TX-GOV (CBS/YouGov): Abbott +8

[wbrocks67]

Abbott (R) 49%
O'Rourke (D) 41%

6/22-27, LV model

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/law-enforcement-could-have-done-more-to-stop-uvalde-shooting-opinion-poll-2022-06-30/

OF NOTE: (Interviews for this poll  were conducted mostly before the Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade was handed down - https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1542648445068001281)

YouGov's last poll has Abbott +11 in April
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1521853116261490689

[2016]

This is the KEY here. According to that Poll Abortion hasn't been even the Top 5 List in TX
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1542504758706966531

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah we don't need TX Rs are loosing in the states that matter that's All

Inflation and Gas prices are a worlrldwide problem even if Rs get control which they wont in the Senate there isn't anything they can do about it the IPSOS poll That HAS BIDEN AT 36 PERCENT HAD Rs Approvals of Biden at 7, the Rs are driving down Biden Approvals not Indies and Ds

[wbrocks67]

This is the KEY here. According to that Poll Abortion hasn't been even the Top 5 List in TX
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1542504758706966531

That account is lying. CBS literally posted this about their own poll: "(Interviews for this poll  were conducted mostly before the Court’s decision to overturn Roe v Wade was handed down)"

https://twitter.com/CBSNewsPoll/status/1542648445068001281

[wbrocks67]

It would appear that Abbott has numerous liabilities, and he had nearly a -20 approval on abortion here, even when most of it was taking pre-Dobbs

Abbott’s response to Uvalde shooting: 45% good, 55% bad

Cruz approval: 42/58 (-16)
Cornyn approval: 35/65 (-30!!!)

Abbott approval: 46/54 (-8)
Biden approval: 41/59 (-18)

Abbott’s approval on…
Education: 54/46 (+8)
Economy: 50/50 (=)
Race relations: 48/52 (-4)
Situation at the border: 44/56 (-12)
Gun policy: 43/57 (-14)
Abortion: 41/59 (-18)
The state’s electric grid: 37/63 (-26)
Gas prices: 27/73 (-46)

[Politician]

Safe R

[2016]

It would appear that Abbott has numerous liabilities, and he had nearly a -20 approval on abortion here, even when most of it was taking pre-Dobbs

Abbott’s response to Uvalde shooting: 45% good, 55% bad

Cruz approval: 42/58 (-16)
Cornyn approval: 35/65 (-30!!!)

Abbott approval: 46/54 (-8)
Biden approval: 41/59 (-18)

Abbott’s approval on…
Education: 54/46 (+8)
Economy: 50/50 (=)
Race relations: 48/52 (-4)
Situation at the border: 44/56 (-12)
Gun policy: 43/57 (-14)
Abortion: 41/59 (-18)
The state’s electric grid: 37/63 (-26)
Gas prices: 27/73 (-46)

YouGov is consistently overestimating Demcorats in their Polls. Abbott will not lose this in this years Political Environment and O'Rourke is too liberal for the State.

[wbrocks67]

It would appear that Abbott has numerous liabilities, and he had nearly a -20 approval on abortion here, even when most of it was taking pre-Dobbs

Abbott’s response to Uvalde shooting: 45% good, 55% bad

Cruz approval: 42/58 (-16)
Cornyn approval: 35/65 (-30!!!)

Abbott approval: 46/54 (-8)
Biden approval: 41/59 (-18)

Abbott’s approval on…
Education: 54/46 (+8)
Economy: 50/50 (=)
Race relations: 48/52 (-4)
Situation at the border: 44/56 (-12)
Gun policy: 43/57 (-14)
Abortion: 41/59 (-18)
The state’s electric grid: 37/63 (-26)
Gas prices: 27/73 (-46)

YouGov is consistently overestimating Demcorats in their Polls. Abbott will not lose this in this years Political Environment and O'Rourke is too liberal for the State.

their GCB just this week was R+5.

[2016]

It would appear that Abbott has numerous liabilities, and he had nearly a -20 approval on abortion here, even when most of it was taking pre-Dobbs

Abbott’s response to Uvalde shooting: 45% good, 55% bad

Cruz approval: 42/58 (-16)
Cornyn approval: 35/65 (-30!!!)

Abbott approval: 46/54 (-8)
Biden approval: 41/59 (-18)

Abbott’s approval on…
Education: 54/46 (+8)
Economy: 50/50 (=)
Race relations: 48/52 (-4)
Situation at the border: 44/56 (-12)
Gun policy: 43/57 (-14)
Abortion: 41/59 (-18)
The state’s electric grid: 37/63 (-26)
Gas prices: 27/73 (-46)

YouGov is consistently overestimating Demcorats in their Polls. Abbott will not lose this in this years Political Environment and O'Rourke is too liberal for the State.

their GCB just this week was R+5.

Yes but look at the YouGov Polls from January until the end of May/early June where Democrats came consistently ahead in the GCB while others had D's behind.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

It would appear that Abbott has numerous liabilities, and he had nearly a -20 approval on abortion here, even when most of it was taking pre-Dobbs

Abbott’s response to Uvalde shooting: 45% good, 55% bad

Cruz approval: 42/58 (-16)
Cornyn approval: 35/65 (-30!!!)

Abbott approval: 46/54 (-8)
Biden approval: 41/59 (-18)

Abbott’s approval on…
Education: 54/46 (+8)
Economy: 50/50 (=)
Race relations: 48/52 (-4)
Situation at the border: 44/56 (-12)
Gun policy: 43/57 (-14)
Abortion: 41/59 (-18)
The state’s electric grid: 37/63 (-26)
Gas prices: 27/73 (-46)

YouGov is consistently overestimating Demcorats in their Polls. Abbott will not lose this in this years Political Environment and O'Rourke is too liberal for the State.

their GCB just this week was R+5.

