1968-2020: How I wish they went
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:36:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  1968-2020: How I wish they went
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 1968-2020: How I wish they went  (Read 1083 times)
BushKerry04
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 01, 2022, 01:47:21 PM »

In designing this, I based it solely on announced candidates/hypothetical general election match-ups each year and show how I would have liked the results to have looked. I'm not basing each subsequent result on the prior election's results.

1968:
Quote

1972:
Quote

1976:
Quote

1980:
Quote

1984:
Quote

1988:
Quote

1992:
Quote

1996:
Quote

2000:
Quote

2004:
Quote

2008:
Quote

2012:
Quote

2016:
Quote

2020:
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2022, 01:57:00 PM »

Not gonna do maps here and also gonna keep this semi realistic so I wont keep the GOP to Dem win ratio at more than 2:1.


1968: Nixon over Humphrey
1972: Nixon over McGovern

1976: Jackson over Ford
1980: Reagan over Brown
1984: Reagan over Hollings
1988: HW over Gore

1992: Clinton over HW
1996: Clinton over Dole

2000: Bush over Gore
2004: Bush over Gephardt

2008: Obama over McCain
2012: Romney over Obama
2016: Kasich over Clinton

2020: Bloomberg over Trump


So 9 GOP wins to 5 Dem ones and the 5 Dem ones are the one I would have the least problem with the GOP losing without hindsight(otherwise 2004 and 2008 would be flipped for sure)
Logged
Blow by blow, the passion dies
LeonelBrizola
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2022, 04:55:28 PM »

My battery is running out and I'm lazy to make so many elections.

Here's 1972 from the perspective of a WWC populist (what I would do in the US)

Logged
BushKerry04
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 612


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2022, 11:17:29 PM »

Not gonna do maps here and also gonna keep this semi realistic so I wont keep the GOP to Dem win ratio at more than 2:1.


1968: Nixon over Humphrey
1972: Nixon over McGovern

1976: Jackson over Ford
1980: Reagan over Brown
1984: Reagan over Hollings
1988: HW over Gore

1992: Clinton over HW
1996: Clinton over Dole

2000: Bush over Gore
2004: Bush over Gephardt

2008: Obama over McCain
2012: Romney over Obama
2016: Kasich over Clinton

2020: Bloomberg over Trump


So 9 GOP wins to 5 Dem ones and the 5 Dem ones are the one I would have the least problem with the GOP losing without hindsight(otherwise 2004 and 2008 would be flipped for sure)

I can respect this.

My battery is running out and I'm lazy to make so many elections.

Here's 1972 from the perspective of a WWC populist (what I would do in the US)



Looks good!
Logged
Goldwater
Republitarian
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,064
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: -4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2022, 12:57:09 AM »

If I limit myself to the IRL primary candidates and have same party win each election they did in reality, I think it would be:

1968: George Romney vs. Hubert Humphrey
1972: Richard Nixon vs. Scoop Jackson
1976: Scoop Jackson vs. Ronald Reagan
1980: John Anderson vs. Jimmy Carter
1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Gary Hart
1988: Jack Kemp vs. Al Gore
1992: Jerry Brown vs. George H.W. Bush
1996: Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole
2000: John McCain vs. Al Gore
2004: George W. Bush vs. Wesley Clark
2008: Barack Obama vs. John McCain
2012: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney
2016: John Kasich vs. Hillary Clinton
2020: Pete Buttigieg vs. Bill Weld
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,870
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2022, 11:56:12 AM »
« Edited: July 04, 2022, 12:13:14 PM by dw93 »

For my list, I'm using declared candidates that were either nominated or had a realistic shot at being the nominee. Bolded candidate is the candidate that I would want to win in said match up and I have maps as I don't have the time. Will provide further elaboration for some elections:

1968: George Romney vs. Hubert Humphrey
1972: Richard Nixon vs. Edmund Muskie
1976: Ronald Reagan vs. Scoop Jackson
1980: George HW Bush vs. Jimmy Carter
1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Gary Hart
1988: George HW. Bush vs. Dick Gephardt
1992: George HW. Bush vs. Tom Harkin
1996: Pat Buchanan vs. Bill Clinton
2000: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore
2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry
2008: Mitt Romney vs. Hillary Clinton
2012: Rick Santorum vs. Barack Obama
2016: Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton
2020: Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden (though by a much larger margin that in Real life)

Elaborations:

1968: Romney winning means the more moderate, Rockefeller wing lives on longer and does so without Rockefeller's personal baggage.  Any righward realignment that comes is less likely to be social/cultural without Nixon's southern strategy.

