Election models megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

He's just doing us all a service by keeping track of polling averages.

You, on the other hand, are an annoying troll with atrocious grammar and political knowledge. Also, since you love bragging about BASED DESANTIS's excellent polling average, I don't see why you'd oppose that.

[2016]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

I don't live or die by them.  I just report them because I like numbers.

I like numbers too

That being said I do consider most of these Forecaster uber partisan hacks and they have lost a lot of credibility with me over the last 3 Election Cycles

I used to spent a lot of time on 538 in 2008 & 2012 and they were really good back then.

Unfortunately Nate "Plastic" Silver has become a complete partisan hack.

[Person Man]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 12):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 74 (-3)
538 Classic 70 (-4)
538 Deluxe 62 (-4)
DDHQ 61.4 (-5.4)
JHK 64.0 (-2.9)

House R chances (most to least):

JHK 80.7 (+6.
DDHQ 77.8 (+2.1)
538 Classic 73 (+2)
538 Deluxe 73 (+2)
538 Lite 67 (+3)
Economist 65 (nc)

Significant movement toward the Republicans since the last update.

Where do you see this being on election day if this is the case?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 12):

Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (-1)
538 Lite 74 (-3)
538 Classic 70 (-4)
538 Deluxe 62 (-4)
DDHQ 61.4 (-5.4)
JHK 64.0 (-2.9)

House R chances (most to least):

JHK 80.7 (+6.
DDHQ 77.8 (+2.1)
538 Classic 73 (+2)
538 Deluxe 73 (+2)
538 Lite 67 (+3)
Economist 65 (nc)

Significant movement toward the Republicans since the last update.

Where do you see this being on election day if this is the case?

If this week's level of movement continued, holding the Senate would be a tossup at best and the House would be very likely to flip.  But it's sheer folly to assume a straight-line extrapolation of one week's movement; last week there was very slight movement, and a few weeks ago the trend was moving in the other direction.  The current trend might continue, stop, or reverse again.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Unfortunately Nate "Plastic" Silver has become a complete partisan hack.

My impression is that the Twitter consensus has come to believe Nate Silver is a Republican partisan hack due to some of his positions on covid.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

538 has Democrats' odds of holding the Senate at 63%, which is their lowest number since August 23rd.

I would guess that most of the movement in all of 538's models today is due to changes in the generic ballot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unfortunately Nate "Plastic" Silver has become a complete partisan hack.

My impression is that the Twitter consensus has come to believe Nate Silver is a Republican partisan hack due to some of his positions on covid.

Silver himself def seems to be somewhat of a moderate Democrat but also develops his own nuanced opinions on certain topics such as COVID. The people running any of these forecasting sites def have some degree of bias, the issue is how much they let it interfere. I tend to find Silver's models imperfect but pretty objective compared to RCP which basically sorts out the polls they dislike and also has way too many tossups so they can never be called out for wrong predictions.

[Sorenroy]

538 has Democrats' odds of holding the Senate at 63%, which is their lowest number since August 23rd. It's a bit odd because the Classic and Light versions of the model still have their odds higher - 70% and 75% respectively, and the models (I think) are supposed to converge by election day, although the other models also have Democrats' chances decreasing over the last couple of weeks. But I'm not really sure what could be driving the Deluxe model specifically to be so bearish on their chances when I think the only difference it has with the Classic model is experts' ratings and I don't remember any huge shifts in the ratings to Republicans in recent weeks, just maybe a few bad polls which should show up in the other models too.

You're thinking of what 538 has done previously with their "Now-cast" when it comes to models converging. Lite, Classic, and Deluxe are all separate models using different metrics for their outputs. Any convergence will be a result of additional polling, which will allow for less reliance on the fundamentals and be given increased weighting the closer we get to election day.

As for the differences between the Deluxe and other models, that's more because of the long-established expert forecasts rather than any changes of the experts' numbers. In terms of actual change, the Deluxe model has fallen from a Democratic high of a 71% chance to win the Senate to 62% (a 9% fall). The Classic and Lite models show Democratic chances higher, but have both seen similar falloffs (10% and 8% respectively). Basically, the experts that 538 accounts for have always seen the Republican's chances as better than otherwise forcasted, which is why at any point in the forecast the Deluxe model has given Dems worse odds.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really wish 538’s models had options for “only include Trafalgar polls” and “exclude all Trafalgar polls”.

[soundchaser]

I really wish 538’s models had options for “only include Trafalgar polls” and “exclude all Trafalgar polls”.

The former is just RCP.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Somebody did an interview with Wasserman and he said the following:

-Democrats are facing a category 2 or 3 hurricane in the house

-The 80/20 rule still stands for how many tossup wins are needed for control, but also saying that there are a ton of lean D seats (including Maloney and Porter) and there will probably be more of those that fall compared to lean R seats

-The senate is close to 50/50

-He thinks 43% is where Franken could end up

-He trashed Cahaly for not disclosing his sampling methods lol

This is unrelated to the interview, but a republican operative in Wasserman’s timeline thinks Nevada is a done deal. No idea where he got this from but interesting.

[2016]

This Thread is worth a read by Elliott G. Morris about the "Center Street Pac" Polls
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583122747492028416

What do you think?

P. S. Leave a Comment below if you have a thought!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

No comment, but thank you for reminding me about G.E. Morris! He was always a great read during the run-up to the 2020 election.  