Yes but look at the YouGov Polls from January until the end of May/early June where Democrats came consistently ahead in the GCB while others had D's behind.

So now that they have the result that you want it's no longer overestimation?

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R

[UncleSam]

It would appear that Abbott has numerous liabilities, and he had nearly a -20 approval on abortion here, even when most of it was taking pre-Dobbs

Abbott’s response to Uvalde shooting: 45% good, 55% bad

Cruz approval: 42/58 (-16)
Cornyn approval: 35/65 (-30!!!)

Abbott approval: 46/54 (-8)
Biden approval: 41/59 (-18)

Abbott’s approval on…
Education: 54/46 (+8)
Economy: 50/50 (=)
Race relations: 48/52 (-4)
Situation at the border: 44/56 (-12)
Gun policy: 43/57 (-14)
Abortion: 41/59 (-18)
The state’s electric grid: 37/63 (-26)
Gas prices: 27/73 (-46)

YouGov is consistently overestimating Demcorats in their Polls. Abbott will not lose this in this years Political Environment and O'Rourke is too liberal for the State.

their GCB just this week was R+5.

Yes but look at the YouGov Polls from January until the end of May/early June where Democrats came consistently ahead in the GCB while others had D's behind.

So now that they have the result that you want it's no longer overestimation?

No he’s saying the opposite: that just because they have one or two polls consistent with his beliefs, doesn’t mean that they don’t overestimate Dems in general. It’s a consistent position to take logically, just an obvious partisan hack position.

YouGov seems fine overall and this poll implies that Abbott is Likely R and maybe even Safe R to win in November. It’ll probably be about 8-12 points in the end. Doesn’t mean Beto can’t come back though, and maybe Dobbs will have a big impact here as elsewhere (since it mostly didn’t impact this poll).

[Cyrusman]

The abortion ruling won’t change this much. Texas already passed one of the harshest abortion bills in the country. Abortion was pretty much already “illegal” in Texas.

[President Johnson]

Approval ratings on "gas prices" is a silly question, isn't it? Of course has prices are too high, but why are they asking about Abbott? I don't like the guy at all, but these are really not his fault. Neither his nor Biden's. There's no magic button the Oval Office or Governor's Office to press and prices at the pump drop.

Anyway, this race is not really competitive. An eight point margin would still not be all too bad for Beto.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Approval ratings on "gas prices" is a silly question, isn't it? Of course has prices are too high, but why are they asking about Abbott? I don't like the guy at all, but these are really not his fault. Neither his nor Biden's. There's no magic button the Oval Office or Governor's Office to press and prices at the pump drop.

Anyway, this race is not really competitive. An eight point margin would still not be all too bad for Beto.

I just saw on MSNBC that Rs in OH are going after contraceptive, it doesn't matter about Approvals they are pre Election polls its about Turnout otherwise Trump whom had the same 44% Approvals not 36% wouldn't have netted H seats in 2018/20, and black and brown and female votes not White Evangelical vote we won last time 50%/45 30% Black and Brown and 20% White and Rs won 40% white and 5% other for 80/75M

Give it time for OH, TX and FL and NC EDay is 150 days away and Elections don't take place on the 4th it takes place after Labor Day we have enough seats in both chambers to net the TRIFECTA again

It's VBM anyways we may not get immediately results like last time it's not same day vote

[MT Treasurer]

The O'Rourke campaign is basically learning the hard way that this isn’t 2018 -

In recent days, the Republican governor’s campaign has announced nearly $20 million in early ad buys for the general election, emphasizing what has been a massive financial advantage over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. The ad reservations include $2.75 million for Hispanic media, $8.8 million separately for TV and $8.15 million for digital platforms.

As of the last campaign finance report in mid-February, Abbott had $49.8 million cash on hand to O’Rourke’s $6.8 million. The next fundraising report is due July 15, and it will cover the candidates’ finances through June.

O’Rourke intends to go on TV but has not announced any specific plans yet. He has been fundraising off Abbott’s ad-buy announcements, urging supporters “to make sure that we have the resources to fight back.”

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/29/greg-abbott-ad-buy-beto-orourke/

Safe R, obviously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The O'Rourke campaign is basically learning the hard way that this isn’t 2018 -

In recent days, the Republican governor’s campaign has announced nearly $20 million in early ad buys for the general election, emphasizing what has been a massive financial advantage over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. The ad reservations include $2.75 million for Hispanic media, $8.8 million separately for TV and $8.15 million for digital platforms.

As of the last campaign finance report in mid-February, Abbott had $49.8 million cash on hand to O’Rourke’s $6.8 million. The next fundraising report is due July 15, and it will cover the candidates’ finances through June.

O’Rourke intends to go on TV but has not announced any specific plans yet. He has been fundraising off Abbott’s ad-buy announcements, urging supporters “to make sure that we have the resources to fight back.”

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/29/greg-abbott-ad-buy-beto-orourke/

Safe R, obviously.

It's not 2004 or 2010 or 2014 either with your R nut map we lead in every blue wall state despite Biden low Approvals and your Adam Laxalt is losing and so is LePage

CCM 46/43
Mills 51/46
Golden def Poliquin 50/44

Trump netted seats at 44 Approvals in S 2018 and the H 202o

D's can't win red states weren't AZ, GA, NV, CO and VA red before 2006 and we win them, we can turn OH and FL and NC blue again

It's obviously a 303 map but wave insurance is for the H as D's are confident we're gonna hold a 51/49 S but OH, NC and FL are wave insurance in case we lose GA in a Runoff

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto hasn't aired a single ad it says in Article