1984: While I'd personally vote Hart in this matchup, Reagan had no primary challenge of significance and no Democrat was winning the general election with things as they were, so if a Democrat has to go down to decisive defeat, I'd rather it be "Atari" Democrat Gary Hart as that would likely discredit the DLC, "third way" types that emerged after a Mondale loss.

1996: While I personally prefer Dole to Buchanan, Buchanan would lose in a legit landslide and said landslide loss would smother modern Paleoconservatism in its crib.

2008: 08 was too soon for Obama and if there's one candidate Hillary Clinton could beat in a (abet in a modern sense) landslide, it's vulture captialist Mitt Romney in the midst of the worst financial crash since 1929. Romeny going down in a landslide may even push the GOP in a more moderate direction economically too.

2012: A reactionary theocrat neocon like Santorum would go down worse than Romney did against Obama and would likely moderate the GOP socially.

2016: Cruz had many of Trump's negatives without any of the showmanship and working class appeal. Cruz losing would put the notion that Republicans have that they "only win with a True Conservative" to rest.
Logged
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,296
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2022, 03:39:28 PM »

1968: Humphrey (D) def. Nixon (R)
1972: Nixon (R) def. McGovern (D)
1976: Jackson (D) def. Reagan (R)
1980: Bush (R) def. Kennedy (D)
1984: Reagan (R) def. Mondale (D)
1988: Bush (R) def. Dukakis (D)
1992: Bush (R) def. Clinton (D)
1996: Clinton (D) def. Quayle (R)
2000: Gore (D) def. Bush (R)
2004: Bush (R) def. Kerry (D)
2008: Obama (D) def. McCain (R)
2012: Romney (R) def. Obama (D)
2016: Clinton (D) def. Trump (R)
2020: Weld (R) def. Biden (D)
Logged
Blow by blow, the passion dies
LeonelBrizola
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,519
Brazil


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 08, 2022, 02:57:06 PM »

1976

Logged
darklordoftech
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,391
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2022, 02:54:33 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2022, 07:07:44 PM by darklordoftech »

1968: George Romney vs. Hubert Humphrey
1972: Richard Nixon vs. George McGovern
1976: Gerald Ford vs. Scoop Jackson
1980: John Anderson vs. Jimmy Carter
1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale
1988: Pat Robertson vs. Paul Simon
1992: George HW. Bush vs. Tom Harkin
1996: Pat Buchanan vs. Bill Clinton
2000: Gary Bauer vs. Al Gore
2004: George W. Bush vs. Howard Dean
2008: Mike Huckabee vs. Hillary Clinton
2012: Donald Trump vs. Barack Obama
2016: Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
2020: Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

For my list, I'm using declared candidates that were either nominated or had a realistic shot at being the nominee. Bolded candidate is the candidate that I would want to win in said match up and I have maps as I don't have the time. Will provide further elaboration for some elections:

1968: George Romney vs. Hubert Humphrey
1972: Richard Nixon vs. Edmund Muskie
1976: Ronald Reagan vs. Scoop Jackson
1980: George HW Bush vs. Jimmy Carter
1984: Ronald Reagan vs. Gary Hart
1988: George HW. Bush vs. Dick Gephardt
1992: George HW. Bush vs. Tom Harkin
1996: Pat Buchanan vs. Bill Clinton
2000: George W. Bush vs. Al Gore
2004: George W. Bush vs. John Kerry
2008: Mitt Romney vs. Hillary Clinton
2012: Rick Santorum vs. Barack Obama
2016: Ted Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton
2020: Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden (though by a much larger margin that in Real life)

Why Scoop Jackson for 1976 and why Dick Gephardt for 1988?
Logged
West_Midlander
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,963
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.19, S: 1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2022, 07:04:58 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2022, 05:38:38 AM by West_Midlander »

