any righward realignment that comes is less likely to be social/cultural without Nixon's southern strategy.
1984: While I'd personally vote Hart in this matchup, Reagan had no primary challenge of significance and no Democrat was winning the general election with things as they were, so if a Democrat has to go down to decisive defeat, I'd rather it be "Atari" Democrat Gary Hart as that would likely discredit the DLC, "third way" types that emerged after a Mondale loss.
1996: While I personally prefer Dole to Buchanan, Buchanan would lose in a legit landslide and said landslide loss would smother modern Paleoconservatism in its crib.
2008: 08 was too soon for Obama and if there's one candidate Hillary Clinton could beat in a (abet in a modern sense) landslide, it's vulture captialist Mitt Romney in the midst of the worst financial crash since 1929. Romeny going down in a landslide may even push the GOP in a more moderate direction economically too.
2012: A reactionary theocrat neocon like Santorum would go down worse than Romney did against Obama and would likely moderate the GOP socially.
2016: Cruz had many of Trump's negatives without any of the showmanship and working class appeal. Cruz losing would put the notion that Republicans have that they "only win with a True Conservative" to rest.
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