[2016]

Somebody did an interview with Wasserman and he said the following:

-Democrats are facing a category 2 or 3 hurricane in the house

-The 80/20 rule still stands for how many tossup wins are needed for control, but also saying that there are a ton of lean D seats (including Maloney and Porter) and there will probably be more of those that fall compared to lean R seats

-The senate is close to 50/50

-He thinks 43% is where Franken could end up

-He trashed Cahaly for not disclosing his sampling methods lol

This is unrelated to the interview, but a republican operative in Wasserman’s timeline thinks Nevada is a done deal. No idea where he got this from but interesting.

Wasserman should know that Nevada is "Fools Gold" for Republicans. They will never win a Statewide Race for either Governor, Senator or President for the next 50 years which is why I think the Senate will be 51-49 D.

[Unelectable Bystander]

538 is by no means perfect and I have issues with their models, but it is something quantifiable. The house is now 78-22 and senate is 59-41. Notably, Nevada is now tilting towards Laxalt and Oz has passed the Dems in OH/NC/WI.

The senate will end up in tossup territory at this rate once Vance, Budd, and Johnson’s odds increase towards where Rubio is. Democrats are still inflated, for that matter, by the fact that 538 thinks those are all more likely to flip than Arizona.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 is by no means perfect and I have issues with their models, but it is something quantifiable. The house is now 78-22 and senate is 59-41. Notably, Nevada is now tilting towards Laxalt and Oz has passed the Dems in OH/NC/WI.

The senate will end up in tossup territory at this rate once Vance, Budd, and Johnson’s odds increase towards where Rubio is. Democrats are still inflated, for that matter, by the fact that 538 thinks those are all more likely to flip than Arizona.

Johnson chances increase lol do you think Barnes is gonna lose by 5 and Evers gonna win by 5 no Obama is coming in and campaign for Barnes, and Cook and Sabato and 538 had WI GOV Lean R with Walker the whole 2o18 and they were wrong then and wrong now and they had AK Rep Tilt R and Ds won AK

Drazen was up the same margin as Johnson now is up and now she is behind the samething is gonna happen in. wI it's a 303 map anyways

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current models, with change from last update (Oct. 18).  The Economist models have been frozen since Oct. 16.  I sent G. Elliott Morris a DM asking about this but didn't get a response (I'm sure he gets tons of them).


Senate D chances (most to least):

Economist 80 (not updated since Oct. 16)
538 Lite 69 (-5)
538 Classic 65 (-5)
JHK 58.6 (-5.4)
538 Deluxe 56 (-6)
DDHQ 55.9 (-5.5)


House R chances (most to least):

JHK 86.5 (+5.
538 Deluxe 81 (+8)
538 Classic 80 (+7)
DDHQ 79.1 (+1.3)
538 Lite 73 (+6)
Economist 65 (not updated since Oct. 16)


Strong movement toward the Republicans since the last update.  Previously the consensus looked to be around Lean D for Senate and Lean R for House, but it now looks more like Tilt D for Senate and Likely R for House.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 18):

AZ D+4.9 (-1.1)
CO D+8.8 (+0.9)
FL R+4.4 (-0.2)
GA D+3.7 (nc)
NH D+7.4 (-0.4)
NV R+0.2 (-0.5)
NC R+2.0 (-0.1)
OH R+0.9 (+0.7)
PA D+3.6 (-2.1)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

This seems like noise-level movement, except in Pennsylvania.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

House R chances (most to least):

JHK 86.5 (+5.

I love it when Atlas' computer system thingy translates 8+) to

Either that or JHK thinks this will be a totally rad midterm. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 18):

AZ D+4.9 (-1.1)
CO D+8.8 (+0.9)
FL R+4.4 (-0.2)
GA D+3.7 (nc)
NH D+7.4 (-0.4)
NV R+0.2 (-0.5)
NC R+2.0 (-0.1)
OH R+0.9 (+0.7)
PA D+3.6 (-2.1)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

This seems like noise-level movement, except in Pennsylvania.

We can see Ryan, Barnes, Fetterman, McMullin and FRANKEN all win

McMULLIN doesn't count as a D takeover because he said he won't caucus with anyone just vote individual

[Person Man]

538 polling averages for key Senate races (change since Oct. 18):

AZ D+4.9 (-1.1)
CO D+8.8 (+0.9)
FL R+4.4 (-0.2)
GA D+3.7 (nc)
NH D+7.4 (-0.4)
NV R+0.2 (-0.5)
NC R+2.0 (-0.1)
OH R+0.9 (+0.7)
PA D+3.6 (-2.1)
UT R+7.8 (nc)
WI R+2.9 (nc)

This seems like noise-level movement, except in Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania has had few polls except Republican pollsters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA should be included Change is a good pollster and Grassley is only ahead by 3

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA should be included Change is a good pollster and Grassley is only ahead by 3

Iowa's average is Grassley+6.9.  If it gets any closer I'll include it next time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/21/iowa-senate-franken-grassley-midterms/10564937002/

Rs are worried about Grassley

[Hollywood]

This Thread is worth a read by Elliott G. Morris about the "Center Street Pac" Polls
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583122747492028416

What do you think?

P. S. Leave a Comment below if you have a thought!

Called it.  The author comes to the same conclusions immediately after reviewing the Ohio Poll, and the pollsters claim of mere incompetence was rightly disregarded as insincere.  There's no weighting method that justifies an over-representation of Democrats by 10-12 points.  

Am I mad at the political hack pollster for being a political hack pollster?  No.  They get paid to be POS Political Hacks.  At the time these polls came out, I blamed Nate Silver and 538 for putting out Center Streets fabricated poll, because there was no rational for disseminating it.   No one can possibly argue that 538 has any credibility when it averages so many BS polls from PAC Groups.