1972: Nixon elected by 9.7% nationally over Shirley Chisholm

1976-84: No change
1988: Gore narrowly defeated by Bush

1992-96: Perot wins over Gore, Bush, and then Elizabeth Dole, Harkin

1996

2000-04: McCain wins over Bill Bradley, Wesley Clark - same maps as IOTL
2008: Nader defeats Gravel, Rudy Giuliani

2012: Nader* defeats Vermin Supreme (D), Ron Paul

2016: Sanders narrowly defeats Trump - Clinton 2016 map + MI, WI, PA
2020: Trump narrowly defeats Sanders - Trump 2016 map - MI, NE-02

*runs in 2012 ITTL

As a bonus, I will do 2024 (as of today ITTL):

2024 Polling - General Election
Pres. Donald Trump 47%
Fmr. Pres. Bernie Sanders 46%

Pres. Donald Trump 48%
Generic Democrat 44%

2024 Polling - D Primary
Fmr. Pres. Sanders Independent 37% (Expressed Interest in Running)
Sen. Sherrod Brown 10% (Won't run if Sanders runs)
Rep. Ro Khanna 7% (Won't run if Sanders runs)
Gov. Roy Cooper 5% (Expressed Interest in Running)
Fmr. VP Tulsi Gabbard 4% (Won't run if Sanders runs)
Sen. Joe Manchin 4% (Potential candidate)
Gov. Jared Polis 3% (Potential candidate)
Gov. Andy Beshear 2% (Expressed Interest in Running)
Mr. Bill Maher 2% (Expressed Interest in Running)
Ms. Marianne Williamson 2% (Potential candidate)
Mr. Jimmy Dore People's 1% (Won't run if Sanders runs)
Undecided/DK 24%

Brown is the immediate frontrunner, polling at 26%, in a Sanders-less race. Gabbard polls poorly among Democrats due to her rightward shift once out of office as VP ITTL. Gabbard, however, launches past Cooper into a close third in a Sanders-less race.
Logged
President of the civil service full of trans activists
Peebs
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,926
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2022, 04:00:33 PM »

1968: Humphrey def. Reagan

1972: Humphrey (inc.) def. Rockefeller

1976: Buckley def. Muskie (inc.)

1980: Church def. Buckley (inc.)

1984: Bayh (inc.) def. Bush

1988: Bayh (inc.) def. Dole

1992: Biden def. Janklow

1996: Kolbe def. Biden (inc.)

2000: Janklow def. Hunt (Pres. Kolbe defeated in primary)

2004: Jeb! def. Sanders

2008: Biden def. Jeb! (inc.)

2012: Wellstone def. Santorum

2016: Wellstone (inc.) def. Trump

2020: Cotton def. Klobuchar

2024: Pritzker, as of July 2022, leads the field to face Cotton (inc.)

Ignore that I went ham with the butterflies, okay?

Just for fun, same TL (but not same maps) with OTL candidates:
1968: Humphrey def. Reagan
1972: Humphrey def. Ashbrook
1976: Reagan def. Udall
1980: Carter def. Reagan
1984: Mondale def. Reagan
1988: Jackson def. Robertson
1992: Harkin def. Buchanan
1996: Specter def. Clinton
2000: McCain def. Bradley
2004: Bush def. Kerry
2008: Kucinich def. Giuliani
2012: Obama def. Santorum
2016: Sanders def. Trump
2020: Fellure def. Sanders
Logged
Pres Mike
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,243
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2022, 05:38:33 PM »

Who I would have voted in each election

1968: HHH
1972: Nixon
1976: Carter
1980: Reagan
1984: Reagan
1988: Bush
1992: Clinton
1996: Clinton
2000: Gore
2004: Kerry
2008: Obama
2012: Obama
2016: Hillary
2020: Biden
Logged
BigVic
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,482
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2022, 09:00:09 AM »

In designing this, I based it solely on announced candidates/hypothetical general election match-ups each year and show how I would have liked the results to have looked. I'm not basing each subsequent result on the prior election's results.

1968:
Quote

1972:
Quote

1976:
Quote

1980:
Quote

1984:
Quote

1988:
Quote

1992:
Quote

1996:
Quote

2000:
Quote

2004:
Quote

2008:
Quote

2012:
Quote

2016:
Quote

2020:


20 years of Republican rule from 1976-1996
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.089 seconds with 11 queries.