Side note: I forget who, but someone said Georgia is not a state where Dobbs is likely to hurt Republicans. I strongly disagree with that; it’ll hurt in the Atlanta suburbs/greater metro area.
I somewhat disagree here: I actually think Dobbs (if it in fact helps at all) provides more possibility for an uptick for Democrats in rural areas.
The simple reality is that pro-choice support is higher than Democratic support in most rural (white) areas, while metro support on both fronts is closer in alignment (lots of flux in metro areas, however, because you have sizeable chunks of black voters who are not pro-choice and educated white Rs who are pro-choice).
Georgia has a lot of pro life blacks who will vote for the Reverend. The north Atlanta suburbs are an awful fit for Walker and don’t forget the GOP is more or less maxed with rural whites here. Gwinnett, Forsyth have trended over 10% D in both 2016-20 and Henry, Cobb, Douglas have had 10% trends along with 6-10% the past two cycles. Even if the Democratic trends slow in these counties it might not be enough for Walker.
