Quinnipiac SHOCK POLL in GA: Warnock +10

[Lief 🗽]

Wow!

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ga/ga06292022_gqqc38.pdf

Warnock 54
Walker 44

Kemp 48
Abrams 48

Biden Approval: 33 - 60

[ajc0918]

Walker is a terrible candidate. GOP should cut him off to go after other seats.

Tilt D.

[GALeftist]

This post was fact checked by real American patriots – TRUE

In all seriousness Warnock is favored here imo. Walker is a bad candidate. That being said I do not expect there to be anywhere near this wide of a gulf.

[Devils30]

Warnock is gonna win 62-63% in Gwinnett and 57-58% in Cobb. No it will not be anywhere near 10% but trends are real.

[Ferguson97]

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

[Brittain33]

It’s too bad Walker’s terrible press makes it hard to discern a Dobbs effect here.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

Ding ding ding we have a winner.

[TodayJunior]

Candidates matter. States' trends matter. Warnock is favored and might even avoid a runoff. If I'm honest, I've gone back and forth with calling Georgia a swing/blue state, so as of right now, I'm not going to call Georgia a blue state (yet), but it's getting on that train like Virginia did.

[kwabbit]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news everyone thought WARNOCK was done for HA

[kwabbit]

I wonder if they weight by region. Might be hard to reach the rural folk so Atlanta could be oversampled.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm very close to never citing another poll again.

[Ferguson97]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interestingly, the Senate race has moved much more than the Governor's race since their last poll in January.  I would guess this is at least partly due to the effective pro-Warnock and anti-Walker ads I've seen on TV for the past several weeks.

January:

Walker 49   (Walker+1)
Warnock 48

Kemp 49     (Kemp +2)
Abrams 47


June:

Warnock 54  (Warnock+10)
Walker 44

Kemp 48     (tied)
Abrams 48


Net change:

Walker+1 => Warnock+10  =  Warnock+11

Kemp+2 => tied   =  Abrams+2

[RI]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1542212501001183232

[kwabbit]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

[Minnesota Mike]

Candidates matter. States' trends matter. Warnock is favored and might even avoid a runoff. If I'm honest, I've gone back and forth with calling Georgia a swing/blue state, so as of right now, I'm not going to call Georgia a blue state (yet), but it's getting on that train like Virginia did.

I think a runoff is unlikely regardless of who wins. The only 3rd party candidate is the Libertarian and they traditionally only get 1-2% so unless it is extremely close (possible) no runoff.

And yes candidates matter no matter what some on this board repeatedly say.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Candidates matter. States' trends matter. Warnock is favored and might even avoid a runoff. If I'm honest, I've gone back and forth with calling Georgia a swing/blue state, so as of right now, I'm not going to call Georgia a blue state (yet), but it's getting on that train like Virginia did.

It's a blue not red waves and Rs keep saying it's an R just because it's a Midterm, Steve Konraki said it can be a blue or red Wave

I would love this to be in the history books Biden defy expectations and win a Supermajority H and Filibuster prpof S as my map says not R nut maps😊😊😊

I think a runoff is unlikely regardless of who wins. The only 3rd party candidate is the Libertarian and they traditionally only get 1-2% so unless it is extremely close (possible) no runoff.

And yes candidates matter no matter what some on this board repeatedly say.

[wbrocks67]

Well, I guess you can't explain it away by saying its too D-leaning given Biden's 33-60 approval, which is likely not even that bad in reality.

But this does just go to show that once again, Biden's approval is not a proxy at *all* for support this year, and again, there are a lot of D-leaning groups who are saying they may disapprove of Biden but are still going to vote D.

Also the poll was taken mostly after Roe, June 23-27, which is of note.

Though Warnock outperforming Abrams by 10% is staggering. Though it would be quite something if Warnock was so strong that he dragged Abrams over the finish line. She should be the one you would think would most benefit from Roe, since GOV has the final decisions here in GA.

[wbrocks67]

None of this is particularly surprising though:

When it comes to Warnock's personal traits, voters say:

54 - 33 percent that he is honest;
56 - 34 percent that he has good leadership skills;
59 - 33 percent that he cares about average Georgians.
When it comes to Walker's personal traits, voters say:

43 - 39 percent that he is not honest;
43 - 37 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
44 - 42 percent that he cares about average Georgians.

[Horus]

I wonder if they weight by region. Might be hard to reach the rural folk so Atlanta could be oversampled.

Polls in 2018 and 2020 were quite accurate in Georgia so this would be a very new and surprising development.

Anyways, this matches what I'm seeing on the ground. Cobb and north Fulton are filled to the brim with moderate ticket spitting white folks. Of course it doesn't hurt Warnock is a great candidate, fundraiser and workhorse while Walker has serious brain damage.

[Politician]

Lol. To anyone who believes this, here's what Quinnipiac had two years ago:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=384252.0

[wbrocks67]

Not sure how Biden can be at -27 and Walker is leading by +10. One of those things isn't true, unless a lot of Biden's disapproval comes from "he's not progressive enough".

also just look at 18-34, the key demo

Biden approval 26/65
Warnock winning 66/32

[kwabbit]

I wonder if they weight by region. Might be hard to reach the rural folk so Atlanta could be oversampled.

Polls in 2018 and 2020 were quite accurate in Georgia so this would be a very new and surprising development.

Anyways, this matches what I'm seeing on the ground. Cobb and north Fulton are filled to the brim with moderate ticket spitting white folks. Of course it doesn't hurt Warnock is a great candidate, fundraiser and workhorse while Walker has serious brain damage.

I don’t doubt that this poll may be reasonably accurate for North Fulton or Cobb, that’s kind of my point. My question is whether Atlanta suburbs are being over sampled since they are the type of place to have Biden disapproval Warnock supporting voters. Polls in Georgia have been accurate but Quinnipiac was a major exception, with a Biden +7 as I recall.

[wbrocks67]

Either the polling industry has collapsed to the point where it’s more accurate to ignore every poll or there is now a historic disconnect between presidential approval and voting intention.

There are definitely plenty of Biden disapproval/Warnock voters, but this poll has nearly 40% of Warnock’s voters in that category. Georgia isn’t the place where Dobbs should hurt the GOP very much either. Are they getting droves of Romney-Trump voters?

I mean this is clearly true to an extent, because not a single poll has shown Dems losing the GCB by 27 points.

Trump's approval ratings were similarly terrible, and Republicans "only" lost the congressional vote by 8%.

Well, you’d expect the Democrats to be losing the GCB by 5+ points given Biden’s approvals and for states to reflect that. Not a 10pt Dem swing from 2020 even as he is sitting at Trump numbers. He’s actually worse than Trump was at this time and almost monotonically losing approval as his presidency moves forward.

Presidential approval is a leading indicator, so maybe things will align as expected, but right now there’s something off.

that's the point though - it's not. it may have been in the past, especially when approval was directly linked, like in Trumps case, b/c his die-hards always say they supported him no matter what. Biden is a different beast though, because many Ds or D-leaners say they 'disapprove' for a multitude of reasons but will still be voting D this year. that's why prez approval is just not as big of a factor IMO this year

again, just look at the 18-34 #s i posted above. young people 'disapprove' of Biden for many reasons. but they don't disapprove enough to vote for Rs.